MadCapper's Baseball Futures (You can bump this up at seasons end!)

[MadCapper]

I will post my strongest future bets in this thread. This will include: season long props, division and league winners, and season win totals.

Feel free to bump this up at seasons end, or during the season, whether it looks good or sh!tty!

[MadCapper]

Play 1- (Already posted in the other thread)

D-Backs +1215 to win the National League

I really love the value here. With Webb and Haren, the D-Backs have one of the best, if not the best, starting pitching duos in the National League.

Their young starts were good last year and will only get better. Justin Upton will become a superstar. Chris Young and Stephen Drew will keep getting better. Byrnes is their sparkplug!

[MadCapper]

Play 2-

Orioles UNDER 65 WINS -115

Bang this one hard. The American League is too damn good for this subpar team to win 65 games.

Sorry MOFO. But this is the TRUTH!

[MadCapper]

Play 3-

Reds OVER 76.5 WINS -115

There are no dominant teams in this division, giving the Reds an outside chance at reaching .500. They are a young scrappy team with a solid starting rotation and a underrated bullpen. Don't be shocked if they win 82.

[MadCapper]

Play 4-

Angels OVER 92 WINS -115

Simple. This team is good. They have very good young starting pitching. If KRod has his head on straight they should easily win this division. I am not sold on Seattle just yet. Hunter will help this team a lot. Just picture Mathews and Hunter roaming that outfield! Garland is a nice addition to the staff that already includes Lackey, Weaver, Escobar.

[Glenn Danzig]

How much do the Texas Rangers offer this year? They are playing in a weak division and they have the power to win at least 90 games this year.

[Poker_Beast]

Go Cards!

[MadCapper]

How much do the Texas Rangers offer this year? They are playing in a weak division and they have the power to win at least 90 games this year.

HUH???

Power to win at least 90 games this year? Wheres the pitching? How will they win 90 games this year? They won 75 last year!!! They did not improve at all! If you think Hamilton is the answer you are mitaken!

[Kellen]

Im with you on O's under 65 and Reds over 76.5. The Reds can put up runs. They have a lot of power. As long as the pitching is decent this year, they should go .500 fairly easily. I cant agree with you on the Dbacks though. I got the Braves to win the NL and the WS.

[MadCapper]

Play 5-

Giants OVER 72 WINS

I think they improved by adding Rowand and losing Bonds. They have a very good starting rotation. I fthey can find some consistency in the bullpen they should win close to 80.

[seaborneq]

I love the Cards at 9-1 to win the division in some places.

[mofome]

Play 2-

Orioles UNDER 65 WINS -115

Bang this one hard. The American League is too damn good for this subpar team to win 65 games.

Sorry MOFO. But this is the TRUTH!

unfortunately, they will be disgusting.

[matskralc]

Play 5-

Giants OVER 72 WINS

I think they improved by adding Rowand and losing Bonds. They have a very good starting rotation. I fthey can find some consistency in the bullpen they should win close to 80.

Their rotation is good, but not good enough to help an offense that'll be lucky to post 700 runs. Seriously, Bengie Molina at cleanup hitter?

[MadCapper]

Their rotation is good, but not good enough to help an offense that'll be lucky to post 700 runs. Seriously, Bengie Molina at cleanup hitter?

Its the NL. That may be enough!

[Ganchrow]

Comparing Season Win Totals

The attached spreadsheet may be used to compare different season totals between books.

Season Totals Worksheet.xls

For example:
Baltimore
Let's say that your handicapping tells you that you expect Baltimore on average to win 73 games next season. Pinnacle and Greek are offering the following:

WSEX
o73½ -125
u73½ -105

Greek
o70½ -240
u70½ +200

Which is better?

Enter Expected Season Wins (73), First Total (73.5), First Over Line (-125), First Under Line (-105), Second Total (70.5), Second Over Line (-240), and Second Under Line (+200) into the spreadsheet.

You see that the WSEX line implies a 15.8% expected loss on the over and a 4.0% expected win on the under.

You see that the Greek line implies a 7.5% expected loss on the over and a 4.2% expected win on the under.

Therefore, the Greek under would yield slightly greater expected profit than the WSEX under, and the Greek over would yield considerably lower expected loss than the WSEX over. This makes sense when we consider that in this particular market WSEX is charging 6.35% vig, market while The Greek is only charging 3.77%.^*

Lastly the equivalent over and under lines at the bottom of the spreadsheet show what the lines would need to be at the second book to match the expected profit or loss at the first book. In this case we see that in terms of expected profit, o70½ -345.4 is equivalent to o73½ -125 and u70½ +199.3 is equivalent to u73½ -105.
<hr>
^* -105/-125 => overround of 105/(100+105) + 125/(100+125) ≈ 1.067751; so vig = 1 - 1/1.067751 ≈ 6.35%.
^* +200/-240 => overround of 100/(100+200) + 240/(100+240) ≈ 1.039216; so vig = 1 - 1/1.039216 ≈ 3.77%.

[MadCapper]

Ganchrow,

Thats some amazing stuff. Thank you for sharing!

[MadCapper]

unfortunately, they will be disgusting.

Mofo,

Can they even win 60?

[MadCapper]

Play 6-

Rangers UNDER 75 WINS -115

Pretty bad lineup. Pretty bad starting pitching. Pretty bad defense.

This team will struggle to win 70.

[MadCapper]

Play 3-

Reds OVER 76.5 WINS -115

There are no dominant teams in this division, giving the Reds an outside chance at reaching .500. They are a young scrappy team with a solid starting rotation and a underrated bullpen. Don't be shocked if they win 82.

Now 79½ at TheGreek!

[OLGC_Slayer]

Now 79½ at TheGreek!

I really like the Reds this year. That division is pretty weak. I think the pen is underrated and they've got alot of firepower with Dunn and Votto and Phillips. I like this bet.
I put a quarter unit on them to win the NL Pennant this year.

[MadCapper]

Have these lines changed since I posted them?

[EaglesPhan36]

BAL = 65.6
CIN = 78
SF = 70.5
LA = 91

One I might have to bite on is HOU at 74.5 for the Over. I know their pitching stinks, but so does the NL Central!

[mofome]

BAL = 65.6
CIN = 78
SF = 70.5
LA = 91

One I might have to bite on is HOU at 74.5 for the Over. I know their pitching stinks, but so does the NL Central!

houston is probably the worst team in baseball.

[EaglesPhan36]

Not with SF and Baltimore alive my friend.

[thezbar]

My plays are Detroit Over 94, Astros over 74 and Giants under 72. I hope to win at least two of the three,

[donjuan]

Giants improved by losing Bonds and adding Rowand? Are you serious? BP has the Giants scoring 3.99 runs per game. That is pathetic.

[treece]

I love the Cards at 9-1 to win the division in some places.

you can get +1100 over at diamond for that. i dont really like doing futures but they're better than a cd at a bank. this year i got 3:

Orioles under 65.5 -105-they lose 100 games easy, the miami heat of baseball.

Mariners over 84 -105-with the addition of bedard, they should win around 90

Rangers under 74.5 +110-they're almost as bad as the orioles.