Blackjack Card Counting

2Pac · 12-12-07, 03:54 AM

Probability

donjuan · 12-12-07, 04:11 AM

Read a book and find out why. Basic answer is that while you will sometimes deviate from basic strategy based on the count, you will be betting more when the deck is in your favor (rich in face cards).
Think about why high cards are bad for the dealer and why low cards are good.

SBR_John · 12-12-07, 04:41 AM

Rich high card counts also give the player more blackjacks, the dealer too but the player gets paid x 1.5 for his

.

Most hands you will play the same no matter what the count is. Hands of 12,13,14,15 are examples of hands you will play differently if you know the count. Hence you will win more of those hands than you would using basic stradegy.

Ganchrow · 12-12-07, 06:45 AM

Even without deviations in strategy based on index numbers (the importance of which decreases as the number of decks and/or the necessity of camouflaging oneself increase) such as taking insurance, standing on 15 or 16 versus a dealer 10, or splitting 10s versus 5s and 6s, there are still other sources of asymmetry which provide excess value for the player under a high count.

For example, (as John already pointed out) the player receives a payout of 3:2 on BJ (while the dealer only receives 1:1), and the dealer is required to hit on hard totals of 16 or less while the player is under no such obligation.

louis · 12-12-07, 10:34 AM

Most all of the advantage comes from varying the bet according to the count, and playing perfect basic strategy. Deviating from basic strategy is not going to add much in the games you find today. If you are going to play single deck, then varying from basic stratgegy is worthwhile. Good luck finding a good game.

Ganchrow · 12-12-07, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by louis

Most all of the advantage comes from varying the bet according to the count, and playing perfect basic strategy. Deviating from basic strategy is not going to add much in the games you find today. If you are going to play single deck, then varying from basic stratgegy is worthwhile.

Very true. As I mentioned in an earlier post the importance of index numbers decreases as the number of decks increase.

The said, even with 6-deck shoes there are still important strategies which an advantage player would well to remember (either because they occur frequently or because they provide so much extra value). The most important 18 basic strategy adjustments (in terms of the increase to expected value) are know as the "illustrious 18", which is a term coined by the the Illustrious BJ guru Don Schlesinger (author of the canonical Blackjack Attack).

The illustrious 18 for a simple hi-lo count on a 4D S17 game (i.e., 4-deck, dealer stands on soft 17), along with the applicable index numbers at which the relevant strategy adjustments become +EV are given here in decreasing order of importance: Illustrious 18 Indices. If you only use the first 3 (insurance, and 16s and 15s versus 10s) I think (if memory serves correctly) that that represents as much as two-thirds of the value to be gained from basic strategy modifications. Or something like that.

If you're playing a game which permits surrender there are 4 other adjustments (christened the "fab four" by Schelsinger) which also frequently come into play, although I forget the exact details (but it has to do with 15s and 14s versus dealers As, 9s 10s). I have no idea of their importance relative to the 18 (although I'm sure Google would help).

BrentCrude · 12-12-07, 08:15 PM

Isn't getting kicked out of a casino for card counting equivalent to a thought crime?

So how does a casino decide who's counting cards?Counting on fingers?Toe tapping?Talking to yourself?Using a notepad?Just say that you are handicapped and have a disability with little twitches like Tascacks ''spelling''disease.Hell,you could probably tell the dealer FU and call him shit head after every hand and get the casino in trouble with the government disabilities act if you get tossed out.hehe!

I honestly think allot of people do goofball things at the table so they get kicked out where they can tell people they are a professional card counters banned from certain casinos.What good blackjack player that gives classes,seminars and writes books doesn't want it on his resume that he's been banned from casinos.

If you are taking too much time dissrupting the whole rhythm of the game I can understand why the casino would not want that if that's part of your card counting method.

When I was just turning legal age for gambling I would use as many match plays as I could find to play blackjack.Dumby me,I didn't realize that I would be pretty unpopular with the players at the table by doing this and leaving after 2 hands dissrupting the whole flow of the game.One guy finally told me that hardened players don't take kindly to drive by coupon cashers.Hell,Anthony Curtiss the so called most visible professional gambler in Vegas that you see on t.v.5 times a day does that coupon cashing scheme all the time.The casino probably loves the drive by coupon cashers because it upsets the strategy of players etc.

