Follow this strategy for NFL when you are not sure who to bet on

[PureGuava]

It is a very interesting theory, wonder how it will work out.

[Mr. Jones]

Unless there are mitigating factors, which there often are, bet the team which would bring the final score back closer to the original line.

[pavyracer]

What?

Do the math pal!

[ATTACH]18251[/ATTACH]

Apparently there is some confusion on what this strategy is about so let me make it as clear as possible:

For Example:

Jets/Dolphins: First half score 14-10 Jets (we don’t care what the opening line was)

Play for 2nd half is Jets +1 -115

2nd half score was 17-13 Jets – Bet wins

Here is all the picks for Week 3:

Titans/Giants: (no play since the score was 10-10 at HT)
Bills/Pats: Pats -7 (push)
Browns/Ravens: Ravens -7 (loss)
Steelers/Buccs: Steelers +0.5 (win)
Bengals/Panthers: Bengals +0.5 (win)
Falcons/Saints: (no play since the score was 14-14 at HT)
49ers/Chiefs: Chiefs +2.5 (win)
Lions/Vikings: Vikings -6.5 (win)
Cowboys/Texans: Cowboys +3 (win)
Redskins/Rams: Rams +4 (win)
Eagles/Jaguars: Eagles pk (win)
Colts/Broncos: Colts pk (win)
Raiders/Cardinals: Raiders +3 (loss)
Jets/Dolphins: Jets +1 (win)

So for the Sunday games 12 games were eligible for a play for 2nd half.

9 wins
2 losses
1 push

[thebestthereis]

I did it in the NBA, much better.

[thebestthereis]

It works because the team winning at the half has come to play, in general, and they cannot make the line right in fear of the middle.

[blueghost]

12-2 is a lot better than anything im doing right now

[AMBlai01]

nothing is easy.

blind betting is for suckers.

if you can't figure out a play the real way - don't make it.

edit: i haven't checked and it may well be a profitable trend for a while, but i really doubt it will last.

Blind betting is for suckers? Most people that make money off gambling never pay attention to the teams playing or "how they are playing".

They bet based off numbers, edges and systems.

[wrongturn]

It works because the team winning at the half has come to play, in general, and they cannot make the line right in fear of the middle.

That makes a lot of sense. But last week's rate is probably not sustainable.

[str]

I am not trying to be a smart ass but if you are not sure who to bet on , why would you bet at all.
Action?
If that is the answer, fine, but realize you are going for entertainment only . In the long run ,that comes with a price.

[dreamjob]

9-2-1 A lot better than I did last Sunday. I gotta look into this.

[pavyracer]

I am not trying to be a smart ass but if you are not sure who to bet on , why would you bet at all.
Action?
If that is the answer, fine, but realize you are going for entertainment only . In the long run ,that comes with a price.

OK what I meant was you probably have 3-4 games every week where you can use them as your strong bets for the week. For me last week was Bengals -3, Steelers -2.5 and Falcons +4. Go ahead and bet your strongest bets the way you are doing now for the game spread.

But lets say you had leans on Cowboys, Jets, Eagles, Colts but couldn't quite pull the trigger maybe you can wait until HT and make a bet.

[ehp6737]

Take the spread. Just look at the attached screenshot. On Sunday it was 12-2 if you took the team leading at halftime whether the line was -3 or +3 for the team leading at HT.

Pavy, one week is a fluke, not a trend. Do you have more statistical data from a larger sample size to support your claim?

[pavyracer]

Pavy, one week is a fluke, not a trend. Do you have more statistical data from a larger sample size to support your claim?

I don't have statistical data. I tried to use sbrlines but it wouldn't give me 2nd half lines for the past weeks or even last year. But since you asked lets assume I had a large sample size at what pecentage I need to be hitting these plays in the future to break even?

[wrongturn]

GB/CHI was another loss. SD/SEA could be one also if 2H SEA +2.5 or less, not sure.

[str]

OK what I meant was you probably have 3-4 games every week where you can use them as your strong bets for the week. For me last week was Bengals -3, Steelers -2.5 and Falcons +4. Go ahead and bet your strongest bets the way you are doing now for the game spread.

But lets say you had leans on Cowboys, Jets, Eagles, Colts but couldn't quite pull the trigger maybe you can wait until HT and make a bet.

I see your point.I guess ,if your theory checks out over time, it would be fine.
Personally,I do not play leans.I am more selective than most but that is just me.
Hope it works for you.GL.

[vitalogist]

Agreed Paver. I took Eagles 2H +.5, they were leading 14-3. Outscored Jax 14-0 in the second half. Books clearly were BEGGING anyone to take the home team down at half to make a run. It was the easiest, most worry-free bet of my weekend. It's a place for sharp bettors to take advantage of the public, who foolishly chase and force action in the wrong spot.

