NFL Free Pick: Rams and Chargers Over 45
Psst, hey buddy, you looking for some easy money? The numbers have been crunched and the results are in: Sunday's sharpest play on the NFL betting board is the total in the Chargers, Rams game set for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in St. Louis. Philip Rivers and his San Diego mates enter the Edward Jones Dome with a string of four consecutive 'overs' and will be shredding the pitiful Rams defense all afternoon.
Looking for a sharp play on the NFL betting odds board? Take the ‘over’ on Sunday afternoon’s matchup between the San Diego Chargers and St. Louis Rams at the Edward Jones Dome (1 p.m. ET, CBS).
The total opened at 44, but is now available at 45 at most offshore and Vegas outlets. 45 is a sizable number by NFL standards even in this high-scoring age, but it won’t be enough to keep the Chargers (4-1 O/U, 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) and Rams (2-3 O/U, 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) from blowing past it on the turf in St. Louis.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Philip Rivers and the San Diego offense played ‘over’ on its own, without any help from Sam Bradford and his operation on the St. Louis sideline.
The Bolts, of course, are likely to get plenty of help from the Rams’ defense, which was ripped for 44 points in a 38-point loss to lowly Detroit at Ford Field last week.
This is the Lions we're talking about, fellow NFL bettors. It usually takes Matt Stafford and company an entire month of games less a bye week to score that many points. With San Diego coming to town, it could get ugly in a hurry.
For their part, the Chargers have cashed the ‘over’ for totals bettors in four straight games, including on the 44-point number in their disappointing 35-27 loss at Oakland last week.
Prior to hitting the ‘over’ on Sunday, San Diego was too much for ‘under’ bettors against Arizona (over 47), Seattle (over 44), and Jacksonville (over 45½). The Chargers combined with their opponent to post 51, 47, and 52 points in those three games.
Now, San Diego goes up against a defense that just allowed 44 points on its own against one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Bolts bring the league’s top-ranked offense into Sunday’s game. Even in its loss to the Raiders last week, San Diego racked up 506 yards offense behind 431 passing yards from Rivers. Wide receiver Malcolm Floyd was his top target, catching eight balls for 213 yards with a touchdown against Oakland.
The Chargers rank first in total offense (461.8 YPG), first in passing (337.8 YPG), and second in scoring (28.0 PPG). Good luck with that, St. Louis.
That said, there are other factors conspiring to push this game ‘over’ the total.
The Rams should be able to score more than the six points they put up against Detroit last week. St. Louis managed 341 yards offense on Sunday despite its low scoring output.
Including last week’s disaster in the Motor City, the Rams rank 22nd against the pass (231.2 YPG). Not bad, right? Not when you consider which clubs St. Louis has played this season: Arizona, Oakland, Washington, Seattle, and Detroit. Of the five, only the Redskins have anything substantial to offer offensively.
San Diego isn’t a good defensive team, either. The Chargers are 20th in scoring defense (21.2 PPG), but that number gets much worse when they hit the road, let alone the Edward Jones Dome. In three away games this season, San Diego is allowing 27.7 points per game.
The teams last met in 2006, with the Bolts coming away with a 38-24 win at Qualcomm Stadium to cover as 9.5-point favorites. The game easily played ‘over’ the 45-point total for the third time in the last three meetings between San Diego and St. Louis.
The spread for Sunday’s matchup, in case you were wondering, has the Chargers as 8- to 9-point chalk against the Rams.
The trends are also working in ‘over’ bettors’ favor. San Diego is 23-10-3 O/U in its last 36 road games, and is 7-2 O/U in its last nine contests as an away fave. As for St. Louis, it’s cashed the ‘over’ in 12 of its last 16 home games when it’s getting 3½ to 10 points from its opponent.
Psst, hey buddy, you looking for some easy money? The numbers have been crunched and the results are in: Sunday's sharpest play on the NFL betting board is the total in the Chargers, Rams game set for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in St. Louis. Philip Rivers and his San Diego mates enter the Edward Jones Dome with a string of four consecutive 'overs' and will be shredding the pitiful Rams defense all afternoon.
Looking for a sharp play on the NFL betting odds board? Take the ‘over’ on Sunday afternoon’s matchup between the San Diego Chargers and St. Louis Rams at the Edward Jones Dome (1 p.m. ET, CBS).
The total opened at 44, but is now available at 45 at most offshore and Vegas outlets. 45 is a sizable number by NFL standards even in this high-scoring age, but it won’t be enough to keep the Chargers (4-1 O/U, 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) and Rams (2-3 O/U, 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) from blowing past it on the turf in St. Louis.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Philip Rivers and the San Diego offense played ‘over’ on its own, without any help from Sam Bradford and his operation on the St. Louis sideline.
The Bolts, of course, are likely to get plenty of help from the Rams’ defense, which was ripped for 44 points in a 38-point loss to lowly Detroit at Ford Field last week.
This is the Lions we're talking about, fellow NFL bettors. It usually takes Matt Stafford and company an entire month of games less a bye week to score that many points. With San Diego coming to town, it could get ugly in a hurry.
For their part, the Chargers have cashed the ‘over’ for totals bettors in four straight games, including on the 44-point number in their disappointing 35-27 loss at Oakland last week.
Prior to hitting the ‘over’ on Sunday, San Diego was too much for ‘under’ bettors against Arizona (over 47), Seattle (over 44), and Jacksonville (over 45½). The Chargers combined with their opponent to post 51, 47, and 52 points in those three games.
Now, San Diego goes up against a defense that just allowed 44 points on its own against one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Bolts bring the league’s top-ranked offense into Sunday’s game. Even in its loss to the Raiders last week, San Diego racked up 506 yards offense behind 431 passing yards from Rivers. Wide receiver Malcolm Floyd was his top target, catching eight balls for 213 yards with a touchdown against Oakland.
The Chargers rank first in total offense (461.8 YPG), first in passing (337.8 YPG), and second in scoring (28.0 PPG). Good luck with that, St. Louis.
That said, there are other factors conspiring to push this game ‘over’ the total.
The Rams should be able to score more than the six points they put up against Detroit last week. St. Louis managed 341 yards offense on Sunday despite its low scoring output.
Including last week’s disaster in the Motor City, the Rams rank 22nd against the pass (231.2 YPG). Not bad, right? Not when you consider which clubs St. Louis has played this season: Arizona, Oakland, Washington, Seattle, and Detroit. Of the five, only the Redskins have anything substantial to offer offensively.
San Diego isn’t a good defensive team, either. The Chargers are 20th in scoring defense (21.2 PPG), but that number gets much worse when they hit the road, let alone the Edward Jones Dome. In three away games this season, San Diego is allowing 27.7 points per game.
The teams last met in 2006, with the Bolts coming away with a 38-24 win at Qualcomm Stadium to cover as 9.5-point favorites. The game easily played ‘over’ the 45-point total for the third time in the last three meetings between San Diego and St. Louis.
The spread for Sunday’s matchup, in case you were wondering, has the Chargers as 8- to 9-point chalk against the Rams.
The trends are also working in ‘over’ bettors’ favor. San Diego is 23-10-3 O/U in its last 36 road games, and is 7-2 O/U in its last nine contests as an away fave. As for St. Louis, it’s cashed the ‘over’ in 12 of its last 16 home games when it’s getting 3½ to 10 points from its opponent.