When is it time to start fading the Celtics?

rjt721 · 12-19-07, 03:23 AM

Not sure about regularly fading them, but their schedule has been quite favorable. They head out West the day after Christmas with 4 road games in 5 nights, the last 2 being at Utah and the Lakers on back-to-back nights. They'll have a difficult time winning either of those two.

The HG · 12-19-07, 04:41 AM

I've had that in the back of my mind for a long time BB.

Garnett is not the most durable of sorts, and Paul Pierce never struck me as someone who had the best character around, the kind you need to have the disposition to play at the top level day in and day out in the NBA. And they are not a terribly deep team either. Of course they are legitimately good, but I don't quite see them as at the same level as the elite teams of the past few years - Spurs, Dallas, Phoenix.

As for fading them, who knows how great and how sustained the value will be when they come down to earth a bit. Everyone will be looking for it, so it could easily be very brief. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if there were even an overreaction if they stumble a bit. But there probably will be at least a small stretch where there is somewhat clear and decent value going against them.

But again, everyone will be looking for it, so my feeling is it won't be anything great - nothing, for instance, like playing on Portland has been recently.

If you're looking for a team that might have "fade" value some time in the near future, I think that might happen to GS.

BuddyBear · 12-19-07, 04:49 AM

Well based on the previous 3 years the top teams had the following winning percentages:

2006 Dallas 81.7%
2005 Detroit 78 %
2004 Phoenix 75.6%

Based on those numbers alone, it is reasonable to assume that the Celtics will fade a bit (maybe not much though, they are in the East).

Bill Dozer · 12-19-07, 09:09 AM

I'm interested to see how the bookmakers react after their next loss. Will they be priced to come back strong since losses have been so far apart? They probably won't fall as hard as Orlando but I can see them going cold.

accuscoresucks · 12-19-07, 09:16 AM

today is a good day if any to fade boston.im staying away from this one,to close for my blood

Arnold · 12-19-07, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by accuscoresucks

today is a good day if any to fade boston.im staying away from this one,to close for my blood

Today they play at home where they outscored their opponents by about 17 points on average. I don't think today is the day, even if it's against Detroit.

Lucas · 12-20-07, 12:06 AM

apparently we all missed the right time
but nice thoughts here

Bill Dozer · 12-20-07, 12:26 AM

Line on celts/bulls game? I'll guess 7.5.

MJFtheGenius · 12-20-07, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by Lucas

apparently we all missed the right time
but nice thoughts here

I would not say they should have been faded tonight, the line was just inflated. The Pistons are a elite team, anytime an elite team gets 6 points i will bet it.

Lucas · 12-20-07, 12:45 AM

Originally posted by Bill Dozer

Line on celts/bulls game? I'll guess 7.5.

if this is true, i would guess it will move further to bigger spread... i do not think overreaction will come, many like to bet favs after big loss

BuddyBear · 12-20-07, 01:06 AM

big moose on the over in this game....

after 1Q, 54 pts (O/U 182 mind you).....yet,finish with 172. To top it off, that dumb fvck fouls the best ft shooter in the NBA with no time left to cash the under instead of going to OT!

SBR_John · 12-20-07, 01:35 AM

I think they fade down the stretch. They are playing playoff intense ball way too early. Look at the Pistons, Spurs and Suns and they are just cruising. I dont think the Celtics know the time to peak is not right now. I do know the Spurs know. I still like the Pistons to win the East and face either the Spurs or Suns depending on who is healthy.

idontlikerocks · 12-20-07, 02:30 AM

pistons against spurs will be boring as hell. is there any way to get an exciting championship in basketball?

TheOffshoreGambler · 12-20-07, 07:01 AM

I agree.. Will be fun to watch. The fans are definitely into it after what 10 years as cellar dwellers. But barring injury to some of these older players I see them there at the end. They do need to pace them selves as SBR said or they will be tired down the stretch.