Last Class fukkheads...you will either get this or

[statnerds]

or you are busy being G'sPicks

10/4/10 9:04pm Pending10/4/10 8:35pm Live In-Play Football 9225 New England Patriots +160* vs Miami Dolphins

now pay attention

10/4/10 10:16pm Pending10/4/10 8:35pm Live In-Play Football 9226 Miami Dolphins +405* vs New England Patriots


first, drop your ego.

second, read what each play means.

third, process the info in your head and tell me what you just learned about Live-Betting.

[fsugolf]

I learned you can't lose no matter what team wins now

[OmgUrMom]

do you think both plays had value at the time you were betting them? otherwise scalping to just ensure a profit is not necessarily the best option with the miami +405 or do you think it had value as well?

You seem to do very well with the live betting, something i think i may explore, seems to be more exploitable lines for sure.

[cdardano]

I give you props for this play! Very smart move!

I give you props for this play! Very smart move!

[statnerds]

fukk it is late. I need to bang my wife, get some sleep, wake up and go to the gym and then go to work (fukkin government with their whole proof of income and 100,000 IRS agents)

I'll grade your papers in the a.m.

FSU you have a lifetime passing grade my friend.

[fsugolf]

FSU you have a lifetime passing grade my friend.

Can I turn this into my math professor, so I don't have to show up for the rest of the semester???

[daneault23]

This may be a dumb question, but can you do this at the same book? Wouldn't they obviously see you do this

[JW Cash]

Is it just me...or do I need a drink....

I think we know the answer.........dont we ????

[statnerds]

all I'm sayin is that the market said the game was a pick em

and that one of the teams had to score first

and that the other team would probably score at some point too

and that, in technical terms, a bunch of NFL games have actual lead changes

and that I got real lucky last night, not only with these, but my Over 41, 43, and 44.5. not lucky on Over 9.5 in 3rd quarter, nailed that fukker.

the point is if you take some time to understand what the line says, both spread and total, you should have solid expectations of what Live-Betting should look like.

if we assume the market is efficient

is it?

therefore the line is correct

and one team has to score first

just saying I can't recall a 0-0 final in the NFL

avoid really shitty weather games with 2 feet of snow and winds

so when that team scores first, which is an inevitability, is the market suddenly inefficient?

as for Totals,

can you recall any quarter in the history of the NFL that had 1 point scored in it?

and again, is the market efficient on the closing Total?

without completely spelling it out, just think about 5 minutes being gone in a quarter and what the expectation the LB Total represents...and don't forget, no quarter ever had 1 point scored in it.

I will officially refrain from posting my LB plays from here forward, at least try like hell not to.

GL to all

[ngates815]

I give you props for this play! Very smart move!

Would it have been a smart move, if Miami continue to roll them all night?

[wrongturn]

looks like we all will retire pretty soon

[dwaechte]

I would advise people that unless they have an up to date database with mid-game scores that they should not be attempting this. It's fun but easy to get suckered in, and trying to quickly calculate expectations mid-game without accurate drive success projections and historical data is a bad idea.

[threeg5]

Just for all to know this helps

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting+tools/arbitrage+calculator.aspx

most people are gifted enough to calculate this things on their own
what is cool is some live betting books like the one that rhymes with gohog
will put lines up at the beginning of commercial breaks
there is always a hole not as deep as the others you just have to develop a feel for seeing them
and then about 10 seconds before game comes back on the lines change (anticipation)

Remember all
Luck is not luck at all it is simply putting yourself in position to take advantage of the situation you are in or will soon be!

for those that are interested sit down and play with it a bit learn how it works pay very close attention as not all bets are even and you have to understand where you can put more money.
find a live bet game and watch the game and the lines simultaneously and see what they are "saying" and if its moving and teams are "on fire" or play "subpar" tehn there is a chance for a "middle" play that has tons of value. see at that point the gamble comes in as to which play is "the play"

so for statnerds middle last night having wagered 100$ on the first bet he only had to wager but $51.49 on his second for a guaranteed profit of 108.51$

# of Bets: 2
Bet #1: $100
Line #1: +160
Line #2: +405

Bet #2: $51.49
Total Bet: $151.49
$ Profit: $108.51


3g5

[ouman101]

This may be a dumb question, but can you do this at the same book? Wouldn't they obviously see you do this

Interested in this question as well. Are you making these live bets at the same book? Like the above poster mentioned, it is easy to get in over your head trying to bet both sides. So the books may not mind, but at the same time, you are still playing both sides with a guaranteed +$

[Housemoney]

I was waiting for this thread last night. You must have seen these in the third quarter. I didn't see anything worth taking before the half. Luckily took over 24 EV at the half to offset my shitty before game picks. I went to the bar after that.

[dwaechte]

Interested in this question as well. Are you making these live bets at the same book? Like the above poster mentioned, it is easy to get in over your head trying to bet both sides. So the books may not mind, but at the same time, you are still playing both sides with a guaranteed +$

I promise you the books love guys that try to do this. Any extra action they can get on in-game markets they'll take. It's not hard for the books to cover themselves when they're charging 30 or 40 cent lines in-game. For the rare book like Pinny that can deal 16 cent lines, they know they're efficient enough to cover the 8 cents on either side even when they're the first book out with the line. From there, shops like SIA or Phoenix can copy and rake in the profits with their high juice.

