Last Class fukkheads...you will either get this or

[Robust]

just like saying...on the early game I won a +210 dog...it wins...now on the late game I am taking a +160 dog...look how smart I am.... This is so simple to do...I used to do it with parlays years ago....

You are missing the point...this goof thinks he is actually teaching us that two plus signs do not equal a minus... I think most laughed at this thread...

LOL!!

i get ya now.. it's an ego thing.. ok.. i was looking at it more like teaching the newbies..

yeah.. agreed.. he didn't invent the wheel or the lines.. he just used them to his advantage with a well known method..

and all this info is in the Handicapper think tank.. but you gotta know ALL the lingo to follow along.. i was making it simpler for.. dare I say.. the simple folk?

Robust

[Robust]

Also look at the time of his post...go back into his post log and try to find the 9:04pm bet... I do not need to look it will not exist....as usual after the fact posting this guy is sharp!

lol.. after the fact, I am a millionaire.. but i digress...

Robust

[G's pks]

LOL!!

i get ya now.. it's an ego thing.. ok.. i was looking at it more like teaching the newbies..

yeah.. agreed.. he didn't invent the wheel or the lines.. he just used them to his advantage with a well known method..

and all this info is in the Handicapper think tank.. but you gotta know ALL the lingo to follow along.. i was making it simpler for.. dare I say.. the simple folk?

Robust

Let's just let him think he is the teacher he wants to be...seeing he has decided to educate everyone...

[statnerds]

Let's just let him think he is the teacher he wants to be...seeing he has decided to educate everyone...

still outsourcing to hit that 50 posts a day mark?

[bretb27]

haha.. sharps. you make me laugh. Do you want sharp money or guaranteed money? Sounds like someone lost a lot of bread on the fins last night.

it simply means you over thought and pissed money away and tried to be much sharper than you will ever be...

you threw money away on the second bet...

[statnerds]

You've lost me, but I'm 96.4% sure you have no clue what you're talking about.

If you'd like to explain further, giving the context of the bets and why you thought they were +EV I'd certainly listen.

I will reply to an earlier post cause this thought just crossed my mind after I started this response.

Any historical data or in game predictors will be severely flawed because they are not situation specific. for example, the biggest criticism I see is taking the Pats at +160 when they were down by 7. So taking the team a few years removed from being the best offense in the history of the NFL, a team averaging 370 yards on offense entering last night's game and a future Hall of Fame QB that is 40-11 vs his div was a bad play? my fault I should have bet them at a Pick and expected them to score first and lead the entire game. Kind of like the NFL's number 1 defense this year getting +10.5 after New Orleans scored on their first possession.

Any way, any historical data is flawed because it lacks the specifics. your data isn't going to tell you the likelihood of a Tom Brady team coming back against a team with several injuries on defense and playing the second of back-to-back div tilts. Data is awesome and I love it, but you must also be able to process the variables that numbers can't.

Damn-it I wrote a something better than the above at work today, but that is in my car and will need to be retrieved at a later date.

But back to the original quote, which quoted my assertion that no NFL quarter ever finished with 1 point scored. I guess I have to spell this out so...

The first time I bet Over last night was at the 9:50 mark of the first quarter. So why would the Total be 3.5 points lower than the Closer just because both teams had a possession and were forced to punt? You know what, I will try to only pose this as questions...What was the expected score in the first quarter last night based on the closing total? After 5:50 minutes of play why it would be adjusted sharply downward by 7%+? How many points were scored per minute at the 9:50 mark? How many points were scored per minute at the 5:48 mark after the Fins went up 7-0? Is this starting to get the wheels turning or must I go on?

And I can't believe nobody had the foresight to bring up the fact that since 2000 in the NFL, the team scoring first wins the game 61% of the time, which would give New England a generic probability of coming back to win the game at 39% which would equate to generic odds of +156....juiced as hell indeed. And do you think I would make a full Arb out of the Dolphins +405, or just enough to cover the cost of the New England play + administrative costs?

And in closing, dig the sand out of your vaginas and seriously digest the following thought, notion or possibility: Live Betting Totals will be incorrect often because the generation of points, to a certain extent, is random.

[Sunde91]

Why are people still calling this "guaranteed money"?? I don't believe he had Fins PK pre-game, and in any case, this is only "guaranteed" post facto.

"Guaranteed" denotes zero risk, which wasn't initially established. The risk was Fins win without forfeiting lead to allow a hedge.

[statnerds]

The risk was Fins win without forfeiting lead to allow a hedge.

Do any of you people actually read the words I write?