You just can't win at casinos,either you piss off the casino or else the players.My favorite scheme was playing with house chips where you paid $15 and got $30 in chips as a promotion.You could play craps and play $1 chip at a time and if you won,you got the house chip back and a real $1 chip.Here I was,playing a chip that's not even a real dollar and there were thousands of dollars at times riding on my shakes.Once again,half the people love you,half the people hate you.People actually get pissed like you had control of the dice and made bad rolls on purpose because you only were betting the equivalence of less than a dollar.

donjuan · 12-12-07, 08:20 PM

So how does a casino decide who's counting cards?Counting on fingers?Toe tapping?Talking to yourself?Using a notepad?Just say that you are handicapped and have a disability with little twitches like Tascacks ''spelling''disease.Hell,you could probably tell the dealer FU and call him head after every hand and get the casino in trouble with the government disabilities act if you get tossed out.hehe!

If you are counting and take no active measures to disguise your play, it is very easy to spot a card counter. It has nothing to do with anything you mentioned.

BrentCrude · 12-12-07, 08:39 PM

When the Indian casinos first opened up in my area,they gave tons of blackjack promotions to especially seniors who never played before.In the promo packs would be those little wheelie tipster devices like Richard Simmons deal a meal cards.It held up the games,pissed off the hardened regular players,probably lost the casino $$$$$$.I know it was small potatoes compared to card counting on a grand scale but are there any rules against sitting at a table in Vegas using these devices?

On old Windows packages they used to have a great blackjack game and class room called Dr.blackjack.When you took a bad hit it would stop the game and ask you if you wanted to change your mind and it gave suggestions.You knew you were becoming a decent player when you could sit their continuously for an hour playing rapid fire games and never have the suggestion screen come up.

Do you ever notice that when some novice at a blackjack game takes an awful hit or stand and the hardened players lose,everyone gets upset as they probably should but when a novice takes a bad hit or stand where everyone wins,no one says thanks to the idiot.It's like sports fans who only recognize bad calls that cost you games and never say how many games went your way because of bad calls on the other team.

Louisvillekid1 · 12-12-07, 08:44 PM

Listen i can count a deck of cards in under 15 seconds and that is the easy part. It is very easy to spot a counter because they will sit there and play the minimum bet for hours waiting for the count to go into their favor, then out of nowhere ( if the count ever goes into their favor) start betting huge amounts. Or they will signal another person to enter the game and start off betting big right away when the count is high. I've tried it a few times and have not really got the count in my favor that much. It's also easy to count cards at home or practicing with your friends , but there are tons of distractions at the table. Even with all that you need a big bankroll to start with to be successful.

curious · 12-12-07, 08:59 PM

I have been playing blackjack for many years. I made my living playing blackjack for two years. I have never been "barred" or "backed off" for counting cards. I have never had a casino refuse my play. I don't go out of my way to hide what I am doing. Experienced dealers always know if you are counting. They can usually tell you the count. I always tip good when winning, I know most blackjack "experts" tell you not to tip, but I disagree with that advice. If the dealer wants to make trouble for you, they can, and they know you are counting. I give the dealers a reason not to make trouble for me. Most of the casinos I play at I know the pit bosses and the dealers by name. The only thing I do for cover is use a positive progression when the count is neutral or trending negative. I say trending negative because as the count gets more and more negative that means high cards are coming out and high cards favor the player. I know this is counter intuitive but it is real. A positive progression is a fun way to play when it works and it is easy to teach to other players. I have had many nights when the positive progression was working and I was coaching a table full of "newbies" through betting the progression and their pile of chips kept getting bigger and bigger. And they were having the time of their lives. I know, I know the math nazis will complain that progressions "don't work" but a positive progression is not very dangerous and is very fun to play when working and is good cover.

I am a happy go lucky person by nature and when I am at a table I liven it up. I tell jokes and stories and say all kinds of crazy shit to the dealers. I sing and dance when I win a big hand. I purposely get carried away with acting foolish so that a lot of hands I have no idea what the total of my cards is, let alone what a count might be, or so it seems if you are watching me. Other players like playing at a table I am at. The dealers like the tips. The waitresses like the tips. I would guess that the pit bosses know I'm a sharp player but they don't really care because I am good for their business. I never try to "kill" a casino. I play for medium size stakes, green and black, sometimes green, black, and purple.

