Breeders' Cup Picks - & Horses for Mud and Monmouth

[ritehook]

Yesterday featured the first three (and new) races that were added this year to the BC menu. I had six plays and won only won, a non BC race at Monmouth. Paid $12.80, and with a much lighter amount bet on an exacta box about broke even for the day.

Today hopefully more gainful.

The handful of scracthes reported from Monmouth on another rainy day did not affect my selections. I suspect there may be a few more scratches as the day wears on. But the purses are huge, so many horsemen may just say, what the hell, let's go for it.

The feature race, the Classic, has a purse of five million dollars. Incredible. For a horse race!!

When I have two selections in the same race my practice is to bet both to win, and then put a much smaller amount in an exacta box.

After the selections I'll list the Horses for Courses and Horses Proven on an Off-Track, for those who like to make their own picks but are not equine handicappers.

The first 3 races at Monmouth are stakes races, but not part of the BC program. I have picks in all three.

1 - #5 Now a Victor 5-1 ML
# 7 Bwana Bull 2-1

2 - #6 Sindy With an S 7-2

3 - #9 Silver Bounce 10-1
# 10 EZ Warrior 4-1

4 - [Juvenile Filly]
# 3 Tasha's Miracle 10-1
# 9 Smarty Deb 30-1

5 - [Juvenile] Tale of Ekati looks like it will end up as the strong fave,and to have any long-term chance in this insider's game you have to get value. So I'll put the horse on top in 3 straight exactas:
# 10 Tale of Ekati 7-2
and #2 War Pass - # 3 Kodiak Kowboy - # Wicked Style
(If Tale should go off at 3-1 or higher, I'll also bet it straight to win)

6- [Filly & Mare Turf] Pass

7 - [Sprint]
# 1 Smokey Stover 7-2
# 6 Commentator 12-1

8 - [Mile]
#8 Kip Deville 6-1
# 14 Remarkable News 12-1

9 -[Distaff]
# 5 Lady Joanne

10 [Turf] Pass

11 - [Classic - the Biggie]
# 2 Street Sense (Track conditions being what the are today, Lawyer Ron also looks solid here)

Over at Laurel, in the 7th, I'll put a few bob on # 13 Seaclipseofthemoon (or something like that). A class-drop play, they're either trying to get rid of a cripple, or going for a purse.

Let me get some coffee and I'll be back with Horses for Courses and Horses for Mud

[swifty]

Good Luck today wish I can get out and bet on some of your picks......

[ritehook]

Shoot, all I had was soy milk for the coffee. Not quite the same taste as the stuff from Mrs Cow.

Here are two lists of horses running today in the BC races that may have an edge, either because they like this particular track, or they are proven in the mud.

It for those who like to pick their own but have not the time or patience to scan the fine print in the PPs. Or those who like to go for the huge payday by betting multiple horse exotics.

Horses for an Off Track: the following are horse entered today that have done well on an off-track (dirt) - at least 50% wins, or 67% in the money. And also that they appear to possess enough class to handle the tough competition

PROVEN ON OFF TRACKS
5- # 2 War Pass

7 - #1 Smokey Stover
# 5 - Kelly's Landing
# 6 - Commentor
# 11 - Forefathers

9 - # 1 Balance
# 4 Ginger Catch
# 12 Hystericalady

11 - #1 Lawyer Ron
# 8 Hard Spun

HORSES FOR COURSES (MONMOUTH)
Following is a list of BC entries today that have won or placed at least once in a race at Monmouth Park:

6 - #2 Honey Ryder

7 - #1 Smokey Stover
# 4 Talent Search
# 7 Idiot Proof

8 - # 2 Icy Atlantic
# 4 Host

9 - #2 Prop Me Up
# 10 Indian Vale
# 12 Hystericalady

10 - #3 Better Talk Now
# 6 English Channel

11- #1 Lawyer Ron
#3 Any Given Saturday
# 8 Hard Spun

Great Luck to eveyone, in horses, foots, bases, whatever you play

[ritehook]

Let me also add that while I egotistically like to post my horse picks on the main board on big racing days (Ky Derby and BC only), there are some great 'cappers over in the Horse Racing board who will give you their valuable insights on todays races at the Jersey shore (you gonna be there, Coach? I heard it's a helluva tough ticket, Monmouth not being a huge track)

[ritehook]

Relatives who live near there tell me it's fifty bucks just to get in - no seat, you just mill around in the rain. People are crazy.

[BigBollocks]

Thanks for your write-ups, it's nice to see someone factoring in the rain like you are. How big of a factor do you place on wet Tomlinson ratings ritehook?

I had NowNowNow yesterday, and needless to say that helped transform a mediocre day into an excellent one. I knew Discreet Cat going off at 7-5 was absurd, but just couldn't find the horse to beat him.

GL today, lets hit 'em a lick...

[ritehook]

Thanks for your write-ups, it's nice to see someone factoring in the rain like you are. How big of a factor do you place on wet Tomlinson ratings ritehook?

I had NowNowNow yesterday, and needless to say that helped transform a mediocre day into an excellent one. I knew Discreet Cat going off at 7-5 was absurd, but just couldn't find the horse to beat him.

