[mcaulay777]

Wow this Pittsburg Team is bad im way off on this one.Im out of this game,Its is a very tuff watch!

[KVB]

Wow this Pittsburg Team is bad im way off on this one.Im out of this game,Its is a very tuff watch!

Yeah, I think it is going to be ugly for Pitt backers.

I'm seeing them here on 3rd and 27 and they resort to a draw.

Just tough all day for them. That's the feel I get.

[KVB]

Oh shit, Pitt bringing in a 2018 NFL 4th rounder.

A ringer? Can he turn the culture of Pitt around? Can he get pizza for everybody?

[KVB]

I mentioned that more and more bettors, different types of bettors, will enter the market as the season progresses. I mention that in the market video.

We are getting more trades and more volume but, as I've often said, it takes 4 weeks of action to really get going. That's really a reference to modelling, but it can apply outside of that for sure.

At week 5, the sharps, as it stands in this market, will enter.

But we are seeing volume and trades, in line with some of the market schemes, as we move forward.

The two games on Sat and two games on Sunday are a big payoff. Having one Firday and one Sunday not so much.

[KVB]

...Paper Two pick, prior to any information on Saturday...

Michigan -3.5

Philly -2.5 (or even -1.5, which is out there)

But let's make it even more definitive, because of the line movement we've seen let's make it a ml parlay...

Mich ml
Philly ml...

...Paper Bet:

3 pick parlay...

Birm +6
Mich -3.5
Phi-2

Let's follow the money...

Didn't even think to post about the ml 3 pick parlay, it can be too much to get into for the thread but had a nice start with Birm.

Market just hanging that NJ +2.5 out there, just like last week. That's tough to Fade at this point. There are increasing reasons to by NJ.

The pressure of one favorite and one dog, in the pair of today's games, is still in the market. Reading my analysis yesterday, you can see NJ is under pressure.

There is pressure on Philly too, and could be more public than the market is letting on.

But it's a big game for NJ, can they withstand the pressure?

I'm thinking no, and the Philly has the shot here.

[KVB]

Before the first game started, BM moved the line to Philly -3 but they had to keep the dog side priced.

It was, at one point, Philly -3 (+106)/J +3 (-127).

But that was before game time, they were trying to generate some action on what, for them, is looking to be a fairly tight line of 2.5/3

[Headsterx]

Oh shit, Pitt bringing in a 2018 NFL 4th rounder.

A ringer? Can he turn the culture of Pitt around? Can he get pizza for everybody?

😂😂😂

I can’t believe I thought they had improved. The worst coach in football.

[KVB]

Moneyflow parlays looking strong.

How many times have you guys had a 3, 4 or more parlay lose on the last play?

We have time to ponder this game.

Strongly leaning Philly here, but going against some of the fundamentals that make up the NJ play are difficult.

[KVB]

Going ahead, in the interest of the thread, and taking another risky market shot with...

1-May

PHI -2.5 (-105)

Another market shot here. I think the patience here was waiting to let Pit to fail, even though we already had our win this week.

I hope I don't regret "fading" a strong NJ situation, but with its success last week and in the interest of give and take I think this play belongs here and in this thread.

My gameplan remains the same, from before the first game this week started. Should NJ take an early lead, I will strongly consider the Philadelphia comeback. If Philly takes the early lead, I will not be thinking the same.

Good Luck

[jjgold]

Good luck
Pass

[KVB]

I have no opinion on the Total, it's just not there.

[KVB]

Good luck
Pass

Yes, this really could be considered a NJ or pass situation. A case could be made in my office.

But the edge is so close, the borderline is right there.

I've taken the side of it being "not NJ" tonight, if we were fruther along in the season, it would be a pass. But since it's not NJ, it must be Philly.

Refer to the paper bet parlays to see what I did there.

Enjoy your Sunday evening, Gold.

[KVB]

Pinny was showing -2.5 (+103)/+2.5 (-120) before taking the -2.5 back to even money (-117/+100)

Yeah, we've seen that before, even BOL putting the nickel on the dog at -115.

I'm not getting fooled and this in fact serves to make my case stronger, given last week.

If we can get some underdog moneyline pressure to manifest, I could be looking at a Philly ml bet. The situation, again given last week's "jackpot" lends to some sort of settling of the settlement. The would mean a Philly 1 or 2 point win.

The "greed of the favorite spread bettor" could cost us.

As of now, I like my position and feel we have a grasp on what's being brought, even if we are standing in the middle of a minefield (and here I am talking about adding a moneyline bet, lol) Now we'll just have to see it gets brought.

[KVB]

...If we can get some underdog moneyline pressure to manifest, I could be looking at a Philly ml bet...

