Money Line vs Spread . . .

[Louisvillekid1]

When I come into the game officially for the first time (doing it the right way) in august, i will implement a strict money management system flat betting approx. 2% of my bankroll per play until reaching certain preset bankroll totals. At which point the 2% will remain constant but will increase/decrease due to the change in total bankroll. I will start with 5k spreading out 1k into 5 books (wsex,bookmaker,matchbook,betjam,and 5dimes) risking 110 (average) to win 100. I have preset levels that when reached will re calcuate the 2% to help grow my roll with minimum risk, that I will post later.

Money line vs Spread. . .

In the past, If i liked a dog i would bet 2x on the spread and x on the ML, this way incase my team fell short straight up i still covered the line. But with my knew system doing this would be risking 3 units per bet when i only want to risk 1. . . I know the money line in the long run probaly is the better way to go for the dogs, but It is very tough when your dog plays great like you knew they would but comes up just short of winning the game but you still lose cuz you bet the ML. Lets look at a game where the dog is + 12 and + 650. Using my system only wanting to risk one unit, its too tempting not to take that ML play. On the flip side if a dog is +2 and + 130 , then it makes sense to take the ML because the 2 points prob wont come into play.

Thoughts? Advice?

[Louisvillekid1]

I feel it should be consistent to sometype of a plan. . . Too much guessing playing some ML's and some spreads, unless there is a plan in place

[SBR Lou]

I don't follow any rule of thumb really. I think you just have to make the best decision within your comfort level, and whatever makes the most sense value wise.

[dwaechte]

We are very alike.

Both started around the same time(as far as I can tell) last fall, have been playing around a bit and both plan on starting a little more seriously come August. I'll even be putting almost identical totals into my accounts(1k in 5 different books hopefully).

Anyways, best of luck to both of us come next football season. I'll post my thoughts on ML/Spread later in the week, not that I could really say much of insight that you wouldn't already know.

[Louisvillekid1]

dwae,

Yea we do seem to have alot in common .. I've been betting with a local for several years, but not the right way. Im just learning everything i can since i joined this site, and been reading many books. I always knew sports and have alot of betting experience, but I had no system in place or anything. Im looking to come into this game for the first time the right way in august, in a big way. Im still only 22 , so this will also give me more time to save money to invest comfortably, and learn from others.

[Louisvillekid1]

JJ, i would like to hear from you about this, maybe a video?

[MoneySportsGuy]

louisville, I am in similiar situation as you, would love to compare and share ideas and strategies. I know alot about sports as well, and bet over the years for fun and now looking to try and learn as much as I can to actually become very good at it, or at least way better then a coin flip What books are you going to use? I have BetJamaica now that I use and signed up on WSEX and Bookmaker but did not deposit on their yet...

oops nevermind just noticed you have your 5 books I am going to stick with the 3 for me right now but work way up. still determinginab about bankroll and how much money to put on each games havent figured out good number or thought about how I should learn to do that.

[donjuan]

The following two statements are not consistent:

doing it the right way

flat betting

Also, your reasoning on point spreads vs. MLs is severely flawed. Look at the push percentages and calculate which has more value (well actually more expected growth).

[MoneySportsGuy]

JJ, i would like to hear from you about this, maybe a video?

actually I think he is going to make a video soon, I asked him the other day about money bankroll management and he said it would be later in the week so I am waiting on that one

[Louisvillekid1]

The following two statements are not consistent:





Also, your reasoning on point spreads vs. MLs is severely flawed. Look at the push percentages and calculate which has more value (well actually more expected growth).

Thanks dude, I can always count on you

[Louisvillekid1]

louisville, I am in similiar situation as you, would love to compare and share ideas and strategies. I know alot about sports as well, and bet over the years for fun and now looking to try and learn as much as I can to actually become very good at it, or at least way better then a coin flip What books are you going to use? I have BetJamaica now that I use and signed up on WSEX and Bookmaker but did not deposit on their yet...

oops nevermind just noticed you have your 5 books I am going to stick with the 3 for me right now but work way up. still determinginab about bankroll and how much money to put on each games havent figured out good number or thought about how I should learn to do that.

Thanks, yea anytime would love to chat . . . I wanna steal a little bit from everyone and add my own flair to it. . . I could always pick winners but would constantly be betting wildly different amounts and such. . .

[donjuan]

Thanks dude, I can always count on you

Just trying to help. If you are serious about sports betting you will be using Kelly bet sizing or some variant of Kelly (such as Kelly/2 or Kelly/4). Also, if you are serious about sports betting you will look at push percentages. Ganchrow makes this VERY easy with his 1/2 pt calc.

[Louisvillekid1]

well that's one way to go . . .

[donjuan]

The other way to go is to admit to hating money.

[Louisvillekid1]

Im still looking into it but it seems that the kelly is only accurate if you can know exactly what % of the time your play is going to hit (or % of confidence in that play) . . . which doesn't seem probable to me. If there is a play where I see an edge then it goes as a play, what makes a different game more valuable than the last? I will do more research on kelly, but if its anything like a star basis style of betting then its not for me. Betting 6 units here and 2 units here and then 10 units there just doesnt make much sense to me because why even bet the 2 unit play if you found a play that is 5x(the 10 unit play) better of a play?

[The HG]

LVkid, you are right that Kelly staking demands a very precise estimation of edge, which is not something you can get on a game-by-game basis just by eyeballing stuff.

You can, however, try to get a pretty good approximation of your overall edge, even just from eyeballing games, and understanding the concepts behind Kelly, regardless of how much you actually deliberately implement them, is pretty important. You're basically going to be implementing an approximation of them anyway.

[donjuan]

what makes a different game more valuable than the last?

Different +ev bets are going to have different edges.

Betting 6 units here and 2 units here and then 10 units there just doesnt make much sense to me because why even bet the 2 unit play if you found a play that is 5x(the 10 unit play) better of a play?

Because they both are +ev, assuming your goal is to make money.

[twoking10]

Yeah, I know exactly what you mean. Betting the money line on a 6.5 to 1 dogs comes with the understanding that you WILL lose a lot of bets. As long as you keep making wagers that make sense, in the long run you come out ahead. But losing so often can do damage to your psyche so you have to be careful that this doesn't cause you to start making bad decisions out of frustration. You never want to bet on dogs just because they are dogs. Keep finding wagers that make sense. Last Saturday, 11/07/09 I took the money line with Nebraska over Oklahoma instead of taking the 4 points and it paid off. The important thing to remember though is that when you use the money line, you need to consider won/loss records heavier than point/statistical data. In any event, I often use the money line with dogs, whereas with the favorites I am more inclined to use the spread. I like VALUE in my wagers.

[twoking10]

Another idea when deciding whether to use the spread or money line is to use the spread/money line calculator available on this website. I think I am going to start employing it. Not every spread or money line makes sense relative to each other. For example, in college football, one dog might be at +6 or +230 while another dog on the same day may be at +5 spread but +240 on the line. How about a test run for the rest of the NFL, NCAAF, and NBA seasons? Whether you actually place the wagers is not significant to the test. Just make a log for all dogs, and see which would have had the greater gain (or smaller loss) if the wagers had been placed on the money line or spread over the course of an entire season.