GL today, lets hit 'em a lick...

.
Tomlinson is a must for the regular and hardnoses horseplayer.

I lost my copy some years ago (lent it out and of course never returned). I may get a recent edition, they need to be updated.

If I were really going to try to win by betting horses, tho, I'd put away the Form, and the PPs, and go strictly by "following the money."

IE, by closely scanning the tote on every race, looking for a certain pattern. I actually published an article on how to do this a few year's ago in a men's magazine, and on my rare visits to a simulcast center it seems still valid.

So, if I actually had to make a living betting the beetles, this ultimate insider's game, corrupt to the core (better in Europe which bans all race day meds) I'd study the tote like a gypsy reads tea leaves.

To do it right, tho, you'd have to have the tote you can get on your screen at either the DRF or Brisnet, and have at least two computers in front of you, preferably three. One to bet at your book (calling in takes too much time,most of your action will be near Posttime) and the other two to scan the tote at two tracks (more than two doesn't seem feasible)

It's not the old, ineffective, watch for late bet downs. More sophisticated, and you have to be able to do some fast (but simple) mathematical calculations. Win betting only, never at less than 7-2.

I won't do it, tho. At least not now. You really have to sit in front of the computers all day, just like the scalpers and middlers. Man, talk about not having a life! But i don't want to give it out gratis either, too many playing it destroys value if I ever did want to get back to it

Nice pick on NowNowNow. He was on my radar but just missed the cut.

[ritehook]

"a few years ago . . ." Yeah, like the 1980s!! Tempus fugit. It sure has hell does.

[BigBollocks]

.
Tomlinson is a must for the regular and hardnoses horseplayer.

I lost my copy some years ago (lent it out and of course never returned). I may get a recent edition, they need to be updated.

If I were really going to try to win by betting horses, tho, I'd put away the Form, and the PPs, and go strictly by "following the money."

IE, by closely scanning the tote on every race, looking for a certain pattern. I actually published an article on how to do this a few year's ago in a men's magazine, and on my rare visits to a simulcast center it seems still valid.

So, if I actually had to make a living betting the beetles, this ultimate insider's game, corrupt to the core (better in Europe which bans all race day meds) I'd study the tote like a gypsy reads tea leaves.

To do it right, tho, you'd have to have the tote you can get on your screen at either the DRF or Brisnet, and have at least two computers in front of you, preferably three. One to bet at your book (calling in takes too much time,most of your action will be near Posttime) and the other two to scan the tote at two tracks (more than two doesn't seem feasible)

It's not the old, ineffective, watch for late bet downs. More sophisticated, and you have to be able to do some fast (but simple) mathematical calculations. Win betting only, never at less than 7-2.

I won't do it, tho. At least not now. You really have to sit in front of the computers all day, just like the scalpers and middlers. Man, talk about not having a life! But i don't want to give it out gratis either, too many playing it destroys value if I ever did want to get back to it

Nice pick on NowNowNow. He was on my radar but just missed the cut.

I'd love to hear more on what you're discussing, or if you have a link to the article would obviously like to read it. On the big races I think it all comes down to race breakdowns and value. However, on the smaller races (which make up the vast majority), I think there's a lot of validity to what you're saying. I'm not sure if you follow early money (often stable $$$) or late money more, but there's no doubt insider information on these small races at the small tracks that can be often ascertained. G today....

[ritehook]

I'd love to hear more on what you're discussing, or if you have a link to the article would obviously like to read it. On the big races I think it all comes down to race breakdowns and value. However, on the smaller races (which make up the vast majority), I think there's a lot of validity to what you're saying. I'm not sure if you follow early money (often stable $$$) or late money more, but there's no doubt insider information on these small races at the small tracks that can be often ascertained. G today....

Agree. Tote watching is best on claiming races and maidens (they say the condition of the latter, esp first time starters, is no one's business but the trainers.) I've seen it work on good quality allowance events and small stakes at major plants tho.

You follow both early and late money. Some of these guys bet early, others bet late. Actually, even the ones who bet early bet late, so I almost always will wait till close to post, unless I know the stable puts the money in early or midway.

One of the old tricks that the betting stables use is to bet early, esp on a maiden, to knock the odds down. Then, at the betting progresses, the odds slowly rise again,and the public gets off. Then, near post, the stable money comes charging in again, and the horse often wins.

They guys view the public as a necessary evil - just bring your money, bozos.

The story was pubbed in a magazine for a mostly black audience, mid or early 80s I think. Lots of nude black chicks. They liked it so much they asked me for another one, but I never got around to doing it. It's not a mag that's online; I got a copy around here somewhere, if I ever dig it up I'll post the title and date for any who may be interested - a copy for sale will likely eventually show up on ebay, everything else does.

I developed the method from an idea I picked up from Robert Rowe, in an old issue of American Turf Monthly. I mean, like old, when Tricky Dick was president!

Someday I'm gonna make the time to try it at home, online with the live totes. Have to be with a book that closes only at the official "off time", not the listed post time, and sure as hell not "two mintues before post," as some of them insist.