Betting question for all SBR posters......................

[Iceman]

Nicky,

Quick question for you. Though i would never do it for a few reasons, you ever think of booking?

Here is my thought and I figured if anyone truly understands this it is you: Your customers are almost like people you hired to bet for you doing what you are doing now, as they are actually taking 10 cents worse on every bet they are making which in turn is giving you +110 on nearly ALL OF YOUR BETS THAT YOU ARE MAKING. You could never duplicate something like that on your own.

You talk about how beating the closing line on 60% of your plays is good well this way would be way higher then that. Plus your hold would be around 4.5% which is way higher then you could also do betting on your own (most likely). Bottom line you don't have to sit there all day screen wacthing, it's almost like you are hiring people to do all your betting for you. Throw in being able to lay off heavy action at Pinny at better prices and wow what a money maker this is. It's no wonder bookies make so much money. It's like what you try to do times 5.

Too good to be true but its a fact. I just don't have it in me to collect, recruit people, chase them around, etc.. Maybe have a few reliable agents underneath you and set it up if they get stiffed their loss but that is still hard to find. You ever think about going this route? Sounds lot easier doesn't it?

[Iceman]

Easier question for most here would be to make it a basketball pontspread instead of a moneyline. Basically you love a game at -6 but you find a +7.5 somehwere else (local bookmaer most likely), would you play the +7.5 knowing you are going against the -6 team that you love?

[WileOut]

How much did they renegotiate your posting contract for Nickay? How much did you get paid before and how much are you paid now?

How do you get a job posting at a sportsbook forum? Connections? Luck? Its one or the other.

[statnerds]

Not if it's early in the day. You take the -105 and if you are right, you watch the line rise after you bet and smile.

excellent point sir.

[playersonly69]

Nicky is not exactly a solid sourse here for the correct answer

[paco]

Beat the closing #

[rm18]

I'll take the play I love at -105, I am confident my strong plays can beat the market

[LT Profits]

Calculate Pinny's no juice number and if you can beat any side you bet it, all those stats and streaks dont mean shit and if they did, Pinny would have factored it into the line...

This is true later in the day, but if this is a good capper and it is early, he can bet the team he loves at -105 and then beat the Pinny closing no-vig line if he is right and price rises.

[rm18]

closing number is not accurate, UNC basketball was -31.5 the first game of the year and they were a bad team. Even if you got Carolina -28.5 your bet still never had a chance.

The line was off approximately 15 points

[bigdog3580]

This is a stupid questions. No team on a 9 game winning streak and is at home with a pitcher who is 8 -0 at home, will be -110 or -105. Be real. Now if that team is on the road, then maybe. Lets get real and quit wasting my time on such nonsense.

[Nicky Santoro]

Calculate Pinny's no juice number and if you can beat any side you bet it, all those stats and streaks dont mean shit and if they did, Pinny would have factored it into the line...

Here was the right answer.. And Iceman and a few others got it right too..

I can't believe how most of you got this one wrong.. boys, IF pinny and CRIS have flat pick ems, why would you not take the +105?? do you think by you loving the game means you know more than them??? come on boys, wake up..

I was more shocked at LT saying how if he feels the right line should be -120, then he'd bet the -105 and ignore the +105.. come on LT, you really think you are ahead of these oddsmakers?? There's so much research put into these lines, by so many people.. why would you know more than 200 people combined that do this for a living??

Boys, if you just bet every edge and never ever bet your own opinions, you will retire.. stats, shmats, streaks, home record, whatever crap you know, is meaningless. it's already applied into the line..

Thank you all for playing along in the Nicky Santoro Betting Game..

[jjgold]

Solid Game Nicky but I agree with LT

We at times are smarter than the linesman

Nicky linesman makes mistakes

[Brock Landers]

here was the right answer.. And iceman and a few others got it right too.. I can't believe how most of you got this one wrong.. Boys, if pinny and cris have flat pick ems, why would you not take the +105?? Do you think by you loving the game means you know more than them??? Come on boys, wake up.. I was more shocked at lt saying how if he feels the right line should be -120, then he'd bet the -105 and ignore the +105.. Come on lt, you really think you are ahead of these oddsmakers?? There's so much research put into these lines, by so many people.. Why would you know more than 200 people combined that do this for a living?? Boys, if you just bet every edge and never ever bet your own opinions, you will retire.. Stats, shmats, streaks, home record, whatever crap you know, is meaningless. It's already applied into the line.. Thank you all for playing along in the nicky santoro betting game..

rubber band play nicky!!