And I can't believe nobody had the foresight to bring up the fact that since 2000 in the NFL, the team scoring first wins the game 61% of the time, which would give New England a generic probability of coming back to win the game at 39% which would equate to generic odds of +156..


The original risk was that the Patriots at +160 was an incorrect line based solely on the historic winning percentages of teams that score first in an NFL game. There were zero plans on a future hedge. Fukk you guys only throw around statements without reading anything or asking questions...

here is a question I would ask if I were one of you, but seems you all know everything already:

What was the line before I got it at +160?

[Sunde91]

What? What's the criteria for that stat? What kind of score first? TD, FG, Safety? Relative to what spread? Does it factor in being down 7 on the road? Under the circumstances, 4 cents is not a good advantage at all. It's actually probably a disadvantage. Why are you asking us what the line was before +160?

This is bizarre

Also, live in totals are usually in-line with the pace for the game total, i.e. points per minute. It takes the pace +/- however many points the current total is off the pace by. So if it's a total of 60, the pace is 1 point/minute, and there's 21 points after 10 minutes, the live-in total will be 71 because though it's currently 11 points ahead of the closing total atm, it is still PROJECTED the same for the rest of the game. So what was the closing total last night? 45 or something? The live-in total being 3.5 points lower at the 9:50 mark of 1st Q was dead on with the game pace...Scoring is random, but if you want to make a live-in total, you can't factor randomness, so you have to keep with the projection. No other way.

It is far easier to grasp the practicality of the pace/adjusted total in Basketball with relatively constant scoring, but the principle is the same for Football.

[nobs]

I learned that 95% of this board never post a play BEFORE the game, but break their necks to run to the board to show off how amazingly brilliant they think they are.


Yeah yeah, I was all over the Patriots +160 when the Dolphins were up, of course I said nothing about it, but now that the Patriots are up and Miami is +405 ML the most important thing in the world to me, is to tell the whole board that I was on the Patriots when they were losing. I am so brilliant and wonderful. I never lose ( since I dont post until after the fact ) , but still I am so great and awesome. By the way, I will be back to after tonights game to tell you who you should have bet on and to tell you that I had the winning side, whichever side that turns out to be. Damn I am the best

[GiveMeaBJ]

I think the reason people don't get it is because they don't see your units used.

If you play Pats +160 for 2 units to win 3.2 units and then Miami +405 for 2 units to win 8.1 units it doesnt really make sense. If you play Pats +160 for 2 units then Miami +405 for .8 units then maybe they will understand.

While the Pats were winning he had the oppo to lay a half unit to insure he couldn't lose his bet. Nothing could happen that would make him lose. No comebacks, no collapses, nothing. He could simply go to sleep knowing when he woke up tomorrow he won a bet. If the Pats win he wins 2.4 units. If Miami wins he wins 1.24 units. How is this bad? Open your ******* eyes people.

[G's pks]

I learned that 95% of this board never post a play BEFORE the game, but break their necks to run to the board to show off how amazingly brilliant they think they are.

Yeah yeah, I was all over the Patriots +160 when the Dolphins were up, of course I said nothing about it, but now that the Patriots are up and Miami is +405 ML the most important thing in the world to me, is to tell the whole board that I was on the Patriots when they were losing. I am so brilliant and wonderful. I never lose ( since I dont post until after the fact ) , but still I am so great and awesome. By the way, I will be back to after tonights game to tell you who you should have bet on and to tell you that I had the winning side, whichever side that turns out to be. Damn I am the best

[G's pks]

waiting for his 1st half predictions in tonights game now that it is almost over...this guy is hilarious!

[nobs]

Its not how much was supposedly bet and on who.

We have all had winning bets, and we have all had losing bets, except of course those who only post after the game who all amazingly hit 99%.

Its just whats the point of running to the board acting like you are some type of god claiming you had the winning side AFTER the fact.

I mean if he wanted to approach it this way, why not start this thread when Miami was up 7-0 and let the board know he had supposedly just taken NE + 160 on Live in game, then 30 minutes or so later when he takes Miami +405 in game he could add that to the thread.

Of course he wont do that because 30 minutes later it could have been Miami 21-0 then his NE +160 looks real bad.

Im not trying to hate, Im just saying I respect more a poster like ZBOIZ who win or lose, at least posts his thoughts BEFORE the game.

Just no point in trying to be Mr. Genius, Teacher, Guru Whatever AFTER the fact.

And ur right, people will never " open their fking eyes" when he posts after the fact, hell we could all do that.

