I'm pulling my hair out because of semi correlated parlay bad beats!

[BrentCrude]

It's like something right out of the Twilight zone.In the past couple weeks I must have hit 3 out of 4 legs on a 4 team parlay 15 times.Even on bad nights I have been doing well winning the vast majority of legs in the parlay where the tickets are clustered with wins.

In the NHL I always pick the home team -1.5 and take the over .I'll play two four team parlays like this on nights I bet.The payoff is usually around 30-1 on average on each parlay.So on each ticket,I hit 3 legs of the parlay and I usually win the hardest part of the bet winning the -1.5 leg

Same goes for the NBA where I have been playing 4 team parlays playing big underdog moneylines,and taking the over picks.Same thing again where I get 3 legs of the bet won and it's usually the harder moneyline legs I win.

If you looked at my betting sheets it would make the most reckless gambler cringe because of the fact that I very easily could have mixed and matched these parlays and won many of them.I rarely think that one separate 4 team parlay has a better chance of winning than another 4 team parlay I pick.It's all random which teams I match and enter on my bets.

I must say it's pretty exciting staying up till the last west coast game is over and the game is in overtime and you have the moneyline bet side of the parlay to win but you end up losing by one point.

I can honestly see where these style of parlays are addictive when they come within a whisker of winning for nights on end.

The best ones though are 4 team -1.5 and overs on home teams in baseball.

[Justin7]

Who takes these? Bah, don't answer that (but I won't be hurt if you PM me).

[Deuce]

Well, JJ knows where to get glue for your rug when you need it pal.

[curious]

I took one of these in NHL:
Minn -1 1/2
Minn OVER 5
Chicago -1 1/2
Chicago OVER 5

$50 wins $1158

[jjgold]

Crude can you imagine if you bet straight bets? In the long run you shall see if you can pick winners the straight way is the best way. Parlays are fun but you never win them.

[Munson15]

I took one of these in NHL:
Minn -1 1/2
Minn OVER 5
Chicago -1 1/2
Chicago OVER 5

$50 wins $1158

Dumb question, but do shootout goals count for the total?

[The Seer]

You know what they say about parlays and teasers.

[Doug]

Dumb question, but do shootout goals count for the total?

Winner of a shootout gets one goal.

A 2-2 game at the end of 3 periods will end in a 3-2 final score.

[Doug]

It's like something right out of the Twilight zone.In the past couple weeks I must have hit 3 out of 4 legs on a 4 team parlay 15 times.Even on bad nights I have been doing well winning the vast majority of legs in the parlay where the tickets are clustered with wins.

In the NHL I always pick the home team -1.5 and take the over .I'll play two four team parlays like this on nights I bet.The payoff is usually around 30-1 on average on each parlay.So on each ticket,I hit 3 legs of the parlay and I usually win the hardest part of the bet winning the -1.5 leg

Same goes for the NBA where I have been playing 4 team parlays playing big underdog moneylines,and taking the over picks.Same thing again where I get 3 legs of the bet won and it's usually the harder moneyline legs I win.

If you looked at my betting sheets it would make the most reckless gambler cringe because of the fact that I very easily could have mixed and matched these parlays and won many of them.I rarely think that one separate 4 team parlay has a better chance of winning than another 4 team parlay I pick.It's all random which teams I match and enter on my bets.

I must say it's pretty exciting staying up till the last west coast game is over and the game is in overtime and you have the moneyline bet side of the parlay to win but you end up losing by one point.

I can honestly see where these style of parlays are addictive when they come within a whisker of winning for nights on end.

The best ones though are 4 team -1.5 and overs on home teams in baseball.

Did you find that ( for NBA) when a big dog wins outright, that over hits at a higher percentage ?

The hockey was good before shootouts, when games could tie. Parlaying the +1.5 pucks to the under was great, then.

I don't think it is nearly as good now, and most books have stopped it entirely.

To even bet it, you would wind up at a shitty book that might steal it from you. I think I know where you are playing it at, and its no A book. Some Euro books may take it, but I'm not counting them.

[Tchocky]

It's generally not a good idea to parlay more than 2 games.

[Doug]

If you're going to do the 4-teamers, I'd do the 2 teamers also, and larger than the 4-teamers.

You have large variance doing the 4-teamers.

[RickySteve]

There's no correlation between the 2nd and 3rd selections. This destroys what little edge you (likely don't even) have on the 2-teamers. Puckline and total parlays are not even close to blindly profitable. Most books are making the mistake of not allowing these bets for exactly the reason they could be quite profitable: They appear to be valuable to the player.

[RickySteve]

If you're going to do the 4-teamers, I'd do the 2 teamers also, and larger than the 4-teamers.

You have large variance doing the 4-teamers.

I believe he's betting 4-teamers because it's an end-around on rejection of the 2-teamers.

[RickySteve]

Did you find that ( for NBA) when a big dog wins outright, that over hits at a higher percentage ?

This is absolutely unsupported by data.

[Doug]

This is absolutely unsupported by data.

I believe you.

RS: Any data for a large NHL dog ( over +150 ML) tending to go over, or MLB.

[Doug]

There's no correlation between the 2nd and 3rd selections. This destroys what little edge you (likely don't even) have on the 2-teamers. Puckline and total parlays are not even close to blindly profitable. Most books are making the mistake of not allowing these bets for exactly the reason they could be quite profitable: They appear to be valuable to the player.

I agree, tracked it for most of a season ( with line shopping 2-3 books that allowed it at the time), it lost badly.

I could see betting some of them, but you need to get the right ones.

For example you might find Ottawa often wins by a large margin, or losses outright.... then Ottawa -1.5 and over might be good in certain spots. ( just an example).

You also might eliminate totals like 6, and other things.

I think you can book it safely enough, but I wouldn't play it a sportsbook.com

CRIS and Wagerweb no longer allow them, can't play at Bet$3.65.

[RickySteve]

I believe you.

RS: Any data for a large NHL dog ( over +150 ML) tending to go over, or MLB.

Interestingly, there is a weak-to-moderate correlation between road and over in the NHL. It's not enough to be profitable in itself, but a consideration for those with opinions. What's tricky with the NHL is handling the large and persistent biases in the market.

[curious]

I believe he's betting 4-teamers because it's an end-around on rejection of the 2-teamers.

I did an experiment on this last night. I don't even remember the teams. I tried to put in a 2 pick parlay of the home team -1 1/2 and the OVER, the betting screen rejected it. Then I put in a 4 pick parlay, two games the home team -1 1/2 and the OVER on each game. The betting screen took that bet, $50 to win $1100. The bet ended up a loss, 2-1-1. I then backtested this approach for the last two months. LOL It was a total disaster.

I'm thinking of opening a book that takes ONLY these types of parlays. LOL.

Happy hunting.