Trading points for better price...anyone?

[Actionbrett]

Over the past month or so i have been getting some very favorable lines "selling" a point or so at matchbook. In my not so extensive research in both basketball/football very rarely does the closing line come within a point or so (sides and totals) (more so in basketball then football). Using the half point calculator it appears by selling one point is giving the book an additional 3% edge on me on most numbers which im willing to take to pay lower juice. I havnt lost a game yet due to moving off a point. Am i lucky so far or playing this right? Anyone else choose this method?

Michigan State +5 at -105 at MB currently and I was able to get Michigan State +3.5 +132 to win 1K. Last night(Thursday) I got Seattle Sonics +8.5 +129 when the original line was +9.5 +108'ish. There were several others but those are the most current ones.

From a value perspective am i making the correct decision?

[Santo]

It's impossible to speak in generalities, you need to do the math in each case to find out the value of the specific points/half-points you are giving up.

[bigboydan]

Using the half point calculator it appears by selling one point is giving the book an additional 3% edge on me on most numbers which im willing to take to pay lower juice.

I believe it would be 3.7%

[donjuan]

From a value perspective am i making the correct decision?

From the limited info you have given us, you are not.

[Ganchrow]

Michigan State +5 at -105 at MB currently and I was able to get Michigan State +3.5 +132 to win 1K.

According to the HPC betting +3½ +132 in NCAA FB when the "true" line is +5 Even has an expectation of +7.87%, making this an excellent bet EV-wise.

Last night(Thursday) I got Seattle Sonics +8.5 +129 when the original line was +9.5 +108'ish.

According to the HPC betting +8½ +129 in NBA when the "true" line is +9½+108/-9½-128 has an expectation of -5.26%, making this a very poor bet EV-wise. (If the true line were +9½+108/-9½-118 implies expectation of -3.18%).

[Doug]

According to the HPC betting +3½ +132 in NCAA FB when the "true" line is +5 Even has an expectation of +7.87%, making this an excellent bet EV-wise.

According to the HPC betting +8½ +129 in NCAA FB when the "true" line is +9½+108/-9½-128 has an expectation of -5.26%, making this a very poor bet EV-wise. (If the true line were +9½+108/-9½-118 implies expectation of -3.18%).

It's NBA not CFB. I'd say the second one is a decent sell.

[Ganchrow]

It's NBA not CFB. I'd say the second one is a decent sell.

EV figures were correct, I had just mistakenly copied and pasted "NCAA FB".

Post fixed, thanks.

[Doug]

It doesn't sound correct to me, Scott.

At Pinny now Minn is +8.5 -103, if you take +7.5 you get +116.

Going the other way its -129,+116.

You can generally buy a few halves at 10 cents each, so selling a point ( NBA) for 21 cents seems like it should be +EV.

[Wheell]

Actually, the question of whether or not to sell the points should not be based on the value relative to the middle of the line, it should be made relative to the best line being offered. The reason for this is that the burden on buying or selling points shouldn't be to make an ev neutral bet good, but to make taking the side you are already taking even better. Presume for a second I know I am going to take the Detroit Pistons against the San Antonio Spurs. The Pistons are 6.5 underdogs. I can get +6.5 -108 at Pinnacle. The Spurs are -6.5 -102. The middle would be Pistons -103. At Matchbook I can get Pistons -7.5 +116 after commissions. This line is better than the +6.5 -108, but not positive EV against the middle (at least, according to my spreadsheets...)

In any event it would be wise to check Ganchrow's buy/sell calculator whenever possible before you make a buy/sell decision.

[durito]

It doesn't sound correct to me, Scott.

At Pinny now Minn is +8.5 -103, if you take +7.5 you get +116.

Going the other way its -129,+116.

You can generally buy a few halves at 10 cents each, so selling a point ( NBA) for 21 cents seems like it should be +EV.

If we assume that +8.5 -103 and -8.5 -107 is the fair market price for this game tonight. If the Calculator is correct, +7.5 +116 is a slightly better price (but still a -2.08% expectation) and -9.5 +111 is worse.

I don't have any data to support this, but given the prices they generally charge to buy/sell points, I seriously doubt you can get better value buying or selling points at pinnacle.

[Doug]

bump for Pat M.