Would You Book Hank's (JJ) Bets At Even Money?

[BigBollocks]

Assuming you were assured of him paying up, would you really book all of Hank's (JJ's) bets at even money? Obviously there are two ways to win, and that's if he just can't pick winners, or even if he can pick winners if he continues to use poor money management. However, you run the risk of him getting hot and really nailing with you without that juice to protect you. Would you book his action at even money, and if so would you collar him if he got hot early?

[Pareto]

Why would you take anyones bets at even money? Even the worst gamblers have 50% chance of hitting.

[BigBollocks]

Why would you take anyones bets at even money? Even the worst gamblers have 50% chance of hitting.

You'd have to believe he was either: a) an under 50% capper in general, or b) so reckless that he'd lose it all eventually regardless. They had a study involving ph.Ds not that long ago in which they were given a starting bankroll in a 100 hand game with a 55% edge, and something like 75% of them still found a way to lose. I wish I could find that study again.

[pokernut9999]

I would give JJ +110 on every bet.

[Pareto]

You'd have to believe he was either: a) an under 50% capper in general, or b) so reckless that he'd lose it all eventually regardless. They had a study involving ph.Ds not that long ago in which they were given a starting bankroll in a 100 hand game with a 55% edge, and something like 75% of them still found a way to lose. I wish I could find that study again.

A) Being an under 50% capper means he has to be worse than someone who picks games by just throwing a coin. I do not know if that is at all possible.

B) Money management is not important in this matter. If he is a better than 50% capper, then his bets will have +EV. And maybe poor money management will cause him to go bankrupt 99% of the times. But that 1% of the times he will end up winning a huge sum. Giving him the overall +EV.

[Pareto]

You'd have to believe he was either: a) an under 50% capper in general, or b) so reckless that he'd lose it all eventually regardless. They had a study involving ph.Ds not that long ago in which they were given a starting bankroll in a 100 hand game with a 55% edge, and something like 75% of them still found a way to lose. I wish I could find that study again.

But sounds like an interesting study. If you find it again, please share it here.

[Timetopay]

a better question-

would you book 2pacs wagers if he called you 2 minutes into a game?

[BigBollocks]

a better question-

would you book 2pacs wagers if he called you 2 minutes into a game?

And then you have to pay him if he wins, or let him whine for three months straight if his petty shot-taking attempt didn't work. I'd have to pass on that one!

[Thremp]

A) Being an under 50% capper means he has to be worse than someone who picks games by just throwing a coin. I do not know if that is at all possible.

Its just as possible as someone picking over 50%.

[Pareto]

Its just as possible as someone picking over 50%.

Really? I am not talking about his actual performance but about his expected performance.

[Thremp]

Really? I am not talking about his actual performance but about his expected performance.

Yes, really.

[zerocage]

It depends if you want him doing housework to pay off his debts...

[Matt23]

Not a chance...

[jjgold]

I am in a dry spell now but will turn it around. I would not book my own bets.

[BigBollocks]

JJ with these last two blowout losses it looks like your record will be 4-23 in your last 27 plays. If you really made these plays for big money your bookie would own your car and house by now.

[eidolon]

a better question-

would you book 2pacs wagers if he called you 2 minutes into a game?

I would take 2pacs wager. If he loses, I win. If he wins, sorry buddy game had already started, no wager; I dont lose.


Bet with JJs next 10 picks. Guarantee he will be in the positive.

[jjgold]

Vanderbilt -1.0
Texas -1.5
Purdue 1.0
Green Bay -7.5


so far

[pavyracer]

Vanderbilt -1.0
Texas -1.5
Purdue 1.0
Green Bay -7.5


so far

JJ I made a killing this year following you. I know you post the opposite of what you play in this forum so I would like to give a big THANK you for the nice picks. Keep it up and don't you ever start posting your actual plays.

[Louisvillekid1]

Of course

[BigBollocks]

JJ I made a killing this year following you. I know you post the opposite of what you play in this forum so I would like to give a big THANK you for the nice picks. Keep it up and don't you ever start posting your actual plays.

Without question. He's already 0-2 to start off the day again, but is really 2-0. I've known this for awhile, but the character portrayal is funny

[sofos]

Sure