I'm stil new to wagering, so please be gentle. My question is when you see a team has a certain record ATS, is that the spread that the game opened up at or the one right before the game starts? Thanks in advance for your help.
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It's actually a great question, don't beat yourself up. I don't know the answer, however I don't pay attention to ATS numbers in my handicapping so it doesn't phase me. I'm sure someone will give you a better answer.
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This is actually a good question. Since I keep my own NFL stats on the ATS and the O/U, I use the current line that is avaliable to me when I make my decision.
A cynical side of me says that people use which ever line helps to make their point. Don't forget that different books have different start and ending spreads, so there could be a big difference between them. This is the reason that I keep my own records involving ATS and O/U. I know what book that I used and when I recorded the value for historical reference.Comment -
That's not a cynical point of view at all as far as I'm concerned. For the most part, people will use the number that makes them look the best. You will see a lot of free picks released without any exact number used for a spread, thus allowing a capper to come back and say they got it at the number that put them in the win column eventually.
The answer to the question is that the records come from the closing line in most cases.Comment -
It is a good question. One almost everyone new to handicapping sports will ask.
The Gold Sheet has season long logs for football, NFL and college. They use, for their pointspreads and totals, the final number.
Touts will generally use the number that makes them look best. But using a number - say, a consensus number from 2 or 3 top books - that is there when one makes one's picks is certainly legit.Comment -
And in fact I thing the SBR scoreboard - after the game is over - will use the consensus final number.Comment -
Ideally, records would include the same info as for stocks: O-H-L-C. For my own records I use the closing lines at covers.com, but those lines are not 100% accurate. The downside of using only the closing line for your systems is that, at least technically, you would have to wait for the closing line before you could place a wager.Comment -
When I bet I see what the best line available was across the major books including the opening line, I then buy enough points to get that line. Has been working well so far.Comment -
An experienced +ev sports bettor speaks.When I bet I see what the best line available was across the major books including the opening line, I then buy enough points to get that line. Has been working well so far.Comment -
I'm saying you're -ev and don't have a clue, not that it's profitable to fade you. Do you understand the difference?Anytime you want to fade my bet ticket $ for $ just let me know. You post your bet ticket, I'll post mine, same $ amount, you take the opposite of all my plays.Comment -
I know that you are a moron. Since you don't know what plays I make other than the few I post here, and you have no idea what criteria I use to pick the plays I make you have no way of knowing whether I am a positive expectation bettor or not because you have no way of knowing if the bets I make are positive expectation bets or not. So, your statement is ridiculous and shows you up for the retard that you are.
Also a negative expectation player would be making bets that over time lose more than they win, that is the definition of negative expectation. So, if you are saying at the same time that I am a "-ev" bettor and that "it is not profitable to fade you" you have contradicted yourself and shown that you don't KNOW WHAT THE FUKK YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. See the difference retard?
So do me a favor and leave me the fukk alone. You only come into threads that I have posted in to insult me and ridicule me, I have yet to see you make a single post on this forum that actually adds ANYTHING constructive to it. You have posted at least two dozen times that you dislike me and you think I am a moron. I think the forum gets that by now. You don't have to keep repeating yourself. I want to have nothing to do with you. Don't talk to me, don't quote my posts, don't make posts directed at me, don't talk about me,and don't come into threads that I have posted in for the single reason of talking shit to me while you add nothing constructive to the thread. LEAVE ME THE FUKK ALONE.Comment -
Hmm, I wonder if I hit 60% at -200 if I am then making advantage plays.Comment -
I'll give that one LOL, even though it deserves many, many more. So you really don't get it, which hardly comes as a surprise. There is a difference between booking your bets at +110, which I would do all day, and fading them at -110. For one, you need to have an ATS winning percentage of lower than 52.38% for me to be profitable and for the other you need to be below 48.62%. While it's certainly possible that you are below 48.62%, I certainly don't have enough evidence to be sure. From what I can gather, you are probably right around 50%, perhaps slightly lower. Also, how do you expect me to fade your retarded parlays? It's clear from your posts that you really have no clue about sports betting (and most other forms of gambling) and I feel misinformation should not be spread. Moral thing, you see.
P.S. I thought I was on ignore.Comment -
So it is a moral thing for you to constantly lie about me? I guess you have a different definition of moral than I do. I don't know any place where you can book basketball bets at +110. If you find one please let me know. And you know damm well I wasn't talking about that.
Wow, you can know my win loss % without knowing what games I actually bet on? You must be some kind of genius. My posted record in SBR is far higher than that, but since you didn't atually look at my posts you don't know that.
I won more big teasers and big parlays than I lost. But, they were small bets, so they hardly matter. And, I wasn't talking about parlays and you know that. I post my bet ticket of straight bets at usual odds, you take the opposite bet for the same wager. Since you believe I am a -ev bettor then you will be a +ev bettor and you will win money. Either accept this challenge or SHUT THE FUKK UP.Comment -
OK, I think I have it now. Fading a 50% picker at -110 will make me a winner.Comment -
Curious,
Uh, when you place a bet at -110, the book is getting +110 on that bet. Is such a simple concept too difficult for you?So it is a moral thing for you to constantly lie about me? I guess you have a different definition of moral than I do. I don't know any place where you can book basketball bets at +110. If you find one please let me know. And you know damm well I wasn't talking about that.
See Durito's response for why this likely wouldn't be +ev for me unless I was booking your action, not simply fading it.Since you believe I am a -ev bettor then you will be a +ev bettor and you will win money.
P.S. That ignore function must not work very well. Will one of the mods please fix this?Comment
