I remember a thread about betting on Federer every match as opposed to betting on him to win the tournament. What were the results?
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hopefully owned will give us a full report on his experiment soon.Comment -
I think it probably didn't work out better betting on each match, because all his major competition bowed out prior to facing him. I didn't track it that closely, but I imagine he was a serious favorite in all of his matches, even the finals.Comment -
For the first two rounds Federer was about a 1-100 favorite. Absolutely absurd numbers. Against Mirnyi, Haas, Davydenko and Kiefer the lines was more reasonable since these guys actually had a snowball's chance in hell, but all were still in the 1-15 to 1-20 range. The final opened at around 1-12 but a lot of action on Baghdatis saw Federer acually drop below 1-10 for the first time.
The line on Federer to win outright before the tourney was around -150 I believe. After Agassi, Safin and Nadal withdrew it shot below -200. I was able to grab -300 after the first few rounds, which was a seriously rogue number.
Assuming a $200 initial investment and the best lines available, you would have netted $72.79 by betting on Federer every round and reinvesting your winnings.
Betting that same $200 on him to win just before the tournament began would have gotten a $100 profit.
I'm not suggesting that either of these was a very solid play. Federer was shaky at many times in the tournament. In the final, Baghdatis was crushing him, up a set and a break before the Cypriot sensation started choking and cramping.
The real money to be made on Federer in the Aussie Open was betting against him winning in straight sets. You could get some juicy numbers, and each of his last four opponents took at least one set off him.Comment -
come on owned... give us a recap on this experiment already.Comment -
I think it fell short of proving the point Owned wanted to prove, but I still think his original logic is sound.Comment -
so he would have made an extra $4 betting game by game?Comment
