Zenyatta does it again - another big close for the win

[Reload]

Another amazing surge at the end - just sends chills up the spine

[patswin]

she is one heck of a horse

[unusialsusp5]

horse kinda struggled to get by the 1. looks like another major disappointment is on the horizon in the breeders cup classic. this horses will be overbet trying for the 20 in a row. it will be another smarty jones letdown and won't help the future of horse racing. this horse needs to win it to save the sport essentially.

[str]

She did not struggle to win it but I can see why you would think so.If you look at her eyes and ears it is quite clear that she only pushed herself 1/8 of a mile if that. She has multiple gears and is having fun doing this. Obviously a very smart horse.
As soon as she goes by even slightly, her ears start to prick . She is toying with these horses.
I am truly not popping off at the mouth and spewing a bunch of crap to argue but I trained a lot of horses for over 25 years and I promise you she is having a ball doing this.Honestly ,I am hard pressed to think of a horse that did this in such a calculating fashion.She is shockingly smart and professional and yes Reload , she does send chills up my spine.

[Rio DiNero]

She is a beast and exiciting to watch. Thought Smith waited a little too long to call on her, but she got the job done.

[brxbmbers42]

wow. never heard a crowd so loud at the track. couldnt even hear the announcer

[gummo]

[smitch124]

I have goose bumps, what a kick, thanks for posting

[andywend]

She is the type of horse that if she ran against 10,000 claimers, its quite possible she would only win by a length or 2.

What makes her so special is that she comes from so far out of it and really does lengthen her stride deep in the stretch when just about every other horse on the planet is tiring at that point.

Without question, she is going to be badly overbet in the BC Classic next month as she is in every race she runs in.

Over her past few races, she is winning by very small margins but goes off at 1-9 every time.

A great horse to watch but offers ZERO betting value.

[beach nut]

Hell of a race yesterday. She is an amazing filly.

[robmpink]

horse kinda struggled to get by the 1. looks like another major disappointment is on the horizon in the breeders cup classic. this horses will be overbet trying for the 20 in a row. it will be another smarty jones letdown and won't help the future of horse racing. this horse needs to win it to save the sport essentially.

I don't even know how to reply to what you wrote.

[madmaxx]

Hahaha, comparing Zenyatta to Smarty Jones. You hear about these teams that "play down to their competition..." but always get the win, thats Zenyatta. She stops and poses for the crowd as if she's telling them, watch this. Its like she wants to crowd/audience to have a mild heart attack before she wins the race by a half length...but its the easiest half length you could imagine. Switch and St. Trinian's are two very good horses who were all out in the lane and Zenyatta went by with minimal effort.

She will not be overbet in the BC Classic if Quality Road and Blame are in there. She will be around 9/5 which is an overlay in my opinion. There is no scenario short of Barbaro returning from the dead where this horse should be higher than 1/5, though Blame does scare me.

[floridagolfer]

The BC Classic is must-watch TV.

[Brewers in 7]

if she gets the same ride she did in last years classic she'll win it again, if smith takes the scenic route like he usually does vs the lesser rivals, i think shell get beat, should be a interesting race though

[str]

[quote=madmaxx;6671589]Hahaha, comparing Zenyatta to Smarty Jones. You hear about these teams that "play down to their competition..." but always get the win, thats Zenyatta. She stops and poses for the crowd as if she's telling them, watch this. Its like she wants to crowd/audience to have a mild heart attack before she wins the race by a half length...but its the easiest half length you could imagine. Switch and St. Trinian's are two very good horses who were all out in the lane and Zenyatta went by with minimal effort.

You are spot on with this.
I did not want to address the Smarty Jones thing but...It is not even apples and oranges . Maybe watermelons and grapes.
Smarty Jones could not go a mile and a half in a van .
Almost an insult to mention him in the same paragraph as Zenyatta.