[pavyracer]

Agreed Paver. I took Eagles 2H +.5, they were leading 14-3. Outscored Jax 14-0 in the second half. Books clearly were BEGGING anyone to take the home team down at half to make a run. It was the easiest, most worry-free bet of my weekend. It's a place for sharp bettors to take advantage of the public, who foolishly chase and force action in the wrong spot.

You have to pick your spots. If a team is dominant in the first half they will be dominant in the 2nd half especially when they can rely on the running game and keep the clock running. No need to throw the ball and throw picks.

[uhuhahah]

You have to pick your spots. If a team is dominant in the first half they will be dominant in the 2nd half especially when they can rely on the running game and keep the clock running. No need to throw the ball and throw picks.

Good point, I will look at this. It makes sense. Thanks.

[CrimsonQueen]

I don't have statistical data. I tried to use sbrlines but it wouldn't give me 2nd half lines for the past weeks or even last year. But since you asked lets assume I had a large sample size at what pecentage I need to be hitting these plays in the future to break even?

Did you really just ask what percentage you need to hit to break even betting on point spreads? And you've made 35,000 posts? In a betting forum?

Did I read that wrong??

[onetrickpony]

will u posting in game this sunday?

[cant call it]

wicked good idea. I would like to track this over the course of the rest of the year, and if it works out, I would totally drop bets on all of them next year. I would want to know for sure before I put my money on the line, but I like the style, thats a damn good idea. i got to give you sbr points for that

[lakerboy]

Blind betting is for suckers? Most people that make money off gambling never pay attention to the teams playing or "how they are playing".

They bet based off numbers, edges and systems.

[pavyracer]

wicked good idea. I would like to track this over the course of the rest of the year, and if it works out, I would totally drop bets on all of them next year. I would want to know for sure before I put my money on the line, but I like the style, thats a damn good idea. i got to give you sbr points for that

You also need to do your due diligence. Look at the half time line. Calculate what this will mean for the final score line. Check the HT stats. Is the team that's trailing at HT have any running game? Did their QB played awful? If yes then they are most likely not coming back to win the game.

Now if the HT stats show an even game pick your spots.

[hitman2010]

But the difference is they don't need 4th quarter last minute drives to win. This is the basis of this strategy. Brady and Manning rarely don't lead at HT.

Do you mean Fade them in first half?

[thechaoz]

With the 1st few weeks being so crazy I noticed the home underdogs are big hits (full games) . Not saying it will stay this way though.

[LostBankroll]

2nd Half betting is the best imo.

[cant call it]

You also need to do your due diligence. Look at the half time line. Calculate what this will mean for the final score line. Check the HT stats. Is the team that's trailing at HT have any running game? Did their QB played awful? If yes then they are most likely not coming back to win the game.

Now if the HT stats show an even game pick your spots.

I will look at that this weekend, as I have never looked or bet any lines other than the whole game. This will be interesting, thx for the tip.
I also wanted to add, I remember when tone loc came to auburn in the 90's and played downtown after an au football game, funky cold medina remains iconic in my book. 15 years old, fake id, hammering bourbon and cokes, rocking the f out to tone loc, good times. Not to be forgotten.

[scratbandit]

10-4 week 1
8-4 week 2
9-2 week 3
this year looks pretty damn good and great tip from OP. This works extremely well for NBA especially.

[pavyracer]

10-4 week 1
8-4 week 2
9-2 week 3
this year looks pretty damn good and great tip from OP. This works extremely well for NBA especially.

Thank you for getting the data for week 1 and week 2. I was looking all day yesterday and couldn't find it anywhere.

I noticed this on week 1 and the same trend was happening week 2 so in week 3 I actually started betting more units on these plays. I know it's an early trend for a system like this you can't really go back 10 seasons and have 1000 plays in your database to see if it's profitable. It may well be a short trend but it will be interesting if it holds up the rest of the year.

[l7ustin]

interesting find pavy.

[jolmscheid]

And again Pavy...this is taking the SPREAD second half on the team that is winning? Or is it taking the MONEYLINE on the team that is winning?? Just want to be sure...thanks

[pavyracer]

And again Pavy...this is taking the SPREAD second half on the team that is winning? Or is it taking the MONEYLINE on the team that is winning?? Just want to be sure...thanks

Spread. Most of the time the line is either pk or +3 unless is a big fav who only leads by a few points at HT.

[vitalogist]

Good spot to grab the fins here with a PK.

[pavyracer]

Good spot to grab the fins here with a PK.

Great spot!

Yesterday this method was 4-3-3 with 3 games not making the cut.

So if Miami wins tonight it will be profitable again at 5-3-3.

[The Baron]

So according to you this is such a great strategy right? Have you been following your own advice? Is that why your NFL record is 7-5 for a pathetic +1.91 units? LOL You havn't won shit. I could be up the same number of units flipping a coin.