At what price do you give up the points and take the ML in the NFL?

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  • harlee71
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-02-09
    • 7202

    #1
    At what price do you give up the points and take the ML in the NFL?
    I am having a hard time with it this week. Tough week out there for ML Dogs. I think this is about the point of the season where the lines are right about where they should be. I am usually up for 3-5 ML dogs, but this week I am having trouble finding one I really like.

    Bengals +162 or +3.5 -116
    Redskins +140 or +3 -113
    St Louis +150 or +3 EV

    These are marginal for those prices, but they do have value. Maybe I should double my unit bets and that would make my decision for me, or go 50-50 on the wagers and try to hit both with SU win.

    Maybe I am just to tired to process everything tonight.

    Any thoughts?
  • aceking
    SBR MVP
    • 09-07-05
    • 4782

    #2
    if line is +2.5 , take the dog ML instead .

    how many games are decided by 1 or 2 points ?
    Comment
    • rem sleep
      SBR MVP
      • 10-04-10
      • 1238

      #3
      it depends on the matchup, like last week the colts were -3 (-110) vs redskins and the ML was -170 colts before the game. I took the money line because it was only 60 to ensure a sure win. now the colts should've covered the spread easily but vinitari missed two field goals, it just depends on the situation
      Comment
      • shaunovery
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-15-07
        • 18143

        #4
        I agree +2.5 take the moneyline
        Comment
        • harlee71
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 12-02-09
          • 7202

          #5
          Anyone else?

          +2.5 but I also like playing a dog when they are going in the range of +175 - +275 up to about -5.5, but -3 at -150ish just doesnt get my motor turning.
          Comment
          • aceking
            SBR MVP
            • 09-07-05
            • 4782

            #6
            i have never won any bet above +150 .
            Comment
            • WeinketoWarrick
              SBR MVP
              • 05-30-09
              • 1698

              #7
              anything where the spread is one score or less is probably worth playing the ml on.
              Comment
              • Chimneyfish
                SBR MVP
                • 09-30-10
                • 1217

                #8
                Pretty rarely. Only when I think the dog will win by at least a touchdown.

                I don't think NE will be beating SD by that much.
                Comment
                • iMxth3xbossx5000
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-11-09
                  • 4983

                  #9
                  Take Miami over Pittsburgh
                  Comment
                  • harlee71
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 12-02-09
                    • 7202

                    #10
                    Why take Miami for just +135. I think you gotta take the 3 points there -112 if you play them. Am I wrong?

                    And why would you take NE at +115 when you can get +2.5 for -103

                    Common on here guys.
                    Comment
                    • dollarbill
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-22-09
                      • 1285

                      #11
                      Originally posted by iMxth3xbossx5000
                      Take Miami over Pittsburgh

                      My top play 16-17 @ the half just hoping Miami doesn't try for 2pt if/when they have score another TD.

                      Dallas zero wins at home should be favored by more then 3 and not being, it looks like the Oddsmaker is telling you to take the ML...........

                      Haven't looked at tonights game yet but it should be fun......... Has a home team won on Sunday night this year?
                      Comment
                      • Doug
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 08-10-05
                        • 6324

                        #12
                        I'm with the guys that take the ML under 3 points.

                        I'll also take some portion of any dog on the ML too, if I'm on the dog. Maybe $100 plus the help and $20 outright with a dog over 3 points....something close to that. It of course requires a good line, like MB.
                        Comment
                        • smarmy
                          SBR MVP
                          • 08-03-08
                          • 1863

                          #13
                          If the spread is 3 and under and the swing between RL and ML is 20 pts or more (-110/+110) you really have to take the ML I would think.
                          Comment
                          • LT Profits
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-27-06
                            • 90963

                            #14
                            ALWAYS take ML if you like dogs +2.5 or less.

                            At +3 or +3.5 like the games you have, just use the converter right here at SBR.
                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #15
                              Originally posted by smarmy
                              If the spread is 3 and under and the swing between RL and ML is 20 pts or more (-110/+110) you really have to take the ML I would think.
                              No not always, MLs vary.
                              Comment
                              • BettingWizard
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 11-28-09
                                • 6522

                                #16
                                Originally posted by LT Profits
                                ALWAYS take ML if you like dogs +2.5 or less.

                                At +3 or +3.5 like the games you have, just use the converter right here at SBR.
                                what % does an underdog lose by 1 or 2 (at any spread)?
                                Comment
                                • LT Profits
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 10-27-06
                                  • 90963

                                  #17
                                  +3 -110 is approx +135
                                  Comment
                                  • dollarbill
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 03-22-09
                                    • 1285

                                    #18
                                    update

                                    3/3 home team on Sunday Night losing the last 3.......

                                    Rodgers is not the same quarterback the Vikings saw in the first half of last season, and unfortunately for Minnesota, neither is Favre!

                                    After a quick look at this match-up I'm

                                    so I decided to flip a coin I pull out a coin and say heads the favorite and tails the dog before I flip, I look and it is a Candian penny? The flowers were showing so I guess it was tails.............

                                    Although I'm trying to read into what this "capper" meaning is;;;;;;


                                    Rodgers is not the same quarterback the Vikings saw in the first half of last season, and unfortunately for Minnesota, neither is Favre?????
                                    Comment
                                    • LT Profits
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-27-06
                                      • 90963

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by BettingWizard
                                      what % does an underdog lose by 1 or 2 (at any spread)?
                                      At any spread is irrelevant, you need push frequencies around the 1 and the 2. But since you asked. ALL dogs have lost by 1 or 2 points about 4.3% of the time.
                                      Comment
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