I think the reason that people get "barred" (and I have never seen this happen, nor do I know anyone who has been barred) has more to do with demeanor than with being recognized as a "card counter". I know for a fact that some of the pit bosses I know know or at least suspect that I count cards, but they don't care.

I will say that I don't play in Vegas very often, so maybe things are different there.

I would agree that it is hard to find a good game. The most important thing in playing blackjack is finding a good game. A game is valued based on the number of decks, the penetration, and the rules. It is very hard to find a one or two deck game with deep penetration and favorable rules.

There are other techniques that are more valuable than card counting. Shuffle tracking can be awesome. Ace steering is very profitable if you bet big when the Ace is coming. Hole card spooking is a license to print money. I try to find dealers that are sloppy in dealing themselves a hole card so that if I slouch down in my chair I can catch a glance at it.

To be good at blackjack takes hours and hours and hours of study, practice, and travel, travel looking for good games. I don't play very much any more because I frankly don't think all that effort is worth the return. If you put the same amount of effort into your career or into a business you will do much better.

Curious

tblues2005 · 12-12-07, 11:15 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Listen i can count a deck of cards in under 15 seconds and that is the easy part. It is very easy to spot a counter because they will sit there and play the minimum bet for hours waiting for the count to go into their favor, then out of nowhere ( if the count ever goes into their favor) start betting huge amounts. Or they will signal another person to enter the game and start off betting big right away when the count is high. I've tried it a few times and have not really got the count in my favor that much. It's also easy to count cards at home or practicing with your friends , but there are tons of distractions at the table. Even with all that you need a big bankroll to start with to be successful.

I agree you do need a decent bankroll and if you didn't wager too high sometimes you will be not noticed as much either, I know a guy here that card counts at the casino and he told me that he walks out with $500 each time he gos to the casino and he does that probably about 3 times a week at different casinos, he told me he comes out ahead about 80 percent of the time, he comes with a $250 bankroll he told me and he is a smart person and he just doesn't bet too heavy when he has it in his favor, like if he is at a $25 table, he will be the mininum and then when he gets the cards in his favor he plays say $100, not the max which then tips the pit bosses off, or he will go $75 or something like that so he really doesn't get noticed as badly. He heads to the casino about 2 or 3 times a week and since there is only about 5 or 6 casinos here he just heads there at busy times like on weekend nights or after a ball game when he knows that they are busier and they don't even notice, I have been with him before and he has a plan and he sticks with it. I give him credit for how he does it and he doesn't even have to work at all. He is a professional gambler as they say and he doesn't get greedy like some that get caught and the casino does everything possible to make it harder on the ones that get caught. That is key if you are a card counter you don't want to get caught by the casino and he hasn't had a problem going on three years that I known him.

THE HITMAN · 12-13-07, 12:06 AM

Ahhhhhh, the good 'ol days of yesteryear when only one deck was used in "friendly" games when no one even had a ghost of a thought about what you were doing.

BrentCrude · 12-13-07, 12:25 AM

You think movies don't influence people.Remember Nicholas Cage and Joe Peschi ransacking blackjack tables in Leaving Las Vegas and Casino?We had a minor mafioso type guy that had a bar named Goodfellas and he got drunk at the local casino and didn't like his luck so he went balistic on the table and got banned for life.A couple years later he was plowing snow on the lake the casino sits on where he had a cabin and he went through the ice with his truck and drowned.All characters should die violent and unusual deaths.What character wants to live to be 100 and die in his sleep with a depend undergarment on with babyfood stains on the front of his shirt.Live fast,get hard,die young and leave a beautiful memory.

Maledetto · 12-13-07, 12:41 AM

Originally posted by curious

I am a happy go lucky person by nature and when I am at a table I liven it up. I tell jokes and stories and say all kinds of crazy shit to the dealers. I sing and dance when I win a big hand. I purposely get carried away with acting foolish so that a lot of hands I have no idea what the total of my cards is, let alone what a count might be, or so it seems if you are watching me. Other players like playing at a table I am at. The dealers like the tips. The waitresses like the tips. I would guess that the pit bosses know I'm a sharp player but they don't really care because I am good for their business. I never try to "kill" a casino.

