Duke +3.5 Wednesday??

[zerocage]

The play for the day or what??

[Quebb Diesel]

take them ML if lawson is out...i cant believe the line is so high in UNC

[diogee]

I'm also on the ML if Lawson is out.

[freeVICK]

sorry boys but im on UNC. i think hansborough is too much for duke to handle. if you think about it, who is gonna stop him? certainly not singler.

[5 star bomb]

I have to dig into this game some more. My early lean is on UNC though... With or without Lawson

[2Pac]

Lawson is the difference, IMO. If he plays and plays well, UNC will win, and it won't be by less than 4. I don't know if they win without him.

If Duke can stop Hansbrough though...

Hell, I don't know.

I'm just going to sit back and enjoy with no money down.

[Panic]

Why bet a side, when the easy play is the over?

[Quebb Diesel]

in their last 10 meetings the game has gone over 160 three times. annnnnd out of the last 10 games any time the o/u was even close to 160 it went 1-3-1 favoring the under.

buuuut duke can stroke and theres no way this will be a huge blow out...if anything tease duke up to at least 8...in those last 10 games the avg. difference in scores has been 5.6 points.

i kind of like the under though. unc's transition o was next to nothing after lawson went out IMO and i dont see how theyll keep up w/ king, singler, and paulus beyond the arc. i like duke in the under...right now at least...

[diogee]

This line opened at 165.5 and is currently between 163 and 164...looks like the under is getting hammered early.

[freeVICK]

in their last 10 meetings the game has gone over 160 three times. annnnnd out of the last 10 games any time the o/u was even close to 160 it went 1-3-1 favoring the under.

buuuut duke can stroke and theres no way this will be a huge blow out...if anything tease duke up to at least 8...in those last 10 games the avg. difference in scores has been 5.6 points.

i kind of like the under though. unc's transition o was next to nothing after lawson went out IMO and i dont see how theyll keep up w/ king, singler, and paulus beyond the arc. i like duke in the under...right now at least...

keep in mind there will be 22K fans at chapel hill screaming theirs heads off. not so sure singler (freshman) and paulus can handle that.

[Quebb Diesel]

keep in mind there will be 22K fans at chapel hill screaming theirs heads off. not so sure singler (freshman) and paulus can handle that.

very true...paulus put up 21 @ UNC last year though so im not too worried about him...they have pretty much the same team minus mcroberts who i think was a overrated anyway...UNC did hand it to duke last year at home by 14 though...i dunno ive seen a lot of duke games this year...especially on the road...and im surprised by how tough they play in hostile environments...hopefully king and singler dont get too spooked in chapel hill!

[stingyrivers]

tease this:
(3tm 7 pt)

Duke +11

UCONN +10

Minn +2

at -120

not too shabby huh

[Quebb Diesel]

not too bad...id probably exchange uconn or minn for wisconsin -1/2 though...thats more of a guarentee IMO

[jjgold]

I am leaning to UNC

[brock]

I have not decided yet but should be a great game tonight

[LT Profits]

in their last 10 meetings the game has gone over 160 three times. annnnnd out of the last 10 games any time the o/u was even close to 160 it went 1-3-1 favoring the under.

Yes, but Duke plays a lot more up-tempo this season than in past years. In fact, the Dukies rank 15th in the nation in possessions per game with 73.9! UNC averages 76.9 possessions, which ranks sixth.

[MoneySportsGuy]

Who do you like LT?

[LT Profits]

I lean Duke side, but will most likely pass.

Definite pass on total.

[pavyracer]

The play for the day or what??

This game can go either way. I'm passing sides but I will consider the over if not high enough.

[curious]

Yes, but Duke plays a lot more up-tempo this season than in past years. In fact, the Dukies rank 15th in the nation in possessions per game with 73.9! UNC averages 76.9 possessions, which ranks sixth.

Points per possession for both UNC and Duke adjusted for SOS is 122. So, an average of 75.5 possessions per game per team and 122 points per 100 possessions = 75.5 x 2 x 122 / 100 = 151x1.22 = 184 more or less.

I say the Over is a good play.

[MoneySportsGuy]

curious what do you come up with with the kenpom stats and everything for the spread for UNC and Duke?

[JColli32]

Any final word on lawson yet?

[WileOut]

Its all about Lawson. I saw UNC's stats with Lawson and without him. It was about a 20 point offensive drop without him, 10% drop in FG% without him, every stat was extremely bad without lawson in the lineup. I am going to wait until I know if he is playing or not. If not I will hammer Duke. Duke is not close to the same team as last year. Henderson, Nelson, and Shyer are all 100% better basketball players.

Duke is BY FAR the better team without Lawson on the floor. With Lawson the teams are equal.

[MOMONEY]

i doubt he plays, considering it was a high ankle sprain he just had last game. i think the coaching staff has already made the decision but they will not announce it till game time to throw duke off a little bit. either way, i think you have to take duke plus the points, because if lawson was to somehow play, he won't be but 60-70%. this gives the edge to duke.

[LT Profits]

curious,

If you use 122 for both teams, you are ignoring both teams' defensive PPP. I average both.

My Pomeroy projection is North Carolina 81, Duke 77 (UNC -4, 158).

Here are the factors I used to get there:

Duke Off PPP = 1.216, UNC Def PPP = .898, Avg = 1.057
UNC Off PPP = 1.223, Duke Def PPP = .851, Avg = 1.037

Then account for home court by adding 1.4% to UNC and subtracting 1.4% from Duke:

Duke Avg = 1.057 x .986 = 1.042
UNC Avg = 1.037 x 1.014 = 1.052

Then multiply by each teams average possessions:

Duke = 1.042 x 73.9 = 77
UNC = 1.052 x 76.9 = 81

Keep in mind that this ignores injuries. So if UNC is -4 at fullstrength, I lean toward Duke +3.5 or +4 with Lawson out.

[MOMONEY]

I agree totally Profits. Key injury certainly should shift the favor to Duke. Still will propably come down to the wire though. I think the line will start dropping as the day goes on. How about you?

[zerocage]

Im seeing duke +4

[xyzky]

Duke +4
Duke ML +155
It will be a great game as usual with these two teams on ESPN.

[zerocage]

Always good for your viewing pleasure.

[bradleysnyder]

my pod is nc -4.........i like nc BIG tonight

[buztah]

Bradley, I think UNC wins by double digits. BIG WIN!

[Quebb Diesel]

Yes, but Duke plays a lot more up-tempo this season than in past years. In fact, the Dukies rank 15th in the nation in possessions per game with 73.9! UNC averages 76.9 possessions, which ranks sixth.

yeah i know...they get so many points off of the transition and king, singler, and paulus are deadly behind the arc...i think the over under can go either way, but if you watched that fsu/unc game you could easily tell how much of a hit UNC took in the transition w/ lawson out. i said duke could stroke earlier in this thread so i could easily see them put up points in the mid 80's, but with this heated rivalry i could see it being a game in the mid to high 70's making it hit the under. i dont think ill bet it though b/c it could easily go either way

[mofome]

gl tonight zero!!

[brock]

Lawson still a game time decision they just said on ESPN

[brock]

Lawson wont play they just tip off