[madmaxx]

if she gets the same ride she did in last years classic she'll win it again, if smith takes the scenic route like he usually does vs the lesser rivals, i think shell get beat, should be a interesting race though

Regal Ransom went 24.1 and 47.9 at the first two calls in that race which isn't a crawl but certainly didn't help Zenyatta's cause with the "speed" going that slow. Plus she hated having Mine that Bird fooling around back there with her. You gotta figure there is going to be really fast fractions in this year's Classic because no one wants Quality Road to get the lead down the backstretch with soft fractions. I think the race sets up a lot better for Zenyatta, who almost had to split horses in 09. I just worry that Blame gets first jump and he has so much burst in the lane that she'll actually have to go all out to catch him.

[madmaxx]

[QUOTE=str;6671709]

Hahaha, comparing Zenyatta to Smarty Jones. You hear about these teams that "play down to their competition..." but always get the win, thats Zenyatta. She stops and poses for the crowd as if she's telling them, watch this. Its like she wants to crowd/audience to have a mild heart attack before she wins the race by a half length...but its the easiest half length you could imagine. Switch and St. Trinian's are two very good horses who were all out in the lane and Zenyatta went by with minimal effort.

You are spot on with this.
I did not want to address the Smarty Jones thing but...It is not even apples and oranges . Maybe watermelons and grapes.
Smarty Jones could not go a mile and a half in a van .
Almost an insult to mention him in the same paragraph as Zenyatta.

Birdstone!

[zebra58]

after the race moss confirmed ky next, she's awesome but can't win the classic at cd

[gtkid911]

Zenyatta is a just an actress. She loves playing with bettors heart, i mean you have to be pretty loving to bet 1-9. Shes my pick for the Breeders Cup now that it looks like Blame peeked at the wrong time.

[robmpink]

after the race moss confirmed ky next, she's awesome but can't win the classic at cd

Geez, why not? It will be tough, but last year was tough.

[robmpink]

Zenyatta is a just an actress. She loves playing with bettors heart, i mean you have to be pretty loving to bet 1-9. Shes my pick for the Breeders Cup now that it looks like Blame peeked at the wrong time.

99% of the time it makes a pick 6 a pick 5, a pick 4 and pick 3.

[robmpink]

The guy was comparing the Belmont Stakes for a possible triple crown winner to this horse in the Breeders Cup Classic. Is was a horrible analogy. What is also horrible is the fact you say, "this horse needs to win it to save the sport essentially.". Huh? It is a tough philly racing against tough colts. It she can't win, she can't win. It will be her last race, yes, I know they said it last year, but it will. Whether she wins or doesn;t doesn;t have anything to do with saving horse racing.

Continue to watch your 4 races a year and keep thinking you know what you are talking about.

[ok now what]

I have to disagree on the value portion of the discussion. While all the exactas were terrible, there was a lot of value around Zenyatta's race. You had to look for it.

I held doubles ending with Zenyatta, and noted even with a minute to go in the race prior to Zenyatta's that the expected payout on the seven possible combinations ending on her (1 thru 7 with 5) slightly outpaid parlay returns. I think more people were trying to single Switch (the 1) and beat Zenyatta then you'd think.

Mike Smith won both halves of the Zenyatta-completing double. His first win was on a 3-1 horse. The $2 double paid just over $10. I think this was value. Value does not always equate giant base price jackpots. I'll gladly take a $10 payoff on 3-1 going into a 1-9 free square anytime. The value is in the extra $1.20-$2.00 vs. parlay.

Two of the pick 3's involving Zenyatta's race paid in the $20s, and the win odds were not over 4/1 in any race of the sequences. Richard's Kid won the other closing race of the 3rd Zenyatta-related pick 3 and the $41.50 dollar payoff is also good value. There is always more lateral value in horse racing, betting across multi-race wagers. Vertical value is tough to locate, especially during major events.

Must agree with Robmpink. No single horse saves the game. Zenyatta's helped our sport get positively back in mainstream news, though. Thankful for it.

Zenyatta knows exactly what's going on. The very best ones often do.

[VegasAddict]

I have to disagree on the value portion of the discussion. While all the exactas were terrible, there was a lot of value around Zenyatta's race. You had to look for it.

