NCAA First Half Bets.....

**The Seer** · 11-16-10, 04:53 PM

my two props covered my loss on the redskins, thank God. I just threw a little on Duke and Vil.

**SoCalFisher** · 11-16-10, 06:38 PM

Damn I missed the Nova half(2nd half was -12.5 for me did they cover first?, just curious.)
What # do you have for Duke Seer? I get -14.5 1st half.

**The Seer** · 11-16-10, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by SoCalFisher

Damn I missed the Nova half(2nd half was -12.5 for me did they cover first?, just curious.) What # do you have for Duke Seer? I get -14.5 1st half.

nova didn't cover the first and i missed the 2nd. Duke is 14.5.

**SoCalFisher** · 11-16-10, 07:27 PM

nova covered 2nd half. I'm running with Duke 1st half with ya Seer. -14.5

Lets cash em!!!

**jgray** · 11-16-10, 08:46 PM

I've been monitoring this thread the last few plays and I had a thought. Wouldn't a pace component be an appropriate filter here? Case in point UCLA (no cover) vs. Duke (cover). Duke, willing to run on every possession, has many more possession in the course of a half increasing the margin for error. UCLA, on the other hand willing to milk the clock and run a half court offense has less possessions to extend a lead. I realize we are looking at only a few plays here so the sample size is small, but I wanted share the thought.

**SoCalFisher** · 11-16-10, 08:54 PM

Cash that ticket Seer!!!

**Joe Sharp** · 11-16-10, 10:51 PM

Got my money back on Nova 2nd half and cashed a nice one on Duke. Good stuff.

Jgray.... you make a valid point but over a bigger sample size I think you'll see that tempo is factored into the line. But we'll see what happens it may be worth adding a filter or two.

I believe so far 1st halves are 4-2 while 2nd halves after a loss are 2-0. With one push.

**Joe Sharp** · 11-17-10, 12:01 PM

Looks like there may be a play on St. Johns (v Columbia) Tonight.

6 - 2 - 1 on Individual Plays (No chase on a Push)

**Skyliners2010** · 11-17-10, 12:06 PM

Great stuff guys..thanks for the info.

**cant call it** · 11-17-10, 12:36 PM

St johns -18.5
ml-3200
1h -10.5
no 1/2 ml
5dimes

**Joe Sharp** · 11-17-10, 12:52 PM

Thanks cci

Villanova (v BU) just popped up on the radar as well. It's right on the border though... not sure it'll stay a play.

**cant call it** · 11-17-10, 01:16 PM

no problem chief. I want to see where this goes. apparently my strategery is not working cause i am down 150 right now.
a friend of mine told me to take the ml in hockey pick whoever the fave is and it works 60-70 % of the time but i have not gotten to tracking those to see if he is for real or not

**cant call it** · 11-17-10, 01:43 PM

looks like villy has 1/2 time ML which would kick it out of our system we are using in this thread

**The Seer** · 11-17-10, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by SoCalFisher

Cash that ticket Seer!!!

I did

**saints1856** · 11-17-10, 04:22 PM

I'm kinda worried about Columbia since they are shooting .521 FG % for the year... Then again I saw St.Johns play against St.Mary's and they are young and VERY athletic. I see them getting better every game with Lavin coaching them and I can see a 39-26 halftime score - which would mean a 1st half cover

**illarytot** · 11-17-10, 04:43 PM

I like your system. TY

**HOOKEMcnh** · 11-17-10, 06:56 PM

What kind of record did this have last year?

**Joe Sharp** · 11-17-10, 07:56 PM

I'd have to do some digging to get the records but straight plays average just under 60% while chasing the 2nd half increases that quite a bit.

I'll look over my notes and share them here over the next few days.

**Joe Sharp** · 11-17-10, 08:42 PM

Columbia just hit FOUR 3's in a ROW...

**jgray** · 11-17-10, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by Joe Sharp

Columbia just hit FOUR 3's in a ROW...

