[texhooper]

Is Timee injuried at all? Man, I do not remember 1 game where he moved his 6-10 ass, either quick enough or fast enough?
And then he flashes that cocky-butt jester we see on their website, or ESPN'S, I believe?
I'd like to slap that goofy nonsense right out of him.
Like to, but only if he would not slap back?

I’ve wondered about him too and the crazy thing is when you watch him he seems off but in that same game will have still put up good numbers.

I happen to think they’re still really really good but the public uses any excuse to get off the Zags it seems. They’re always perceived as terrible if they lose one game, it’s kinda weird. And they’ve lost a few so I think there can be some good opportunities coming.

Whether they cover the four scrub games I mentioned or not, they definitely will blow out some of these “good teams” in conference as well, as we all know kids hear and read everything these days and there will be some sacrificial lambs in their wake I bet. Like here San Francisco, here’s a 30 point beatdown, we’re still the kings of the WCC and don’t you forget it. That’s just my thoughts

[ABEHONEST]

Betting and thinking which way to bet are two different categories.
Looking back, I see no way--unless my clear-thinking abilities suddenly reappear--that I will wager on them on any road game?
Road games seem to be more vicious this year?

Good luck if you can win in this, evolved Bookie world?

[KVB]

Gotcha, I must've misread the dialogue. Best of luck!

No misread there, you're right on topic.

It really is a discussion towards which way we would go, cover or no cover. Tex and I are talking ourselves into cover but I was hoping someone would chime in exactly like you did.

[KVB]

Well I think what KVB and I are saying is the John Q Publics of the world will likely not be overvaluing them this year due to their losses and lackluster play at times. So basically what I’m saying is there’s likely an uptick coming for the team that might not be reflected in the market. May not happen but that’s where my thoughts are as of this writing

We are on the same page.

I think jacket is laying down the status quo, rightly so and smartly so, and I think we're trying to vision the situation where it breaks from that.

I'm going to try to dig up some stuff here and see what we come up with.

[Headsterx]

I might be wrong and only off memory but never saw Gonzaga as a team completely destroying weak teams in West Coast play. But then again I’m a Pac12 follower and don’t really pay attention to them until they play Bay Area teams of Santa Clara, USF and St Mary’s which the latter I’ll be attending. No hardcore basis but taking no cover.

Pepperdine v. Gonzaga -29.5

[ABEHONEST]

I might be wrong and only off memory but never saw Gonzaga as a team completely destroying weak teams in West Coast play. But then again I’m a Pac12 follower and don’t really pay attention to them until they play Bay Area teams of Santa Clara, USF and St Mary’s which the latter I’ll be attending. No hardcore basis but taking no cover.

Pepperdine v. Gonzaga -29.5

Hey Headman, I do not see the spread you have here or this scheduled game either?
What is going on in Gonzaga's world for the nexr week?
Any solid ideas?

[Headsterx]

Hey Headman, I do not see the spread you have here or this scheduled game either?
What is going on in Gonzaga's world for the nexr week?
Any solid ideas?

Bovada, Heritage and BOL have the line up. Game starts @ 6pm.

They then got BYU on Thursday and next Saturday coming to the Bay against Santa Clara. Should win those games but small test compared to WCC in general.

[ABEHONEST]

Thanks, but SBR is not showing this game at all?
I usually scan for ranked teams on SBR, but today they have no #4 listed?
A bit strange for SBR? They are normally very solid.

ESPN does have this game as going on, too. And the same pointspread. 8 CT.

[ABEHONEST]

My usual handicapping idea on this #4 ranked taem?
They have to be chopping on that bit and with all that stored up energy and those heavy expectations coming from everywhere.
So, even though it's not been a good year for me, I still try to think of the mindset of all the Zag starters, who have been idle and sitting around, and probably grumbling, "when can we get out there and prove to the public, we can play superb basketball and we definitely believe we are the best damn team in the college nation," so....

This kind of psychology. But I will only bet the first half, just to see if I have guessed right, first.
Then?

[KVB]

Don't like much of the macro conference comparison, we need more games.

Let's get back to old school KVB market analysis here. Here are my numbers for the game.

My stacking percentages forecast has Gonzaga winning by 18 points, 85-68. This Forecast has gone 49-49-2 against opening spreads over the last 100 plays of this conference, and 47-49-4 against the closing spread. For NCAAB overall, this Forecast has gone 51-41-8 against opening lines and 49-48-3 vs the close over the last 100 plays, in rotation order.

This stacking Forecast is a little better over the last 250 plays. For the conference, it is 132-115-3 vs opening spreads and 129-117-4 vs. the closing line. For the NCAAB rotation has a whole, this Forecast is 132-112-6 vs openers and 130-112-8 vs the closing line over the last 250 plays. The Forecast is beating the closing line here over both conference play and overall NCCAB, but it's at the lowest rolling 100 game average of the season.