I would say this is the most important facet of BJ success, if your demeanor herd sheeps in, then certainly casinos are tolerable of counters. It's like books letting a few sharpen the lines up before going live.

ronald · 12-13-07, 12:51 AM

I personally know someone who has received a lifetime ban from three casinos for card counting.

thebigguy · 12-13-07, 02:18 AM

I agree with Curious, the returns are not there for the effort involved.

curious · 12-13-07, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by tblues2005

I agree you do need a decent bankroll and if you didn't wager too high sometimes you will be not noticed as much either, I know a guy here that card counts at the casino and he told me that he walks out with $500 each time he gos to the casino and he does that probably about 3 times a week at different casinos, he told me he comes out ahead about 80 percent of the time, he comes with a $250 bankroll he told me and he is a smart person and he just doesn't bet too heavy when he has it in his favor, like if he is at a $25 table, he will be the mininum and then when he gets the cards in his favor he plays say $100, not the max which then tips the pit bosses off, or he will go $75 or something like that so he really doesn't get noticed as badly. He heads to the casino about 2 or 3 times a week and since there is only about 5 or 6 casinos here he just heads there at busy times like on weekend nights or after a ball game when he knows that they are busier and they don't even notice, I have been with him before and he has a plan and he sticks with it. I give him credit for how he does it and he doesn't even have to work at all. He is a professional gambler as they say and he doesn't get greedy like some that get caught and the casino does everything possible to make it harder on the ones that get caught. That is key if you are a card counter you don't want to get caught by the casino and he hasn't had a problem going on three years that I known him.

This idea of getting "caught" at a low stakes table is total nonsense. I've been playing blackjack for many years and have never been bothered, nor do I know anyone who has been bothered. Maybe, if a player was playing at a high stakes table and was being obnoxious they might get bothered for being a "counter" but I have never seen that happen.

Counting cards is a grind. The variance is enormous. To ensure not losing your entire bank your max bet cannot be more than 3 or 4% of the bank. You lose the most money when the count is high but the cards are not falling your way.

curious · 12-13-07, 08:13 AM

Originally posted by ronald

I personally know someone who has received a lifetime ban from three casinos for card counting.

Then I would say that he was either playing high stakes and trying to "take down" the casino and got noticed, or he was being an asshole while playing. Or he was being so blatantly obvious that whoever banned him had to do it because his bosses were noticing.

curious · 12-13-07, 08:18 AM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Listen i can count a deck of cards in under 15 seconds and that is the easy part. It is very easy to spot a counter because they will sit there and play the minimum bet for hours waiting for the count to go into their favor, then out of nowhere ( if the count ever goes into their favor) start betting huge amounts. Or they will signal another person to enter the game and start off betting big right away when the count is high. I've tried it a few times and have not really got the count in my favor that much. It's also easy to count cards at home or practicing with your friends , but there are tons of distractions at the table. Even with all that you need a big bankroll to start with to be successful.

The variance in blackjack is unbelievable. Yes, in the long run a counter playing a game with few decks, good penetration, and advantageous rules has a small edge. BUT, the long run in blackjack is millions of hands. While getting to the long run a player is going to experience long periods of LOSING. The probabilities swing back eventually, but to be able to suffer through the negative cycle a bankroll has to be at least 100 times the average bet size, some people say (people I trust) to use a bankroll of 100 times the maximum bet size.

Now, if you just like playing blackjack for fun and want to learn counting so that your play will last a little longer, nothing wrong with that. Personally, if I want to play just for fun I use a positive progression.

gambleballs · 12-13-07, 08:46 AM

These days there can be no such thing as a low stakes card counter because the games are simply unbeatable with counting alone. 8 deck 6:5 games are prominent along the strip and they aren't going away anytime soon with tourists packing the tables. 6:5 is even showing up downtown. Good games can be found at $100 mins and above in Vegas but they are watched closely if you are unknown and a great deal of cover play has to be used if you expect to play with any longevity. Other parts of the country should be where you're looking if you want to seriously attack the game.

louis · 12-13-07, 12:09 PM

Can't make a living without backoffs and large stakes

Curious, how in the world did you make a living playing blackjack for two years and were never backed off? Were you playing overseas? If you play such small stakes that there were no back offs, how did this make you enough money to cover all your expenses?