We've seen BM drop to 2 and I believe this is a "fake" shift in that they will try to exploit their customers into a steam type move.

I will counter the move and pick up...

1-May

PHI -133

Again I will look to pick up one more bet on Philly, LIVE when, not if, but when NJ takes the lead early.

[KVB]

If the line were bigger, and there were more room to work with, and we could develop a forecast with EV, this represents a situation where, market wise, one could buy the NJ ml, and hope to sell back for profit.

The only issue is the the larger the cushion you get, the more your team has to score early, or you have to be patient and wait.

But history shows that's really not an issue. Size of line and need to score more early are simply not correlated with a lack of that scoring or getting to the sell back point.

IF it's a game wher 3 scores are needed, then they will come as often as the 1 score needed situation. This is a little "Foster" like and not really about this thread.

[KVB]

Well, Philly scored first that is acutally not good for the cause.

Hopefully the statement is for those on the dog to not try to disrespect the system as I outlined in the first posts before gtames started this week.

If that's the statment and story, so be it, it will be a Philly blowout.



But I'm a little bothered NJ didn't score first. I suppose the TB comeback, even if just to spash the moneyline served that purpose this week.

[KVB]

Well, Philly scored first that is acutally not good for the cause...

...But I'm a little bothered NJ didn't score first...

I will say this, paying more than -300 LIVE right now is not a smart market play, win or lose.

NJ came to play. They are getting yards and doing a better job at it than Philly, but Philly leads 7-0.

[KVB]

If we were working with Forecasts and gauges, a NJ lead could trigger a Philly LIVE buy still, even if Philly scored first, but it's rare.

I can't assess value in the LIVE markets either and they aren't as liquid as we'd like to see.

Philly "on sale" for -260.

Could it be that the comeback is NJ's? I have indications of a higher probability of a comeback, even with the little info we have. This make me nervous given how consistent NJ really has been.

[KVB]

The more I review the more I see that TB comeback as this week's rebound, or "bounce" from last Sunday.

The chances of NJ comeback lessense with that assumption, but I think Philly has a QB injury.

New Jersey, around 4-1 odds, has potential here, but with the FG it will be gone.

I'm holding, I'd like to see some of the settlement games add up without a great LIVE market, then we can catch them when it's time. had NJ scored first, I would have struck.

[KVB]

NJ made the move.

Top QB in the league is injured for Philly.




A lot of room for a lot of points second half.

Could get interesting.

[KVB]

Such a high probability of a comeback this game, I do hope patience holds true and that the NJ comeback here, even if they get a lead, is fughazi.

Could Philly be a fughazi favorite?

We continue to root for Philly, but wish we had NJ at around +400 LIVE...lol.

[KVB]

Kicking has bween turrible.

Missed XP could set up for a Philly 2 point win situation down the stretch.

Those fuks.

You know why the kicking is so bad? You know why?

Because...

[KVB]

[d2bets]

I found this thread...
Which caused me to look at live lines...
Which caused me to bet -2.5-130 and +5.5+115.
Wait, I know nothing of USFL...does this have any chance at all or did I get key numbered out?

[KVB]

Such a high probability of a comeback this game, I do hope patience holds true and that the NJ comeback here, even if they get a lead, is fughazi.

Could Philly be a fughazi favorite?..

NJ +3.5 is about -135, -137, etc.

The public doesn't care what they let's hope they're getting sucked in as well. But they just might be getting shorted on the winner.

[Headsterx]

Generals QB is running!

[d2bets]

Interesting Fanduel has ML -115 and -1.5-115. I guess 1 margin is impossible. Or they're just stupid?

[d2bets]

Is USFL anything like NFL? They kick field goals or what? LOL

[Headsterx]

That RB just manhandled Stars defense for TD.

[Headsterx]

That RB just manhandled Stars defense for TD.

Ops, correction: 1st and goal but scores anyway for TD.

[Headsterx]

Is USFL anything like NFL? They kick field goals or what? LOL

See post #16 for different in rules.

Check KVB earlier posts for very informative stuff on betting the league.

[d2bets]

Hard to get down and low limits, but seeing some huge differences live lines.

[KVB]

The lead has changed.

But there is a lot of time left.

Despite seeing NJ dominate on the field, I almost hit Philly at +160, but couldn't get down.

[KVB]

Hard to get down and low limits, but seeing some huge differences live lines.

Nah, not really trying to exploit line differences like that in this thread. That was for another thread with that level trading.

[d2bets]

Are there different key number spreads than in the NFL? Or is it kind of similar?

Tell me to stfu if I'm asking stupid questions.