Originally posted by greeksportspicks
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Handicappers digest says these guys are on a 1- 20 run
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Absurd man, -150 does have higher chance to win IMHO. I runing Demo forOriginally posted by Sawyer
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
Odds daily.. Account with 1.5-1.59 odds (-200 -170) wins the most. Other thought.. You cannot win
betting Money line on those. Period..
for I loss you will need 2+ wins to just cover you loss. I'm betting Run line only
with 1.9 2.4 odds, my 1 win cover loss and some more.. That's why I only need to be
little over 50% which is possible, with you Money line betting, you will have to win
75% + betting on favorites. Odds somewhat could be overvalued like for NYY for example,
but in long run it worth it. Hey, but everyone should have their own technique, whatever
floats the boat.Comment -
I don't say -150 doesn't have a higher chance to win, Of course 1.50 will win more often then 1.90. I say it won't give a better return
We're thinking same way. Very hard to make profit on the long run with these short odds. It's much better to stick with -110, -120 or better. -130 maybe in special cases. But I won't risk 120 to win 100, or 110 to win 100. I risk 100 to win 91 or risk 100 to win 83. There isn't a dramatical difference between -120 and -110.Comment -
"We're thinking same way. Very hard to make profit on the long run with these short odds."
Exactly, then when someone puts down MBL record like 23-12
If betting money line on favorites this
could mean break even or very little profit.. I'll take my chances and will bet on Run line only.
I can deal with 1.9-2.2 Odds that way my chances are at least 50/50. And I absolutely agree with your
betting strategy.. Same amount of $ placed on every bet, making sence for sure.
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Some people place less stake if odds are +120. Of course, I'm not gonna bet flat on a -110 and +500 but there isn't a dramatical difference between +120 and +100 imo, at least for me. Sometimes, it's +130 according to Vegas but it may be +100 (Even) bet for me. Therefore, I pull the trigger if it's a value bet.
American Sports are crazy. Anything can happen. Remember Phillies game last night. I won't be surprised if Twins win today either. Avoid heavy chalk, if you're in love with a chalk favourite, reduce your stake or use 2-game parlay. I'm not a big fan of parlays but 2-Game parlays can be very handy in baseball.
Happy Fathers Day everyone!Comment -
i agree with sawyerComment -
i agree with sawyer alsoComment -
sawyer is absurd. as his example states -150 will lose as often as +100 wins.
if you want value on your wagers you will bet to win on favorites and risk on underdawgs.
As long as all your bets are +EV you will make more money betting to win on favorites. I agree with you that rarely should you lay more than -130 and this is true.
Only recreational bettors that bet -ev events all the time can find success LOSING LESS using your theory. But for people who are in it to make money you example is lunacy.Comment -
No. I don't say -150 will lose as often as +100. Read again. (You should avoid heavy chalk in baseball)
I just say you should not bet more because it's -300. You know Texas got swept at home by Orioles last week? And they were -300, -280, -400 favourites in these games. Some people understand it, some people didn't. Everybody has a different strategy/style. If you like to wager 180 because it's -180, then good luck. I will lay 180 if only I have a good reason, not because it's -180.Comment -
I think everyone will have a damn good reason for betting 180 to win 100, heck they must since they need to win it 65% of the time to make a profit. People how have made say 100 bets with this chalk should know what side their on and if not they probably shouldn't bet itComment -
Two camps:
Camp A: bets to-win and lay the chalk cause they know they win more often at -180 as for -120 = more profit longterm
Camp B: bets to risk cause they want the same amount risked at -120 and -180 = lower risk but also less profit longtermComment -
Of course you should risk more on more probable outcomes. Given the same edge, betting heavy chalk beats -110 lines, each and every time. It's harder to find +EV heavy favorites, but when you do, you should always prefer them over even lines. I will always take +1.5 or +2.5 basebal lines over ml if close enough same +EV. It'll increase your Expected growth and reduce bankroll volatility. +EG > +EVComment -
Heres the million dollar question: People bet bigger on bigger favs (chalk) cause they win more frequent longterm, so why do they stop this mentality when dealing with dogs.. This is imo mathematically wrong, but mentally when there is no chalk why lower your bet...