[statnerds]

I already told you pricks to wait for Cin to drop to 6.5 and then bet it

that is one freebie

I already took NYJ Over 37.5 yesterday cause that is off by 4 points.

that is two freebies

funny none of you guys showed up when I gave you the Bengals and the Jets to win outright in Week 2, 6 days before the facts. go look up my Miami at Pittsburgh Live Betting Thread when all the plays were posted in real time. total up the money I won and you didn't on that game.

and you are still missing the point of this thread

it isn't about posting winning tickets

it is about showing you that Live Betting is one of the few soft markets left

you fukkin guys are impossible

don't focus on the tickets or the bets. fukk the bets.

focus on the process.

I give it up, although I did give it the old college try.

Still nothing on the the adjustments on Totals on LB?

just insults?

And when the Bengals win by 20 this week and the Jets and Vikings score 46 points, come back and thank me for the winners. or just keep running your mouths. either way, they are the last winners you will see from me.

peace out bitches.

and one last time

fukk the bets.

focus on the process.

[G's pks]

[statnerds]

What? What's the criteria for that stat? What kind of score first? TD, FG, Safety? Relative to what spread? Does it factor in being down 7 on the road? Under the circumstances, 4 cents is not a good advantage at all. It's actually probably a disadvantage. Why are you asking us what the line was before +160? +165. I hit it and when I tried to confirm got the good ole 5Dimes line has changed....


Also, live in totals are usually in-line with the pace for the game total, i.e. points per minute.It takes the pace +/- however many points the current total is off the pace by. So if it's a total of 60, the pace is 1 point/minute, and there's 21 points after 10 minutes, the live-in total will be 71 because though it's currently 11 points ahead of the closing total atm, it is still PROJECTED the same for the rest of the game. So what was the closing total last night? 45 or something? 48.5The live-in total being 3.5 points lower at the 9:50 mark of 1st Q was dead on with the game pace...Scoring is random, but if you want to make a live-in total, you can't factor randomness, so you have to keep with the projection. No other way.

It is far easier to grasp the practicality of the pace/adjusted total in Basketball with relatively constant scoring, but the principle is the same for Football.

so after 5:50 minutes, it was 0 points per minute. after one score it was .76 pts/min which would be 46 for the game, but it went to 49.5 after the TD.

I guess the only other input I can offer is how many points is a score in basketball(easier) as opposed to a score in football?

[statnerds]

write it down Nancy

Cin 6.5
NYJ Ov 37.5

[Sunde91]

edit

[phillybadboy]

I learned that 95% of this board never post a play BEFORE the game, but break their necks to run to the board to show off how amazingly brilliant they think they are. Yeah yeah, I was all over the Patriots +160 when the Dolphins were up, of course I said nothing about it, but now that the Patriots are up and Miami is +405 ML the most important thing in the world to me, is to tell the whole board that I was on the Patriots when they were losing. I am so brilliant and wonderful. I never lose ( since I dont post until after the fact ) , but still I am so great and awesome. By the way, I will be back to after tonights game to tell you who you should have bet on and to tell you that I had the winning side, whichever side that turns out to be. Damn I am the best

agree

[Sunde91]

so after 5:50 minutes, it was 0 points per minute. after one score it was .76 pts/min which would be 46 for the game, but it went to 49.5 after the TD.

I guess the only other input I can offer is how many points is a score in basketball(easier) as opposed to a score in football?

No, the projected pace does not change, the total does. If the closing total is 48.5, the pace is .808 points/minute for the entire game as a PROJECTION. The pace of points already scored to minutes already elapsed is 100% useless to project an entire game on. It makes zero sense to make a pace for the game based on the variability within the game, i.e. the randomness of scoring. There could be 21 points in 5 minutes, but that doesn't make the pace 4.2 p/m with a projected total of 252..

When was the TD scored? If it was around 6:00, I don't know why it would have gone up to 49.5 from 48.5, as it (theoretically) should have stayed the same as the closing total as .808 (based on 48.5/60) x 9 (minutes elapsed) = about 7, dead on pace.

It's not exact, and there's rounding and a lot of variables and shit I don't know, but it gives you a general idea of where the adjusted total is coming from.

It's more intuitive in Basketball because there is constant scoring with each score counting as a relatively low amount, whereas in Football, there are long intervals of no scoring with sudden, relatively big spikes (like a TD). Most NBA totals are paced just about 4 p/m. This is easy to grasp as you just think of it as two 2-pointers/m. With Football, .808 p/m makes no sense on the surface because it's not even possible to score just 1 point.