Tips on Capping the NBA

[fabric86]

what are your tips? Thanks.

[isetcap]

always take detroit and the over

[Illusion]

No kidding, Detroit has been a covering machine.

[bigboydan]

don't bet against detriot

on a serious note though:

stats, scheduals, trends,hot/cold players, and the rest of the usual type stuff.

[bookie]

fabric86...covers.com has the best past performance material on the net...I also have learned a lot from reading the NBA write-ups of Dave Malinsky at coversexperts.com...if you follow the sport and like to bet than you probably "get a feeling" sometimes, and my tip would be to get the feeling into words and when you're way wrong get the reason why into words also and try to get a better and better feel.

If you're just starting out I'd also stay away from favorites because it's easier to get a feel that the Pistons are going to cover...just part of psychology that one is drawn to past success and will over-expect it to continue. Long term there's not an anti-favorite bias in the NBA regular season because it's not a League that recreational bettors pour a lot of money into, but starting out you're better off looking at dogs cause that will force you to work harder.

If you're serious you'll track ATS results by home and away as well as by half. You'll also write down every bet so you can study how your own mind works long term.

I post a pick with reasons in the hoops forum most days and I invite you to look at it...not to play my plays, necessarily...but to see how someone who follows the sport handicaps it.

[Winston Smith]

I tend to find a trend and stick with it. For instance, Toronto is one of the best bets on the road this season. Detroit always covers and plays over at home. Charlotte is 15-4 against their own conference. Things like that.

I also look for teams that are overvalued and play against them. Chicago has been my favorite for that this year. They've lost about 9 in a row, yet keep getting placed as favorites. Denver's another one of those.

I also look to play against a fading team before the lines reflect reality. The Clippers are a good example. Whether or not the crash completely, I don't know, but they're everyone's favorite little-engine-that-could story this year, so the lines don't always reflect how they've struggled in recent weeks.


Also, overall, I only look at dogs.

[freebie]

very good stuff you, Winston. I like the writeup.

[Brooks]

the only tip i can give you is dont do it.

if you have a decent bankroll look for opportunities like last nite where you could have taken houston moneyline +286 for a few thousand and then taken cleveland -260 to win a few thousand and enjoy the game with friends, drinks and the knowledge that you cant lose any money.

if you wanted to start capping basketball start with a conference your most familiar with in college basketball and you might have a chance.

if you just wanted to pick a side in NBA find a site that post JB's plays and put a few hundred on each one. he is about as close to a 55% capper that ive ever seen.

im actually surprised that people that have found sites like SBR, the prescription, major wager, EOG and a few others still actually gamble.

its a losing proposition and watching the bowl games over the last few weeks shows us how no lead is safe and the numbers are about a 50% proposition, no matter how you want to spin it.

the only people getting rich the last few years have been sportsbooks and sites just like SBR.

i actually just read your post again my friend and im sorry i got off topic but questions like you posed are just beyond my comprehension; you honestly believe that you can cap an NBA game when every ounce of information is already built into the line and its a statistical fact that the closing number is a 50% proposition, along with the fact that 50% of the games will be decided by pure luck.

im sorry, i know you wanted some info on how to cap the nba but i really cant help you with that

GL with your endeavor

[pags11]

my tip is not to bet the NBA period...

[darkghost]

I admit the NBA is tough but the good thing is with so many books offering reduced vig and sites that are off by a 1/2 pt to a pt or giving away 1/2 pts (ie Skybook), you can basically wager on games juice free, so always line shop.

The biggest factor for me in handicapping NBA games is a team's travel schedule, for instance teams that are on a long road trip. Bet against these teams near the end of their road trip & especially when playing back to back games. Also fade teams that have played double/triple OTs games when they have to play again the next night with travel.

My play today was on the Lakers. Philly's playing their 6th or 7th West Coast road game and look for them to put out a weak effort especially in the 2nd half. Plus, Kobe being back doesn't hurt either!