I guess I know one area of the country that would not back counters off on deeply dealt single deck, but this was 15 years ago. Maybe you were there. I actually think I know who you are from Wong's pages.

Vegas has not been playable for years. The casinos have pretty much killed the game of blackjack.

You can beat the game, but it is not easy money. Making a living is possible, but extremely hard. In the past it was much easier.

Stick to sportsbetting.

donjuan · 12-13-07, 12:23 PM

Stick to sportsbetting.

Given that he is a sports betting donk, I would advise against this.

SBR_John · 12-13-07, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by gambleballs

These days there can be no such thing as a low stakes card counter because the games are simply unbeatable with counting alone. 8 deck 6:5 games are prominent along the strip and they aren't going away anytime soon with tourists packing the tables. 6:5 is even showing up downtown. Good games can be found at $100 mins and above in Vegas but they are watched closely if you are unknown and a great deal of cover play has to be used if you expect to play with any longevity. Other parts of the country should be where you're looking if you want to seriously attack the game.

Excellent post. Bottomline is dont waste your time. Counting is no fun. You can basically have no conversation and you must play many hours. You must learn how to count accurately and how to play each hand according to the count. If you still want to go for it what i would suggest is;

1 Buy a copy of Lawrence Revere's "Playing Blackjack as a Business".

2 Buy a blackjack software stradegy simulator that has the ability to deal you cards at different speeds for practice.

Jamie_UK · 12-13-07, 01:40 PM

El Cortez has paid for every one of my vegas trips, 2 deck nice rules and dumb staff that will take a 25/1 press.

curious · 12-13-07, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by louis

Curious, how in the world did you make a living playing blackjack for two years and were never backed off? Were you playing overseas? If you play such small stakes that there were no back offs, how did this make you enough money to cover all your expenses?

I guess I know one area of the country that would not back counters off on deeply dealt single deck, but this was 15 years ago. Maybe you were there. I actually think I know who you are from Wong's pages.

Vegas has not been playable for years. The casinos have pretty much killed the game of blackjack.

You can beat the game, but it is not easy money. Making a living is possible, but extremely hard. In the past it was much easier.

Stick to sportsbetting.

I played all over the country. Gulf Coast Miss is my favorite place. I also played the Indian reservations in Minnesota and the "riverboats" up and down the Mississippi. I played Atlantic city sometimes. I only played Vegas a couple of times. I went to Canada a few times. I found a casino in Minnesota that offered the OVER/UNDER 13 side bet. LOL I LOVE that bet. You bring a friend and have the friend keep the OVER/UNDER count while you keep the blackjack count. Helps if the friend has nice cleavage and a really low cut top.

I try to find a table with a low minimum and a high maximum. I play a positive progression when the count is neutral or trending down and I play the count in green or black when the count is above +2. Sometimes I play a positive progression with the count. Or I might parlay winning bets when the count is good. I found tables in Biloxi/Gulfport that had $5 minimum and $2000 maximum. LOL. I also bring "Friends" who are dressed very "friendly" and have the bubble head routine down pat. My favorite play of all times was when the count was in orbit, and my "friend" said "I feel lucky, those purple chips match my earrings" and she pushed 4 purple chips into the betting circle just as the dealer dealt the first card...I yelled "NOOOOOOOOO" but the dealer had already dealt the card, so I pretended to be upset...."DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA how much money that is??" My friend said "NO, but these chips match my earrings and I think that is lucky". Her first card was a 9, the dealer's up card was a 6, my friends second card was an Ace, she said "1+9 is 10 and I saw when you have 10 you down double, so I will do that, then she pushed another 4 purple chips behind her original bet " and smiled at the dealer and said "I want to down double". The dealer tried to talk her out of doubling down on a soft 20 (which is the correct play in a high count, but only a card counter or an idiot would double down a soft 20)...but she stuck to her guns, and she got a 10, so now she had hard 20. The dealer busted. My friend scooped up the $4000 and ran off to "play slots". LOL Now, if I had done that same play I would have set off a flashing light that said "CARD COUNTER", but my "bubblehead" friend with great cleavage and low cut top could get away with murder.

I found that if you play the count times a certain amount, lets call it X, religiously, then anyone can tell you are counting. But if you vary the $ amount to multiply the count by, then it becomes more difficult for someone to realize what you are doing.

