Santa Claus Rally - any buyers out there?

[SBR_John]

I have traded this period for at least 20 years. This year I think I'm going to wait a few days. SPY options is the play and december is a long option month.

As we speak futures are flat, down a little but still above fair value so I would expect the santa claus rally period to start out even. Jan oil is down a buck likely on profit taking.

Players? Ideas?

[HedgeHog]

Years ago, I gave up trying to time the markets' ups and downs? Just buy and hold for me. I am concerned about a recession in '08.

[RageWizard]

I have been playing the market now for about 5 years. I was short the dow since about half way through Sept. I just covered my short positions in the last week, because of the expected, and totally crazy rate cut that the fed is all but yelling about. I think that there will be a christmas rally in the next month, but probably not a good one that you can say wow time get in for the ride up. This may the the bulls last chance before 4th quarter earnings signal a CRASH or at least a recession for the markets.
I think the fed is crazy, the market has had to much liquidity, so when the market decides to correct itself, the fed adds a mechanism for more liquidity. Eventually this will catch up and the piper has to be paid.

[milwaukee mike]

ragewizard, you are on the right track there.
unfortunately for the scam of interest/inflation that the federal reserve has been pushing for decades to keep working, the money supply has to continue to rise. and all that "new money" has to create bubbles - aka dot com bubble, housing bubble, siv/cdo/off-balance sheet bubbles, etc.
now there are a couple trillion sitting in money markets waiting while the true "value" of the dollar continues to erode.

and the banks/brokers keep looking for a new scam to get some "earnings" - the truth is that the writedowns of the past year or so going into next year is more than the combined earnings for companies like c and mer over the last 5 years.

as for the santa claus rally, it might happen but last week was probably a bigger rally than you'll see the rest of the month...

[milwaukee mike]

here's another small part of the banking scam that not many people realize...

who do you think is responsible for payment of u.s. paper money? it's not the treasury...
just look at any paper money in your wallet - FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE.
private corporation that trades dollars to the treasury in exchange for u.s. treasury debt. so we're paying 1/2 of our tax dollars for interest and war to these criminals at the fed.

that obviously can't continue forever.

[milwaukee mike]

individual stock picks right now i like:

meca 1.41
brlc 2.90
mpel 13.98
jrn 8.89

reits:
olp 20.28
afn 3.64
maa 46.73

[SBR_John]

For day trading I think MO will give back a $1+ over the next day or two. SAP is a + mover here.

[ShamsWoof10]

I think MMike knows what's he talking about actually...

I am with John on this one however and feel there is certainly going to be a run up in December that should get close to 14K... This is the index I am talking about but some stocks may get hit... I would play the index as opposed to ind. stocks on this one because I feel strongly that the index is going higher but not sure which stocks will drive it higher...

By the way HHog it's my opinion that we are in one now and by the time they admit it we may be coming out of it or going into a depression... We'll see....

There is a rumor that the IRS may have to delay the filing date (THEIR filling date Jan. 14) which may result in a delay in Tax returns by a few months... LOL the IRS is pulling a Sportsbook.com You'll get it but it's going to be a bit...

[HedgeHog]

Shams:

Agree about the current recession scenario; stock markets should confirm this in '08. Dow 10,000 may be re-visited.

[robzilla]

Short sell Blockbuster Video.
that whole movie renting industry is gonna take a big hit this year.

[ShamsWoof10]

Shams:

Agree about the current recession scenario; stock markets should confirm this in '08. Dow 10,000 may be re-visited.

What's up HHog... Sorry my mailbox was full I think it was you or someone that tried to PM me... I am too lazy to delete some of them... I"ll get to it sooner or later...

Anyway... I think this is going to be an odd situation... We will continue the recession BUT the indexes will still go higher.. For all of you trend followers ..this is exactly what's happen this decade and I think it will continue... Higher markets and shi*ter economy with "MONETARY" inflation...

The economy is deflating without a doubt but the money supply is inflating...

[Cyclone]

Here is an interesting article concerning how margin debt is at very high levels, and what that might mean for the stock market. It has lots of graphs, so I didn't want to post the whole article here.

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm