The public was all on OKST today, so why did Vegas move the line down to 2.5? Weird

2ForTheMoney · 09-30-10, 11:10 PM

???

brxbmbers42 · 09-30-10, 11:16 PM

who the fukk knows. curious maybe fishhead would know. who in vegas knows the asnwer to these questions. is it just the head linesmakers.

pleasegod · 09-30-10, 11:32 PM

can't try to figure these things out

BookieOweMe · 09-30-10, 11:55 PM

who cares. either you won or you lost.

zephyr · 10-01-10, 12:15 AM

Here's my understanding. The numbers we see for "the public" is the percentage of bets. It is not the percentage of money. Important distinction. If the bigger bets are playing the less popular side, the numbers appears to move in the "wrong" direction. The books generally want to equalize the money on the two sides, not the number of bets.

Now I'm no expert. I'd like to be straightened out if that is wrong.

JoMoney2785 · 10-01-10, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by zephyr

Here's my understanding. The numbers we see for "the public" is the percentage of bets. It is not the percentage of money. Important distinction. If the bigger bets are playing the less popular side, the numbers appears to move in the "wrong" direction. The books generally want to equalize the money on the two sides, not the number of bets.

Now I'm no expert. I'd like to be straightened out if that is wrong.

That is exactly it. it means there was big money put on Texas AM (sharp), just more bets on OK State (square).

THE PROFIT · 10-01-10, 12:25 AM

To fuk with our heads & make us second guess ourselves & take A&M because obviously the books know something & can predict the future

These fukin books do it all the time. Theyll make a 3 point dog that no one will take getting 3 a 2 point fav & money will pour in on em. Because everyone wants a winner dont they? & the favs are winners arent they?

Calbears · 10-01-10, 01:14 AM

Is it fair to assume that the linemakers actually come from Vegas? I started sportsbetting about 10 years ago but never took the time to research the subject. Feel like I'm the guy at the table who's burning all of his chips trying to figure out who the sucker is

I keep imagining a group of Robert De Niro type guys sitting around pulling spreads out of their a$$es.

swagger · 10-01-10, 01:27 AM

Originally posted by Calbears

Is it fair to assume that the linemakers actually come from Vegas? I started sportsbetting about 10 years ago but never took the time to research the subject. Feel like I'm the guy at the table who's burning all of his chips trying to figure out who the sucker is

I keep imagining a group of Robert De Niro type guys sitting around pulling spreads out of their a$$es.

xxdjstriderxx · 10-01-10, 01:28 AM

to get square action from wannabe sharps on the wrong side

uanl · 10-01-10, 02:16 AM

It was just a case of reverse line movement, most ppl were on state and instead of the spread getting bigger it got smaller to encourage more action on state..I think books tend to do this when they themselves feel strongly about a game and tonight they wanted most of the action of state because books thought a&m would cover .. do the books always win these type of line movements? Absolutely not, tonight was a great example that they don't ... I didn't bet on it and didn't see a lot of the game, but it seemed to me that a&m was the right play.. they totally gave the game away after being up 14..and then again at the end of the game ..

kmarinouofm · 10-01-10, 03:00 AM

books were trying to get everyone who wasn't on Ok St to jump on them last min... Books really though A&M was going to win this game.. if you watch the 2nd half.. A&M did everything in it's power to give this game up.. and they still only lost by 3 pts.. even on the final drive you thought A&M would pull it out.. but nope INT to set up the OK St field goal for the win... Don't kid yourself Texas A&M was the right side tonight.. they should have won outright..

mitote · 10-01-10, 03:15 AM

Originally posted by kmarinouofm

books were trying to get everyone who wasn't on Ok St to jump on them last min... Books really though A&M was going to win this game.. if you watch the 2nd half.. A&M did everything in it's power to give this game up.. and they still only lost by 3 pts.. even on the final drive you thought A&M would pull it out.. but nope INT to set up the OK St field goal for the win... Don't kid yourself Texas A&M was the right side tonight.. they should have won outright..

Texas A&M was not the right side! They lost! OK St was the right side! They won!

venice2222 · 10-01-10, 03:16 AM

took Ok State and over and cashed in

kmarinouofm · 10-01-10, 03:36 AM

Originally posted by mitote

Texas A&M was not the right side! They lost! OK St was the right side! They won!

uhh.. no.. they didn't cover.. soo.. yeah.. if u were me u had A&M +3.5

k13 · 10-01-10, 04:17 AM

Thegreek had a 3 for the longest time, the minute it went -2.5 they moved it back to a 3 very late. I hate it when they do that.

Kind of an odd game/finish.