[Nicky Santoro]

brock landers + jjgold = absolutely nuts...

[LT Profits]

Here was the right answer.. And Iceman and a few others got it right too..

I can't believe how most of you got this one wrong.. boys, IF pinny and CRIS have flat pick ems, why would you not take the +105?? do you think by you loving the game means you know more than them??? come on boys, wake up..

I was more shocked at LT saying how if he feels the right line should be -120, then he'd bet the -105 and ignore the +105.. come on LT, you really think you are ahead of these oddsmakers?? There's so much research put into these lines, by so many people.. why would you know more than 200 people combined that do this for a living??

Boys, if you just bet every edge and never ever bet your own opinions, you will retire.. stats, shmats, streaks, home record, whatever crap you know, is meaningless. it's already applied into the line..

Thank you all for playing along in the Nicky Santoro Betting Game..

My response to you is the same as my response to Rich Boy: You guys are only right if it is later in the day closer to game time, because that is when the lines are most efficient. That is also precisely why I bet most of my plays earlier in the day, because if you know what you are doing, that is your best chance to beat the closing price. I took your question per batum without regard to timing, so I stand my response.

[jjgold]

Nicky..........LT Klein is very bright and his numbers are better lots of times than the books.

Brock Landers might be the gambler if the year.


Nicky if your sharp like these two I think your theory does not apply.

[blackbeSSt]

Here was the right answer..why would you not take the +105??

man im glad i got the right answer 18 minutes after you posted and didn't waste my day waiting for a verdict

with all those uber stats to have a game sitting at -110 both ways makes me wonder the stats for the other team . if they are equal to make it a PK, hell yeah i'd go +105

[Rich Boy]

My response to you is the same as my response to Rich Boy: You guys are only right if it is later in the day closer to game time, because that is when the lines are most efficient. That is also precisely why I bet most of my plays earlier in the day, because if you know what you are doing, that is your best chance to beat the closing price. I took your question per batum without regard to timing, so I stand my response.

LT, you are right, I would make the bet as late as possible, but that usually not possible.

If you have a +105 most likely the book will move it, unless its SIA or Bodog.

If you take the +105 you are much more likely to beat the closer than if you took -105, your already ahead of the market with +105, there would have to be a large line movement against you, and on average that wont happen.

[statnerds]

Here is my thought and I figured if anyone truly understands this it is you: Your customers are almost like people you hired to bet for you doing what you are doing now, as they are actually taking 10 cents worse on every bet they are making which in turn is giving you +110 on nearly ALL OF YOUR BETS THAT YOU ARE MAKING. You could never duplicate something like that on your own.

You talk about how beating the closing line on 60% of your plays is good well this way would be way higher then that. Plus your hold would be around 4.5% which is way higher then you could also do betting on your own (most likely). Bottom line you don't have to sit there all day screen wacthing, it's almost like you are hiring people to do all your betting for you. Throw in being able to lay off heavy action at Pinny at better prices and wow what a money maker this is. It's no wonder bookies make so much money. It's like what you try to do times 5.

Too good to be true but its a fact. I just don't have it in me to collect, recruit people, chase them around, etc.. Maybe have a few reliable agents underneath you and set it up if they get stiffed their loss but that is still hard to find. You ever think about going this route? Sounds lot easier doesn't it?

same reasons i never attempted it. i am not a violent man and would hate the hassle of weekly meetings.

other than that, SHARP

man i took a beating on this site when i mentioned the long term prospects of gambling when the house edge is over 4% on the standard -110 line. these guys went nuts. i was called just about every name in the book. reality tends to set some people off on SBR.