Well, they system says double down. Anybody comfortable doing that after the shooting display by Columbia in the 1st half?

**Joe Sharp** · 11-17-10, 08:57 PM

Dyami Starks went 5 of 7 from 3. They are both just launching 3's it's ridiculous. I'll play it but it'll be interesting for sure.

Wow. I've got -11.5. I thought it would be a bit less than that.

**ACoochy** · 11-17-10, 09:02 PM

On it at -11 (thegreek)...GL

**jgray** · 11-17-10, 09:05 PM

I played -11 at 5dimes. Let's see what happens.

**jgray** · 11-17-10, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by Joe Sharp

Dyami Starks went 5 of 7 from 3. They are both just launching 3's it's ridiculous. I'll play it but it'll be interesting for sure. Wow. I've got -11.5. I thought it would be a bit less than that.

Originally posted by ACoochy

On it at -11 (thegreek)...GL

Originally posted by jgray

I played -11 at 5dimes. Let's see what happens.

**ACoochy** · 11-17-10, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by ACoochy

On it at -11 (thegreek)...GL

Like stealing candy from a baby oooohhhhh yeah

well done to those that were on it....CK is not someone id like to go up against in a handicapping contest anyday.....GL

**Joe Sharp** · 11-17-10, 10:41 PM

Individual Plays
7 - 3 - 1

"Chase"
7 - 0

A couple of Notes: If you plan on following this thread and putting any $$ on these plays please take a moment to realize what a UNIT is to you. Always play 1 Unit on the 1st half KNOWING that it is very possible that you may have to play 2 on the 2nd half. It's not smart to step out on any one play.... Trust me: there will be plenty of games this season. This system has been Very profitable over the years but there is ALWAYS variance.

Also, When I post a record here I do so in an attempt to keep track of the games that I feel fall into the Criteria of the System. It is NOT my own personal record!

Cheers!!

**SoCalFisher** · 11-17-10, 11:45 PM

Congrats boys. Been away all day. Missed out.....

.

Droid 2 looks like my next investment so this doesnt happen again!!!!

**illarytot** · 11-18-10, 05:58 AM

it seems 1-1, not so bad

**Joe Sharp** · 11-18-10, 10:10 AM

Potential 11/18 Plays (All times EST)

6pm NC State (East Carolina)
7pm Boston College (Yale)*
7pm Florida State (Fla Int)
8pm LSU (Tenn-Martin)**

*I will be at the Boston College game tonight!!
** LSU is like Nova last night - Right on the cusp & may not make the cut. (Nova Covered the 1st half).

**HOOKEMcnh** · 11-18-10, 11:14 AM

When you bet the second half, are you betting double the first half? (Ex. 1 unit on the first half-loss, 2 units on 2nd half or 1 unit?)

**SoCalFisher** · 11-18-10, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by HOOKEMcnh

When you bet the second half, are you betting double the first half? (Ex. 1 unit on the first half-loss, 2 units on 2nd half or 1 unit?)

yes, first half loss= doubling your bet 2nd half, so be careful.

**Joe Sharp** · 11-18-10, 11:32 AM

See Post #61. You do not have to double down but if you plan to... decrease your 1st half bet. Historically if the 1st half misses the probability of the 2nd half hitting increases. So it makes sense to increase the bet.

**SoCalFisher** · 11-18-10, 11:34 AM

Joe, why is LSU on cusp??
What book do you use to check m/lines?

**Joe Sharp** · 11-18-10, 12:15 PM

I check The Greek and my locals site (which runs on aggregate offshore odds).

The first Criterion is a Full Game Line of at least -15.5. When I looked this morning LSU was sitting right at 15.5 so if it dips below... it's not a system play. Actually it looks as though MOST of these lines are going DOWN. The only DEFINITE play right now is on Boston College.

***Wow. I might make a play on East Carolina ML. The line went from 17.5 to 13 in just a few hours!!

NC State = No Play

**SoCalFisher** · 11-18-10, 12:27 PM

thanks for reply, my locals site has ZERO m/lines.