Obama is now the favorite, bet it now!

BigBollocks · 02-07-08, 03:11 AM

I was surprised to see the new Democratic primary numbers this morning. Unless I'm missing something with Super Delegates, I think Hillary and her machine is too much too overcome. In addition, I think we'll continue to see the media play up the race factor in order to scare more white voters away from Obama.

I also wouldn't put it past some influencial Republican figures to assist Hillary, as a Hillary win all but assures McCain of being the next President. Obama would win the South and many Midwestern states that Hillary won't, while the states that Hillary won (in the NE and California) will vote Democrat regardless. I still think Hillary's the favorite in the Democratic primary, thus lowering McCain's odds.

I guaranteed a lot of profit yesterday betting in-game at Matchbook. Regardless of who you WANT to win, I hope everyone scores a profit in these elections....

ritehook · 02-07-08, 03:49 AM

As I understand it, there's actually a lot of anti-Hillary people among the established political warhorses, who are usually chosen as "super delegates" to the convention bashes.

It's one of the reasons why Obama has done well in the caucuses, where the old pros tend to organize and run them, and herd the caucus attendees like sheep. Many of these old hacks don't think Hillary can win, too many negs.

Hillary may either have to have the required dels to win outright first ballot at the summer convention, or have almost enough to get over the top

If not, she'll have to do a lot of underhanded deal-making and log-rolling to swing it. And that will enrage the black voters (or their self-appointed spokespersons) who could desert the party if Barack is sacked.

He may not deserve favoritism at this point, but the candidates should rate about equal. He's likely to win almost all the remaining Feb primaries and caucuses, with Hill putting a lot eggs in the Texas basket

isetcap · 02-07-08, 06:06 AM

Originally posted by BigBollocks

I was surprised to see the new Democratic primary numbers this morning. Unless I'm missing something with Super Delegates, I think Hillary and her machine is too much too overcome. In addition, I think we'll continue to see the media play up the race factor in order to scare more white voters away from Obama.

I also wouldn't put it past some influencial Republican figures to assist Hillary, as a Hillary win all but assures McCain of being the next President. Obama would win the South and many Midwestern states that Hillary won't, while the states that Hillary won (in the NE and California) will vote Democrat regardless. I still think Hillary's the favorite in the Democratic primary, thus lowering McCain's odds.

I guaranteed a lot of profit yesterday betting in-game at Matchbook. Regardless of who you WANT to win, I hope everyone scores a profit in these elections....

The "Hillary Machine" required some maintenance that cost about 5 million dollars in the form of a payday loan to herself just so her campaign can come close to competing financially. Now she's begging for 4 more debates between the two of them simply because she can't afford the same level of exposure Obama can pay for. Obama has wisely only committed to one.

While Obama has done well in the South in Democratic primaries, he's got a long, long way to go before he can WIN in the South. His domination of Southern states is only among Southern Democrats. The results will be very different when the choice is between him and a Republican as opposed to Hillary.