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You should always bet to win whatever your edge is on a game is regardless of price. Thus, if you have a +150 and a -160 with the same edge, not only is it natural to bet more on the favorite, but it is also mathematically correct.Originally posted by SolidDalaHeres the million dollar question: People bet bigger on bigger favs (chalk) cause they win more frequent longterm, so why do they stop this mentality when dealing with dogs.. This is imo mathematically wrong, but mentally when there is no chalk why lower your bet...Comment -
It's all about the +EV, but 90% of the time it's good idea to bet less on dogs. The higher the dog, the lower the stake, unless it's mispriced and huge value opportunity.Originally posted by SolidDalaHeres the million dollar question: People bet bigger on bigger favs (chalk) cause they win more frequent longterm, so why do they stop this mentality when dealing with dogs.. This is imo mathematically wrong, but mentally when there is no chalk why lower your bet...Comment -
Absolutely agree! Just thought it to be a bit comical that majority here bet to-win on favs but stop this and bet risk on dogs...Originally posted by LT ProfitsComment -
But then again I have been spending a lot of time in the handicap zone as for the TT sectionComment -
Those who really believe in betting more on the fave re their edge calc are setting themselves up for a huge fall.
You NEVER know your edge. It is ALWAYS a guess. After you go through sportsbetting puberty, you know that.
And with that in mind, if you don't make some adjustments when betting on big faves, you're risking over-risking. The bigger the fave, the more delicate the edge calc, meaning, the greater the penalty for even a minor error in calculation. Edge calc errors are proportionately magnified on faves.
I bet more on faves, too. I just don't think "oh, yay, I have a .99% edge on a 100-1 fave, let me bet nearly my whole BR."
People who don't even think about the math in this biz are below those who do, but those who think "I'm using numbers, therefore I'm precise!" are only a step behind in the race to the poorhouse.
Applying the philosophy of the math is more important than applying the formulas.Comment -
Sawyer,
If at the end of the day, flat betting has been working well for you, producing the profit that you are looking for, then by all means, continue to stick with it bro. There is no need to change anything in your betting strategy if this strategy is accomplishing for you the daily/weekly/monthly/yearly profit goals.
Best of luck!
netinfoComment -
Yes, you are correct that there's more margin for error in estimating edge for higher faves. There are still very good reasons to play even very high lines, when there's value on them. Estimates are just rough approximations, so full kelly is too heavy for me. Quarter kelly is as high as I'm willing to go. Everyone has to find their comfort zone with bankroll management.Originally posted by PokerjoeComment -
Originally posted by juuso
I agree. That's all I'm saying: the higher the fave, the more delicate the edge calc.
I bet more on faves, too. But I recognize this truth about edge calcs: as you vary from 50/50 propositions, the propensity for error, and the penalty for error, increases proportionately.
And, BTW, about 1/4 Kelly, or 1/2 Kelly, or any other Kelly: it's a number guessed at. You're guessing when you choose 1/4 Kelly, or .827 Kelly, or even full Kelly.
Amazes me that people who use Kelly aren't aware that they are STILL pulling numbers out of their ass. I mean, they really, really don't know it. They think "I'm using Kelly, I'm precise!"
Kind of like people using the 1/2 point calulator here and thinking they're being precise. They'll use it out to the fourth decimal place and think they're REALLY being precise.
All the while not understanding that the 1/2 point calculator is just an educated guess. That's fine, that's what this game is all about, and the better your guesses, your approximations, the more success you'll have. Just, understand that.Comment -
Often time there is a very close game where I'll have teams pegged at even with both very good pitchers and pens. But I'll have 7 minor edges on team A and maybe 1 minor edge on team B. Then, when I look at the money line, I'll see that team A pays 2.15! Meanwhile I have them handicapped the favorite. Yes. I take the ML then. Even if it's 1.81, STILL I'd be wrong to take the +/- because I know it's going to be a tight game.