So, instead of using just X times the count, pick several amounts to multiply times the count, lets call them T, U, V, Y, and Z. Now, use T untill you lose, then switch to Z, then switch to U, then switch to V, then switch to Y. Just make sure that by the end of the night you have balanced out which factor you used in similar counts, that way you don't change expected value.

Add to this a positive progression. Now, you watch me play and you tell me am I betting with the count? Or am I betting with the progression? Or am I doing both? Or am I betting on this hand because I am Ace steering and I know that the next card out is an Ace? Or did I bet what I just bet because I am shuffle tracking and I know that this next clump of cards is rich in high cards? Or did I bet what I just bet just for the hell of it? Or is this a single deck game where they deal out all the cards and I just spread to 3 hands because I know that the cards in the discard pile are all high cards and I want to eat up the rest of the deck so that all of these low cards will end up in the discard pile and the dealer will be using the high cards for the next deal? So that I am now going to be betting big off the top of the deck? Of, did I just bet what I did because I know that there are 2 Aces in the remaining deck and I know that this will be the last deal before the dealer has to start using the discards and I want to catch these aces so that is why I spread to 3 hands of table maximum?

I never said I played "small" stakes. But, I am not a whale either. I try to play table minimum if the count is neutral or choppy, I switch to 2 times the table minimum and use a positive progression of next bet equals previous bet plus 50% of the winnings if the count starts trending down from +2 or lower. By the way I won the most money I ever won with a positive progression while the count was getting more and more negative.

Sometimes I use two hand wonging. Sometimes I use a tactic where if the count is < +2 and I win, I let the winnings ride and move to two hands, if both those hands win I let half the winnings ride until both hands lose then I go back to whatever I was doing before the run started. Betting two hands lets you wager 30% more money for the same risk.

When I was making a living playing blackjack I lived in Biloxi in a rented condo with a dead on view of the Gulf. Beau Rivage was my favorite place to play. They were offering a single deck game where they dealt out all the cards, with 6:5 odds instead of 3:2. I LOVED that game. The trick to beating that game is to use the end game that Thorp talked about in his book.

You can't just use a simple plus minus count, you have to know what cards are left to play and you have to know how many cards are left to be dealt out. When you know the cut card will come out in the next round you have to spread to more hands so that you get deeper into the deck.

A lot goes into this if you plan to win.

curious · 12-13-07, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by SBR_John

Excellent post. Bottomline is dont waste your time. Counting is no fun. You can basically have no conversation and you must play many hours. You must learn how to count accurately and how to play each hand according to the count. If you still want to go for it what i would suggest is;

1 Buy a copy of Lawrence Revere's "Playing Blackjack as a Business".

2 Buy a blackjack software strategy simulator that has the ability to deal you cards at different speeds for practice.

No conversation? Hell, I tell the craziest stories and make all kinds of jokes and dance when I win big singing "That's the way you do it do it" Or, "doin' it, doin' it, doin' it yeah". I carry on the most tom foolery I can.

To watch me play you would think I don't even know what the cards in my hand add up to (to be honest, a lot of the time I don't LOL), but I know EXACTLY what cards have been played and what cards are in the remaining deck at all times.

SBR_John · 12-13-07, 08:56 PM

Most will have to use every bit of focus and concentration to keep a correct count except maybe in single deck.

I do agree that Miss was the place for a good long run. I played TheGrand at the two deck table. It was money.

I would strongly advise a player practice a month with a simulator. Have the simulator auto deal at a fast pace on a full table an 8 deck shoe. The first week your count will not even be close to the real count. Dont try to learn at the casino, you will be destroyed quickly playing bad counts.

louis · 12-14-07, 12:46 AM

Curious, you were able to beat a 6:5 single deck game? How in the world did you do that? Maybe a lot of luck. Wong and other experts advise to stay far away from these. Your off the top disadvantage is huge, and high counts don't mean that much when the dealer's bjs pay almost as much as your own.

Sure the game is theoretically beatable if the dealer is going to deal to the bottom and you have a fantastic memory for keeping track of cards. But most dealers are afraid of running out of cards, and again you need a high average bet to make a living at this game. The pit is going to wonder why someone with such a high average bet doesn't play the bj pays 3:2 games being offered. In order to get a dealer to deal to the bottom you need a heads up game, which is tough to find since these carnival games usually come with $5 minimums. The 3:2 games being offered in the high limit area may give you a head's up game, but then surveillance is watching and those dealers are not going to be dealing to the bottom in any casino I know.