I guess vegas was gambling and had a good view/feeling for this game. idk or its fixed.

hawaii808 · 10-01-10, 04:38 AM

Originally posted by kmarinouofm

books were trying to get everyone who wasn't on Ok St to jump on them last min... Books really though A&M was going to win this game.. if you watch the 2nd half.. A&M did everything in it's power to give this game up.. and they still only lost by 3 pts.. even on the final drive you thought A&M would pull it out.. but nope INT to set up the OK St field goal for the win... Don't kid yourself Texas A&M was the right side tonight.. they should have won outright..

Nicely said!

Saluki09 · 10-01-10, 05:27 AM

Vegas screwed themselves over moving it down to -2.5

GiveMeaBJ · 10-01-10, 05:30 AM

Just let this one go. We will never fully understand what went on here. Just one of those stupid thursday night games where they play no defense.

Hammew · 10-01-10, 05:59 AM

I had A+M +3.5.

hubie69 · 10-01-10, 07:25 AM

I'm glad I teasered down to 3 instead of 3.5 for ok state. At least got the push

accuscoresucks · 10-01-10, 07:30 AM

oklahoma ml saturday looks to be a better play

Richkas · 10-01-10, 07:33 AM

Originally posted by accuscoresucks

oklahoma ml saturday looks to be a better play

god damn son. Its like 5:30 in the morning where your at. Your up early

Richkas · 10-01-10, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by 2ForTheMoney

Just curious. Pretty sure everyone has a different opinions. Your Thoughts?

Sharps were on TexAM

dherd · 10-01-10, 07:54 AM

first your looking at numbers put out by books, who knows if they are correct. isnt it sweet that a book can dictatel which side you bet simply by putting out some percentages that you have no way of verifying.

second even if the percentages are correct they are no indication as to where the money is. 70% of bets made for $1 each are more than canceled out by one $50000 bet.

in short you have to put in the time working the stats and doing the research, make money the old fashioned way which is proven over the years dont just jump on the latest fad.

accuscoresucks · 10-01-10, 08:12 AM

Originally posted by Richkas

god damn son. Its like 5:30 in the morning where your at. Your up early

going to catch a few zzzz's richie
heading back to santa fe for weekend to chill with her
damn i love women who like football,belch,smoke,drink beer,and are great cooks

BigdaddyQH · 10-01-10, 08:28 AM

The sharps who played the game (not many of them that I know did) were on A&M and got the 3 points. Basically a worthless push. Not every book in Vegas dropped the line. The trick is to know which book has what line.

bachngocduong · 10-01-10, 08:43 AM

Hell know

pavyracer · 10-01-10, 09:22 AM

Most books are thinking too much. There is no need to move a line for a home team from -3 to -2.5. My guess is some of the bigshots in Vegas had a multi thousand dollar bet on Texas A&M +3.5 and when the news leaked everyone pounded it.

Odessa · 10-01-10, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by uanl

I think books tend to do this when they themselves feel strongly about a game and tonight they wanted most of the action of state because books thought a&m would cover

Do you really believe that books thought a&m would cover? If you do, consult your local mental health specialist and stop gambling! You're seriously sick and require immediate attention.

og4667 · 10-01-10, 09:44 AM

do you ever think the books just play with the lines to make it appear that one side is the "sharp side" so they can even out the action?

kmarinouofm · 10-01-10, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Most books are thinking too much. There is no need to move a line for a home team from -3 to -2.5. My guess is some of the bigshots in Vegas had a multi thousand dollar bet on Texas A&M +3.5 and when the news leaked everyone pounded it.

It was me Pavy.. check my post

Just kidding man.. hey by the way keep up the good work.. u been doing well in NCAAF

Originally posted by Odessa

Do you really believe that books thought a&m would cover? If you do, consult your local mental health specialist and stop gambling! You're seriously sick and require immediate attention.

Uhh really? i know u aren't talking to me.. but yeah.. the books though A&M would cover.. and to be honest.. the books thought A&M would win outright... if you really watched that game and thought that OK St should have won that game.. then i guess more power to you man...

but A&M +3 and the ML should have hit last night.. I am glad i told everyone to pound +3.5 as i don't lay or take lines on key numbers ever..

troutsky · 10-01-10, 02:17 PM

late line movemen tsucks. i wish i got a&m at 3 but ended up at 2.5 and was too nitty to buy the .5pt

pavyracer · 10-01-10, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by kmarinouofm

It was me Pavy.. check my post

Just kidding man.. hey by the way keep up the good work.. u been doing well in NCAAF

Uhh really? i know u aren't talking to me.. but yeah.. the books though A&M would cover.. and to be honest.. the books thought A&M would win outright... if you really watched that game and thought that OK St should have won that game.. then i guess more power to you man...

but A&M +3 and the ML should have hit last night.. I am glad i told everyone to pound +3.5 as i don't lay or take lines on key numbers ever..

Texas A&M was the right call. If you can afford the juice there is no reason why you shouldn't pay for the .5 point. I knew it was someone like you who pounded it!