Runline has it's place. Moneyline has it's place. It is truly like shopping for a bargain. Sometimes you get deals at JC Penny, sometimes you get them at Target.Comment -
Originally posted by Pokerjoe
Kelly is just a tool and like any other tool, in the wrong hands or used incorrectly, it can be dangerous. Here's what I have learned from and how I use Kelly.
First, if you cannot prove to yourself that your wagers can produce a flat bet profit, then you cannot use Kelly. The simple fact is, without an edge, the Kelly wager is $0.
Second, assuming you know your edge, Kelly calculates for you the maximum you can wager. If you wager more than Kelly (assuming you have an accurate gauge of your edge), you will actually make less money and if you are wagering too much more than Kelly, you will more than likely go bankrupt if you persist.
Most of my wagers usually involve some type of hedge and as such, it is relatively easy for me to calculate my edge. No, it is not perfect all the time but this is one of the reasons that I use half-Kelly. The danger in using Kelly (assuming you have an edge) is overbetting. By using half Kelly I can over-estimate my edge by double and still not overbet though frankly my estimates are never off by anywhere near that much.
Another reason that I use half-Kelly is to temper the volatility of increases and decreases of bankroll that Kelly can produce. Half-Kelly produces 75% of the growth rate of Kelly while reducing the risk significantly of reducing your bankroll in half.
I also use Kelly to help me determine which strategies and or set-ups to use when wagering by comparing the size of the Kelly calculations. So even if you calculate that you have a significant edge, it may not be worth wagering on it because the odds are too long which results in a very small Kelly wager. You will find that you are much better off wagering on something that has a smaller edge but that wins more consistently.
I'll stop here but realize there is much more to this and one needs to investigate and experiment more in order to really understand the benefits of calculating Kelly.
Joe.Comment -
I've been watching and reading this thread with interest.This is the stuff that is why I come to this site. Thanks for all the great input.Comment -
I parlay favs instead of laying juiceComment -
Keep in mind that if the favorites are not +EV independently, then parlaying them will not help you.Originally posted by KshermComment -
Originally posted by u21c3f6
Kelly is just a tool and like any other tool, in the wrong hands or used incorrectly, it can be dangerous. Here's what I have learned from and how I use Kelly.
First, if you cannot prove to yourself that your wagers can produce a flat bet profit, then you cannot use Kelly. The simple fact is, without an edge, the Kelly wager is $0.
Second, assuming you know your edge, Kelly calculates for you the maximum you can wager. If you wager more than Kelly (assuming you have an accurate gauge of your edge), you will actually make less money and if you are wagering too much more than Kelly, you will more than likely go bankrupt if you persist.
Most of my wagers usually involve some type of hedge and as such, it is relatively easy for me to calculate my edge. No, it is not perfect all the time but this is one of the reasons that I use half-Kelly. The danger in using Kelly (assuming you have an edge) is overbetting. By using half Kelly I can over-estimate my edge by double and still not overbet though frankly my estimates are never off by anywhere near that much.
Another reason that I use half-Kelly is to temper the volatility of increases and decreases of bankroll that Kelly can produce. Half-Kelly produces 75% of the growth rate of Kelly while reducing the risk significantly of reducing your bankroll in half.
I also use Kelly to help me determine which strategies and or set-ups to use when wagering by comparing the size of the Kelly calculations. So even if you calculate that you have a significant edge, it may not be worth wagering on it because the odds are too long which results in a very small Kelly wager. You will find that you are much better off wagering on something that has a smaller edge but that wins more consistently.
I'll stop here but realize there is much more to this and one needs to investigate and experiment more in order to really understand the benefits of calculating Kelly.
Joe.
Good post. But am I nagging at you if I ask why .5 Kelly instead of .49 Kelly or .51 Kelly? My point being that .5 Kelly is still just a guess, on your point. I wouldn't actually be so cruel as to say it's a number pulled out of your ass, I'd say it's a number pulled out of your experience, your emotions, your "risk aversity" level (mine is low, btw, obv). But it's still a guessed at number, and therefore all numbers derived from it are guessed at.