[Boner_18]

I learned that for 1h and 12min you had full risk on a play that was probably juiced as hell and you rely on statements like

"and that the other team would probably score at some point too

and that, in technical terms, a bunch of NFL games have actual lead changes"

To justify taking that risk.

[ouman101]

I promise you the books love guys that try to do this. Any extra action they can get on in-game markets they'll take. It's not hard for the books to cover themselves when they're charging 30 or 40 cent lines in-game. For the rare book like Pinny that can deal 16 cent lines, they know they're efficient enough to cover the 8 cents on either side even when they're the first book out with the line. From there, shops like SIA or Phoenix can copy and rake in the profits with their high juice.

Appreciate the insight. Don't think I'll be betting both sides anytime soon, but wondered how the books looked at this.

[statnerds]

I learned that for 1h and 12min you had full risk on a play that was probably juiced as hell and you rely on statements like

"and that the other team would probably score at some point too

and that, in technical terms, a bunch of NFL games have actual lead changes"

To justify taking that risk.

so a +160 on a team in a pick em game was 'juiced as hell'?

oh, that's right, you are suggesting the market was inefficient and the FV Line was Miami -7 and that is why you made those posts saying so and telling everyone to mortgage their homes to absolutely hammer the Dolphins at a pick cause the inefficient market had the game at a pick.

[statnerds]

I would advise people that unless they have an up to date database with mid-game scores that they should not be attempting this. It's fun but easy to get suckered in, and trying to quickly calculate expectations mid-game without accurate drive success projections and historical data is a bad idea.

and again I say, no quarter in an NFL game ever finished with a score of 1 point.

[SamsNCharge99]

good betting there

[dwaechte]

and again I say, no quarter in an NFL game ever finished with a score of 1 point.

You've lost me, but I'm 96.4% sure you have no clue what you're talking about.

If you'd like to explain further, giving the context of the bets and why you thought they were +EV I'd certainly listen.

[RudyRuetigger]

so a +160 on a team in a pick em game was 'juiced as hell'?

oh, that's right, you are suggesting the market was inefficient and the FV Line was Miami -7 and that is why you made those posts saying so and telling everyone to mortgage their homes to absolutely hammer the Dolphins at a pick cause the inefficient market had the game at a pick.

so you bet this when miami scored and it was 7-0? Then the game was no longer a pick'em.

[G's pks]

or you are busy being G'sPicks

10/4/10 9:04pm Pending10/4/10 8:35pm Live In-Play Football 9225 New England Patriots +160* vs Miami Dolphins

now pay attention

10/4/10 10:16pm Pending10/4/10 8:35pm Live In-Play Football 9226 Miami Dolphins +405* vs New England Patriots


first, drop your ego.

second, read what each play means.

third, process the info in your head and tell me what you just learned about Live-Betting.

it simply means you over thought and pissed money away and tried to be much sharper than you will ever be...

you threw money away on the second bet...

[G's pks]

good betting there

from the clueless wonder...

[Boner_18]

so you bet this when miami scored and it was 7-0? Then the game was no longer a pick'em.

I wasn't gonna reply as it might be fruitless. But thank you for taking the words out of my mouth.

[prop]

Wow had I only thought of this strategy earlier I'd of bailed out Matchbook and took over the gambling world. How long you been doing this? and, why are you still posting here?

[G's pks]

This guy is the sharpest guy on the forum.... He had a winning bet and than placed a losing bet...thus reducing his profit just to show us he could lock in a profit...the sharpest of the sharp...

[kevinslack1016]

i like the idea but i do agree that the second bet was fairly pointless unless you absolutely had to guarantee a profit, which is never really a bad thing

[Jonah]

What was the score when you picked Miami + 405?

Where do you live wager?

[Sunde91]

Teacher, question: What happens if miami never loses its original lead.

Teacher, do you lose???

Teacher,

[Robust]

for all those that don't get it.. it was a GUARANTEED PROFIT.. some older guys like doing this, some don't..

you might like it, or not.. I personally like it..

but it ISN'T dumb.. and you DON'T LOSE.. only cut possible profits to a predetermined amount.. which again.. is GOOD in my book..

Robust

[Robust]

oh.. i posted the mathematical equation for this sometime last year.. too lazy to look for it, but you can! lol

(if you wanna try it)

Robust

[G's pks]

for all those that don't get it.. it was a GUARANTEED PROFIT.. some older guys like doing this, some don't..

you might like it, or not.. I personally like it..

but it ISN'T dumb.. and you DON'T LOSE.. only cut possible profits to a predetermined amount.. which again.. is GOOD in my book..

Robust

just like saying...on the early game I won a +210 dog...it wins...now on the late game I am taking a +160 dog...look how smart I am.... This is so simple to do...I used to do it with parlays years ago....

You are missing the point...this goof thinks he is actually teaching us that two plus signs do not equal a minus... I think most laughed at this thread...

[G's pks]

Also look at the time of his post...go back into his post log and try to find the 9:04pm bet... I do not need to look it will not exist....as usual after the fact posting this guy is sharp!