I think it's fair to show the performance of these forecasts, good or bad, as they adjust with moving league and conference medians. It's my form of full disclosure in the absence of all these plays being posted. Remember, these records are with as little at .5 points discrepency against the market. These are not triggered plays that, say, triggered because my forecast was "X" number of points away from the market, this is every game being analysed and recorded.

The non-predictive public gauge, a line designed to show the public opinion, based on basic ratings, forecasts, and numbers in the public face, has Gonzaga winning 88-64.

This line though, against Pepperdine, has moved away from the forecasts, from about 28.5 to 30.5. The same for the Total, moving away from the Forecasts.

I can identify what I consider sharp trades on the OVER in a few spots in the market place and it is consistent with the line movement. Also, there is indication the public, as usual, likes the OVER, despite what today's public gauge shows.

When it comes to the spread I do not see such trades. There is evidence, in fact, that the public is leaning Pepperdine, but we have much trading left today.

I would not be surprised if the Favorite and Over may be the slight, of not more position of the public, it usually is, but the situation might not lend that way.

By the numbers and some early action Gonzaga does appear to be overvalued here, adding to it the market move to -30.

Could we see this -30 drop back down to -28.5 or 29?

We just might.

It's almost as though the market is sitting at 30 hoping the bettors of all ilk will recognize the overvalue Gonzaga and perhaps hit the dog. If it appears the book is selling the underdog here during the day, at the same time that the Forecasts line up that way, we could see the Gonza blowout, despite the notion of being overvalued.

The books could be protecting here, against the favorite bets, with the move to -30. The winning bet might be the "bad" bet in terms of value. It happens, and it's healthy to identify these situations, or at least potential situations.

I'll report back in on this game as information and betting volume comes in.

[ABEHONEST]

Don't like much of the macro conference comparison, we need more games.

Let's get back to old school KVB market analysis here. Here are my numbers for the game.

My stacking percentages forecast has Gonzaga winning by 18 points, 85-68. This Forecast has gone 49-49-2 against opening spreads over the last 100 plays of this conference, and 47-49-4 against the closing spread. For NCAAB overall, this Forecast has gone 51-41-8 against opening lines and 49-48-3 vs the close over the last 100 plays, in rotation order.

This stacking Forecast is a little better over the last 250 plays. For the conference, it is 132-115-3 vs opening spreads and 129-117-4 vs. the closing line. For the NCAAB rotation has a whole, this Forecast is 132-112-6 vs openers and 130-112-8 vs the closing line over the last 250 plays. The Forecast is beating the closing line here over both conference play and overall NCCAB, but it's at the lowest rolling 100 game average of the season.

I think it's fair to show the performance of these forecasts, good or bad, as they adjust with moving league and conference medians. It's my form of full disclosure in the absence of all these plays being posted. Remember, these records are with as little at .5 points discrepency against the market. These are not triggered plays that, say, triggered because my forecast was "X" number of points away from the market, this is every game being analysed and recorded.

The non-predictive public gauge, a line designed to show the public opinion, based on basic ratings, forecasts, and numbers in the public face, has Gonzaga winning 88-64.

This line though, against Pepperdine, has moved away from the forecasts, from about 28.5 to 30.5. The same for the Total, moving away from the Forecasts.

I can identify what I consider sharp trades on the OVER in a few spots in the market place and it is consistent with the line movement. Also, there is indication the public, as usual, likes the OVER, despite what today's public gauge shows.

When it comes to the spread I do not see such trades. There is evidence, in fact, that the public is leaning Pepperdine, but we have much trading left today.

I would not be surprised if the Favorite and Over may be the slight, of not more position of the public, it usually is, but the situation might not lend that way.

By the numbers and some early action Gonzaga does appear to be overvalued here, adding to it the market move to -30.

Could we see this -30 drop back down to -28.5 or 29?

We just might.

It's almost as though the market is sitting at 30 hoping the bettors of all ilk will recognize the overvalue Gonzaga and perhaps hit the dog. If it appears the book is selling the underdog here during the day, at the same time that the Forecasts line up that way, we could see the Gonza blowout, despite the notion of being overvalued.

The books could be protecting here, against the favorite bets, with the move to -30. The winning bet might be the "bad" bet in terms of value. It happens, and it's healthy to identify these situations, or at least potential situations.

I'll report back in on this game as information and betting volume comes in.

Wow! You post like someone I know personally.

Okay, KVB, I see you sure know your math. But it seems to me, what you claim is complicated and not quite simple enough to be well understood? And a lot of hard work you did for your theory.

I keep going back to my theory of what I truly believe, complicates these pointspreads the most? That damn 3-pointer!
How can a bettor or gambler, wage a well-studied pick with a lot of confidence, when you know, that this 3-point-killer will likely, either make you or break you?

It's a toss-up to see which of these two parties love it more; The Bookie, or The paying public?

[jjgold]

I think there’s still a solid chalk to win the tournament

[ABEHONEST]

I think there’s still a solid chalk to win the tournament

I'm far from being convinced of that idea, JJ.
Those 2 Bigs are the key and this Timme is the one I do believe has not gotten in gear yet?
Why not?
I like Nemrob, but with that frame, and when we get into the real serious basketball in March, I see is a major handicap.