I just got back from Biloxi. The poker was good. Lots of players blowing money, after watching the world series of pooker on tv.

10 to 15 years ago they had great double deck bj games all over town. Today, forget it. They may at Beau Rivage, but if you're good they will politely invite you to play something else after cancelling all your comps. I didn't closely look at their 6:5 games. Double decks are being cut in half at most of the other casinos. You will need an enormous spread to beat them. Shoe games have at least 2 decks cut off. Good luck making a living playing bj, today, in this town. Its true they don't back that many people off, because they don't see many counters interested in playing their junk any more.

I admire that you were able to spread from $5 to $2000. I would have to agree that would beat a lot of bj games, but you might have to sit around forever waiting to bet the $2000 since high counts don't occur very often with the penetration being offered in Biloxi and elsewhere. And of course, this would take an act and acting as good as some of the famous people one sees playing roles in the movies. You still need to make a lot of $2000 bets to make a living, and after the first one you think they will fall for this surprise again.

curious · 12-14-07, 01:18 AM

Originally posted by louis

You were able to beat a 6:5 single deck game? How in the world did you do that? Maybe a lot of luck. Wong and other experts advise to stay far away from these. Your off the top disadvantage is huge, and high counts don't mean that much when the dealer's bjs pay almost as much as your own.

Sure the game is theoretically beatable if the dealer is going to deal out every last card and you have a fantastic memory for keeping track of cards. But most dealers are afraid of running out of cards, and again you need a high average bet to make a living at this game. The pit is going to wonder why someone with such a high average bet doesn't play the bj pays 3:2 games being offered.

Interesting that Biloxi offered this game dealt to the bottom, but finding any single deck game, 3:2 or 6:5, dealt all the way to the bottom is going to be pretty tough these days.

The dealer isn't afraid of running out of cards, they just shuffle the discards and keep playing. Obviously, you have never seen a blackjack game where they deal out all the cards.

A single deck game, if all the cards are dealt out, is easy to beat. Even if they pay 6:5. No one offers this game at 3:2, Beau Rivage offered it at 6:5. Another casino, I forget their name, offered it at 1:1. The pit doesn't even watch this game because they feel that the 6:5 gives them enough of an edge that they don't have to. They read Wong too. You can't believe everything Wong says. When he says not to play the 6:5 single deck game, he is assuming that you are using a plus minus counting system, and he is assuming a cut card is being used and penetration is not excellent.

You can't beat the single deck 6:5 game using a simple plus minus count. You have to use Thorp's end game tactics. And you have to know exactly which cards have been dealt and which cards are remaining to be dealt, and you have to know what is in the discard tray and what is in the remaining deck waiting to be dealt. Please don't think that you can't keep track of every card played in single deck, bridge players, gin rummy players, and other card game players do it every day. That is how I learned it, a bridge player I know laughed at me when she found out that I couldn't do that. She said you wouldn't last 10 minutes playing bridge if you can't do that.

If all the cards are dealt out, and I know what cards are left to be dealt at all times, when the deck gets down to a few cards, then I know the probability of getting an Ace or a ten valued card as my first card with some degree of certainty. If I KNOW that my first card will be an Ace, I have a 60% edge over the house, if I KNOW my first card will be a ten valued card, I have a 30% edge over the house. So, the end game is highly profitable. Shuffle tracking is very profitable, because I can manipulate to some degree what goes in the discard tray and what goes into the cards to be shuffled.

It isn't possible to teach the end game technique in a post, but I will try to cover it briefly.

Say there are 10 cards remaining to be dealt, and I know that they are mostly low cards. What I want to do is make sure that the dealer runs out of cards with all of these 10 cards on the table, this ensures that the deck he shuffles and deals from next will be rich in high cards, the dealer will shuffle the discards and start using them, so I want to make sure that none of these low cards ends up in the discard tray, if I can. So, what I do is spread to 2 or 3 hands and then keep hitting until one or two cards are left, these cards will probably be taken by the dealer, depends on the dealer's up card. If I can use up all 10 cards, the dealer will be forced to shuffle the discards and start using them, all the cards on the table will then go into the discard tray. So, now I am playing against a deck that I know is rich in high cards. So, I am going to up my bet significantly. You throw basic strategy out the window when playing these end game hands. You don't care about basic strategy, you want to eat up the cards.