As with the 1/2 point calculator. It entails guessing at which years should be included in the DB, and guessing at how smoothed (by including neighboring numbers) the results range should be. It's a guessed at product, and all bets derived from the 1/2 point calculator are therefore also guessed at.
And I'm not even knocking guessing! This game is about who makes the best guesses. Best guesses come from work, research, knowledge and, often, are derived from guessed at quantifications, guessed at formula inputs.
The most important thing about Kelly is it's underlying philosophy: bet too much, and even a series of +EV wagers will lead to ruin; bet too little and you're leaving a lot of money on the table. Truly understanding the philosophy will help any player, including those who don't know how to open a spreadsheet.
Same with EV, EG, Bayes and other theories. Understanding the philosophy behind them is much, much more important than applying the formulas (which is the easy part, so easy it's trivial).Comment -
You are correct, I have "settled" on half-Kelly due to my experience and risk aversity level. I had started out many years ago using full-Kelly but I did not like the wilder swings of bankroll that it produced. Of course looking at my data I realized that I in fact left money on the table because I was not using full-Kelly and I tried to go back to full-Kelly several times. But each time I tried full-Kelly, I did not like what it did to me psychologically and went back to half-Kelly which fits my personality and risk tolerance. I rationalized it like this: Once I double my bankroll, I would essentially be making what would have been a full-Kelly wager on my original bankroll only with greater safety. This rationalization allows me not to worry about leaving money on the table. It is much better to leave money on the table than to risk going bankrupt. An additional benefit of half-Kelly is that it allows me to not worry about "knowing" my exact edge and therefore reduces the chance of my overbetting.Originally posted by Pokerjoe
The important thing about Kelly, as you point out, is it defines the max wager. This is extremely important because again as you point out, even if you have an edge, you can go bankrupt if you wager greater than full-Kelly.
Now, let's assume Kelly didn't exist, how would one go about determining what % of their bankroll to wager or at the least, how much is too much? One would either have to do guesstimate through trial and error or actually come up with Kelly. Thankfully Kelly already exists and as long as you have decent inputs, you can determine your max wager. How much you bet up to that max wager will be determined by your personal risk tolerance.
Joe.Comment -
Pokerjoe, I don't know why you insist kelly fraction being pulled out of ones ass. If a bettor can estimate their edge reasonably close, they'll decrease bankroll volatility and make a little more money by betting any denomination of Kelly, than they would flat betting their average Kelly stake. That is pretty much given. Full kelly has reasonably high risk of ruin, so it would be wise for regular sports investor to adjust their staking to something like 1/3, 1/4 or even 1/8 Kelly. On average close to what you would be comfortable betting flat.Comment -
Kelly is made for large corperations. If your a small time GAMBLER like me, screw kelly. Same thing go's with btcl. I'M HERE TO MAKE MONEY NOW!!!
Apparently, everone has a $100,000 bankroll in this forum. Now what do we do with the people that bet $100-200 per game? Bet 2% of my bankroll so I can make 10$ per day. We should start a topic on people with money vs. those that have hardly any. How do you small time gamblers cope? I read a lot about money management, however if you don't have money, then you can't manage.
For you small timers like me, go for the gusto!!!Comment -
Like most recreational bettors, There's absolutley nothing wrong in ignoring conservative money management discipline.You can't become rich with less than 1000 bankroll, unless you take risks and get very lucky.Either run your balance up or bust it out. You can revisited Kelly or other staking methods, when/if you've gotten a sizeble bankroll and ready to treat sports as an investment.Originally posted by the shadowComment -
Thank you juuso, very well put!Comment -
Money is not the issue!Originally posted by the shadow
Having an edge is the issue. If you have an edge, you can make the money. When you have an edge, Kelly is the "compound interest" way of managing your bankroll.
Joe.Comment