I held doubles ending with Zenyatta, and noted even with a minute to go in the race prior to Zenyatta's that the expected payout on the seven possible combinations ending on her (1 thru 7 with 5) slightly outpaid parlay returns. I think more people were trying to single Switch (the 1) and beat Zenyatta then you'd think.

Mike Smith won both halves of the Zenyatta-completing double. His first win was on a 3-1 horse. The $2 double paid just over $10. I think this was value. Value does not always equate giant base price jackpots. I'll gladly take a $10 payoff on 3-1 going into a 1-9 free square anytime. The value is in the extra $1.20-$2.00 vs. parlay.

Two of the pick 3's involving Zenyatta's race paid in the $20s, and the win odds were not over 4/1 in any race of the sequences. Richard's Kid won the other closing race of the 3rd Zenyatta-related pick 3 and the $41.50 dollar payoff is also good value. There is always more lateral value in horse racing, betting across multi-race wagers. Vertical value is tough to locate, especially during major events.

Must agree with Robmpink. No single horse saves the game. Zenyatta's helped our sport get positively back in mainstream news, though. Thankful for it.

Zenyatta knows exactly what's going on. The very best ones often do.

Great post. This is the type of info everyone needs to be more successful at betting the ponies.

[Dirty Sanchez]

She's run against some questionable horses/fields. We'll see when she moves East what she truly has. California horses have a checkered past when they move East, and the surface switch is another lingering question. She's proven she's got one heck of a kick, but her competition is going to go waaay up and relying on her kick might be a mistake in the future. Mike Smith is a solid jockey, so the Classic will be interesting for sure.

[EEL]

thats a good horse i guess

[zebra58]

Geez, why not? It will be tough, but last year was tough.

no rubber & wax this year

[cadillac pete]

what weight will she be asked to carry this year in the Classic? Last yr I believer she was 123.

[ok now what]

I doubt the weight will change much. I believe she's been carrying 123 in many. It truly depends on the way the condition is written. . . and I'm sure we've got at least 10-14 days before the fine print of the terms of the race are set into stone.

I thank those above for their compliments. It took me years to learn better betting. Horse racing's a great education, but you pay a hell of a tuition.

[Richkas]

I thought I heard the TV announcers saying she want going to run in the classic. She's sticking with the ladys. And she should. Looking at her speed figures recently I dont think she could win the classic

[Richkas]

My bad, she is running in the classic. Good. She will take square action.

[ok now what]

There was something different about this last race. I grant that. I think the shortened distance obviously was a risk. The principal question, and perhaps we've got to look at the entire scenario of the Lady's Secret with less our hearts and more our heads, is whether Switch tired out and that was why Zenyatta still made it?

There's no doubt in my mind the last performance being repeated is sufficient to win the Ladies' Classic. Age five is when the best of them start to lose a touch of their edge, unless they are that rare animal that hits top form at 5 or 6, and we have seen that over the years sometimes. Thanks to over-breeding, we see less of it unless you measure some elder mare with a hidden pregnancy making a late move up the middle claiming ranks every other Thursday at Penn National, etc. . .

All that said, no horse can stay that good for 4 campaigns. We'd have seen horses win their first 23, 24 races+ if that were the case.

I noted a little less post-race exuberance coming from Zenyatta than in the past. I think she's ready to stop.

[ok now what]

Just saw the last bit of news. Going for it all? Wow. God bless her.

[str]

I doubt the weight will change much. I believe she's been carrying 123 in many. It truly depends on the way the condition is written. . . and I'm sure we've got at least 10-14 days before the fine print of the terms of the race are set into stone.

I thank those above for their compliments. It took me years to learn better betting. Horse racing's a great education, but you pay a hell of a tuition.

Zenyatta will carry 123 in the Classic.The boys will carry 126.It is not an assigned weight handicap with various weights that in theory is designed to make all the horses equal , but a condition stakes race much like the Derby,Preakness,etc.
Basically , it is a three pound sex allowance for her.
Hope that helps.

[robmpink]

no rubber & wax this year

So you are saying she should go off around 4-1 this year?