Conversely, if I know the remaining 10 cards are mostly high cards I am going to spread to 3 hands and up my bet drastically because my chances of getting good hands is higher. Now, suppose that there are only 2 cards left and I know one of them is an Ace, I am going to spread to 2 hands and bet table max on each, because if I get an Ace as my first card my edge is 60%. My edge from a freshly shuffled deck is -3%, so averaging the two I still have a 30% edge.

Beau Rivage offered this game for at least a year, I haven't been there since Katrina, so I don't know if they still offer the game.

You won't beat blackjack if all you do is read Wong. He might be wrong on some things, and he doesn't teach everything you need to know.

Curious

curious · 12-14-07, 01:20 AM

Originally posted by louis

You were able to beat a 6:5 single deck game? How in the world did you do that? Maybe a lot of luck. Wong and other experts advise to stay far away from these. Your off the top disadvantage is huge, and high counts don't mean that much when the dealer's bjs pay almost as much as your own.

Sure the game is theoretically beatable if the dealer is going to deal to the bottom and you have a fantastic memory for keeping track of cards. But most dealers are afraid of running out of cards, and again you need a high average bet to make a living at this game. The pit is going to wonder why someone with such a high average bet doesn't play the bj pays 3:2 games being offered. In order to get a dealer to deal to the bottom you need a heads up game, which is tough to find since these carnival games usually come with $5 minimums. The 3:2 games being offered in the high limit area may give you a head's up game, but then surveillance is watching and those dealers are not going to be dealing to the bottom in any casino I know.

I just got back from Biloxi. The poker was good. Lots of players blowing money, after watching the world series of pooker on tv.

10 to 15 years ago they had great double deck bj games all over town. Today, forget it. They may at Beau Rivage, but if you're good they will politely invite you to play something else after cancelling all your comps. I didn't closely look at their 6:5 games. Double decks are being cut in half. You will need an enormous spread to beat them. Shoe games have at least 2 decks cut off. Good luck making a living playing bj, today, in this town. Its true they don't back that many people off, because they don't see many counters interested in playing their junk any more.

I admire that you were able to spread from $5 to $2000. I would have to agree that would beat a lot of bj games, but you might have to sit around forever waiting to bet the $2000 since high counts don't occur very often with the penetration being offered in Biloxi and elsewhere. And of course, this would take an act and acting as good as some of the famous people one sees playing roles in the movies.

I played at Beau Rivage every day for one year and was never asked to play slots. I would never play a two deck game with one deck cut off, nor would I play a shoe game with 2 decks cut off. When I played there they had good penetration and they had the single deck game at 6:5 with all the cards dealt. I LOVE that game.

louis · 12-14-07, 01:40 AM

Well, I will just say I think single deck games paying 3:2, 6:5, or 1:1 or whatever, where they deal out all the cards and then shuffle the discards are very rare. They were common before basic strategy was determined, and computers were around. I did in fact see one at the Grand in Biloxi, maybe 15 years ago, bj pays 1:1 where they shuffled discards and kept going. I did not want to invest all the time in learning end play with so many other good games around. If you found one of these with bj paying 6:5, great. If you learn all the tables and endplay, of course it is beatable. If Beau Rivage will let you play it with a high average bet, and make a living at it for a year, amazing.

I certainly agree that there are some 6:5 games worth playing, but they seem very rare to me.

gambleballs · 12-14-07, 02:07 AM

Curious,

Just curious as to why you feel the need to make this information public. Before you know it any fool who can cut off 52 cards will be ace steering and your game will vanish. Its happened with every big advantage game I've found. Gone in a month.

curious · 12-14-07, 07:35 AM

Originally posted by gambleballs

Curious,

Just curious as to why you feel the need to make this information public. Before you know it any fool who can cut off 52 cards will be ace steering and your game will vanish. Its happened with every big advantage game I've found. Gone in a month.

The end game information is already public, it is in Thorpe's book beat the dealer. I have met very few people who can shuffle track. It takes a LOT of practice. I have met even fewer who can steer Aces. No "fool" can Ace steer or shuffle track.