Trap Alert: BG (9-9) vs BS (3-15)

[HedgeHog]

At quick glance, .500 Bowling Green looks like easy money at Ball St (only three wins on the year). Currently BS is a 4 point favorite over BG--and the line was 5 earlier at Greek so BG is getting some "sucker" money IMO.

A closer look at this match-up shows that BS began the year 0-11 so they're much more competitive of late. Also, BG was blown out in the past two away games. Hard to spot 4 points with a 3-15 squad, but Ball St might be worth a small wager tonight.

[The Seer]

Thanks for pointing this out Hedge. I'm gonna look into this. By the way, when did you come back?

[HedgeHog]

Thanks for pointing this out Hedge. I'm gonna look into this. By the way, when did you come back?

Just a few days ago. I took 3 weeks off for a self-imposed timeout.

[jjgold]

Trap game no doubt, I would stay away from it

[BigBollocks]

Cheers HH, I'm definitely going to look even further into it. GL today...

[donjuan]

It's currently at 4 at Pinnacle and 3 1/2 at Bookmaker. What makes you think square money moved it from 5 down to there?

[HedgeHog]

It's currently at 4 at Pinnacle and 3 1/2 at Bookmaker. What makes you think square money moved it from 5 down to there?

Most bettors don't do their homework. They see a 3-15 team favored and see an easy win by taking the better record opponent. I see a situation like this and wonder why. I'll review these games and try to see why the oddsmakers are putting out such a "generous" line. Usually it points to a reason for taking the less obvious side. Such is the case here. I'm not saying bet Ball St, which I did for a 1-unit play, just stay away from Bowling Green here. This smells like a trap to me.

[brock]

sounds like it could be a trap

[donjuan]

Most bettors don't do their homework. They see a 3-15 team favored and see an easy win by taking the better record opponent. I see a situation like this and wonder why. I'll review these games and try to see why the oddsmakers are putting out such a "generous" line. Usually it points to a reason for taking the less obvious side. Such is the case here. I'm not saying bet Ball St, which I did for a 1-unit play, just stay away from Bowling Green here. This smells like a trap to me.

Only problem is that the real money that is going to move lines is coming from people who know what they are doing, especially on small non-nationally broadcast games like this. The vast majority of lines become more efficient closer to game time, not less efficient.

[HedgeHog]

Only problem is that the real money that is going to move lines is coming from people who know what they are doing, especially on small non-nationally broadcast games like this. The vast majority of lines become more efficient closer to game time, not less efficient.

Typically yes. This particular game, no IMO. If all incoming action was "smart money", we'd all be rich by just following the trend. I don't follow the herd...I'm more of a contrarian. Again, I have no inside info here, just an opinion.

[donjuan]

If all incoming action was "smart money", we'd all be rich by just following the trend.

What in the world makes you think that? The money is only "smart" at the number it moved from, not the number it moved to. If you can find stale numbers off by a point from market value in CBB or NBA, you will be a long term winner.

I don't follow the herd...I'm more of a contrarian.

That's fine, especially for making anti-BSP bets in the NFL and other places. But the market is a lot smarter than you give it credit for.

[HedgeHog]

OK Donjuan. Bet Bowling Green tonight. Good Luck.

[Wrigley]

Trap game no doubt, I would stay away from it

Agree with coach

[donjuan]

OK Donjuan. Bet Bowling Green tonight. Good Luck.

That's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that I would take Bowling Green if I could get it at a point better than current market value.

[HedgeHog]

That's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that I would take Bowling Green if I could get it at a point better than current market value.

Likewise you would take Ball St if you could get the same 1 point advantage? So how do you anticipate line changes before they happen? I wish I knew as it might set up some good middle opportunities.

PS I get your point; I shop several places myself

[donjuan]

Likewise you would take Ball St if you could get the same 1 point advantage?

Yep, definitely unless I handicapped the line as being off. And the answer to your question is generally I don't, I just try to find stale lines or handicap the game myself (usually on the right side of line moves).

[20Four7]

OK Donjuan. Bet Bowling Green tonight. Good Luck.

I did hedge at +165 on the ML.

[HedgeHog]

I did hedge at +165 on the ML.

And they're up by 14 right now. Obviously I overthought this Ball St angle. Good job 20-4-7.

[20Four7]

Hopefully it will hold. I also took BYU at -180 tonight as well. I hate laying that much but I think they will blow out the force.