Nicky - nice job on this thread. sharp as well. i'm going to start tracking your posts every day. for your next thread i would like to see you somehow relate the Monty Hall Paradox into a sports betting question, which this is kind of like, but not really.

like the overall drift of this thread being a change in my thinking. that is Furious Styles deep right there.

[THE PROFIT]

So quit cappin' these fukin games & just bet the edge??? Sounds too easy! If that was the case we would all be rich

[richyrich8478]

def the pitcher thats red hot....never a guarantee but def get high percentage of wins if you can get more games like that

[brxbmbers42]

Boys,. I am curious to see what kinda bettors we have here at SBR..


There is a game that you absolutely love... and i mean.... looooooooove.. the team is at home, they are 54-22 at home, pitcher is 8-0 with 1.34 era at home.. they are on an 9 game winning streak.. it's a day game and they are 23-5 in day games, and 200 other reasons why you love it..... So basically, you loooooooooooooooove this game sooooooooo much.. so much that you never loved a game this much in your life....

The line is -110/-110 at every book offshore.. and -105/-105 everywhere else.. It's a pick em....


You then find a book that has +105 on the team you don't like at all.. What do you do???


Do you take -110 on the fav you like??? OR do you take +105 on the side you don't like at all..??..


Who do you take????

-110 on the team i like. there is a time for value bets. that's not the situation. thursday night after round one of the british open. osthuzen or however you spell his name was one shot off the lead and 30 to 1 to win the tournament on updated odds after round one. i didnt think he had a shot but i was going to throw a hundy on it just for kicks. thats a value bet.

[Rich Boy]

So quit cappin' these fukin games & just bet the edge??? Sounds too easy! If that was the case we would all be rich

The hard part is finding edges, you can always get edges at square books like SIA or Bodog, but they will boot you once you take them for a couple grand.

[Masu485]

We all know what ends up happening. Squares bet on the team that's on fire thinking it's a lock. Squares who think they are sharps bet the other side by convincing themselves Vegas knows something, or they pull up some obscure stat to justify the line. So both sides get relatively even action, the team that's on fire wins, and Vegas makes their money on the juice.

[mathdotcom]

Don't look at it as "loving" a game and look at it as setting a fair line of -120 on the home team.

Then the answer is easy, as you point out somewhere else in the thread.

[Extra Innings]

Bang the other team at +105

[jjgold]

Nicky real handicappers actually do not even look at the line and trust their own numbers

You will never talk a guy off a game like LT or Brock landers know matter what the line is.

[Brock Landers]

Nicky real handicappers actually do not even look at the line and trust their own numbers You will never talk a guy off a game like LT or Brock landers know matter what the line is.

couldn't have said it any better...exactly

[Nicky Santoro]

Nicky real handicappers actually do not even look at the line and trust their own numbers

You will never talk a guy off a game like LT or Brock landers know matter what the line is.

very true.. we all know these guys that say.. are you crazy not to take the NYY at -230.. they are going to win 100%.. why you taking CLE???

ummmmmmmmmmm, because i got +245, that's why.. yeah but you're just throwing money away, they will NEVER win..

and then NYY win 5-2 and they always say after the game.. you see, if you'd listen to me, you would have won... i told you CLE had no chance.. next time listen to me.

gee thanks tony..

i always have these same conversations on the phone with my square friends everyday. They don't care if i find them a +400 instead of +230.. they will NOT bet against the NYY..

[jjgold]

Nicky if Brock Landers likes Yanks at -187 vs Cleve (+177) at his book he bets at and another book has Cleve at +200

Brock do not give a fuk and taking fukkin Yanks no matter what

[BeeMore]

Nicky you going to give me credit for the correct answer????????????

[Nicky Santoro]

Nicky you going to give me credit for the correct answer????????????

yeah......................... a kick in the ass...........

[Extra Innings]

Nicky if Brock Landers likes Yanks at -187 vs Cleve (+177) at his book he bets at and another book has Cleve at +200

Brock do not give a fuk and taking fukkin Yanks no matter what

I would bet NYY -187 for the max and then risk that (to win) value on Cleveland @ +200