Additional muscle, usually means, you'll have better quickness, a quicker 1st step especially, and be able to jump, maybe, 2 or 3 inches higher than before? If you're a slender individual and play sports, it's a one-way street to take so to win more games and create better stats. The winning move, many, many times.

I have to wonder, why is this big kid not gaining weight by now? I'll watch him tonight and see if I have to keep wondering about the coach, or the kid?

[Headsterx]

Gonzaga ATS (WCC): 1-0

Gulp!

[ABEHONEST]

Gonzaga ATS (WCC): 1-0

Gulp!

Are we even going to have a tourney in '22?

[Headsterx]

Wow, I thought BYU would be a decent test for Gonzaga but Zags are -14.5 favs @ home. Top Ten teams have been losing the last few weeks, and this is probably 2 or 3 times Zag have a decent chance of losing... if you can call it that.

[ABEHONEST]

Wow, I thought BYU would be a decent test for Gonzaga but Zags are -14.5 favs @ home. Top Ten teams have been losing the last few weeks, and this is probably 2 or 3 times Zag have a decent chance of losing... if you can call it that.

Not at home! If they lose tonight I will drop them like a hot rock.
Surely, they--well, the players, not sure about Few-- are looking forward to seeing that #1 slot again?

And just maybe, since they have won 5 in a row, they are back to being in gear? I'll be watching Timme, especially tonight. No center to contend [I thought ] with, so can't he bust through those forwards tonight?

Get this--but do not forget, they call it gambling for a good reason--Timme is bigger at 6-10 and 235, and avg. 16.8, than all 6 forwards of BYU's.
And, look what those 6 are averaging:, 8, 7.5, 7, 6.5, 6.5, 1.5.

**I did discover a 6-11 center after looking at BYU's roster but he's not seen on their stats? Weird. He avgs, 15 minutes a game at a 6.1 averge and yep, he's bigger than Timme.
That find was a bit strange?

[KVB]

So, to review, last time we saw the numbers and bettors on the underdog while the books appeared to suck the value out of the winning bet, the Gonzaga cover, with the high -30 line. This was the analysis, and it was the result.

Today the stacking percentages forecast has Gonzaga winning by 12 points, 78-66. The non-predictive public gauge has Gonzaga winning 81-70.

Yet we are looking at a 15 point spread here. Once again, although a little closer, Gonzaga appears to be over valued. Last time I said the books kept it high to protect against the winning bet. It's easy to assume that again, given the circumstances, but that could be a mistake here.

Not only is the line closer to the numbers, which means we see no overt effort to take value from the favorite, but the bettors appear to be making the mistake I mention above, and are looking towards Gonzaga. The market, given the last environment and result, is leading the bettors and has, in fact, already flipped them to the favorite.

BYU is a different animal than Pepperdine. They will slow the pace and keep the scoring low, overall. Not only do we have a strong indication for the UNDER bet, but there is, albeit not as strong, indication that BYU's pace will slightly disrupt Gonzaga.

Gonza will get theirs, just not as much as usual, and possibly cover the spread, but my indication this time is the opposite of last time. Last time we viewed the favorite, it came, this time we view the Underdog at +15.

But the UNDER could be the better bet of the game.

BYU could very well show the world tonight just what they are all about. The idea of an UPSET here seems tough, given the history, but sometimes the toughest bets are the right ones to make.

Think about it.

Good Luck.

[ABEHONEST]

KVB, you just may have talked me into betting an open two team parlay with 2 opens? BYU and UN.
You do some serious studying and I do respect that.

How's your college season been going for you so far?

[ABEHONEST]

I played small on Texas T., so small I forgot to even check on the game.
A thumping they did do.
If I had played 500, of course, they would have fouled out 2 starters the first half.

I've been known to do these type parlays, especially after what KBV has studied and expressed.
Now I hope I lose.

[texhooper]

Whether they cover the four scrub games I mentioned or not, they definitely will blow out some of these “good teams” in conference as well, as we all know kids hear and read everything these days and there will be some sacrificial lambs in their wake I bet. Like here San Francisco, here’s a 30 point beatdown, we’re still the kings of the WCC and don’t you forget it. That’s just my thoughts

We’re seeing this early against BYU tonight. Good lord what a beating. Against BYU number 18 in defensive efficiency according to kenpom. Zags look like a video game offense against them

[ABEHONEST]

We’re seeing this early against BYU tonight. Good lord what a beating. Against BYU number 18 in defensive efficiency according to kenpom. Zags look like a video game offense against them

Yes, and BYU shot 1 of 13 with 3's their last game. Tonight, they actually made 13 threes to the #2 Zags, 11, and get smoked.
This stuff you can't make up.

[Headsterx]

Gonzaga WCC ATS: 8-4-2

Not bad but only one I cared about was last night.

Hey Abe, not quite sure why you thought it was necessary to create another thread for me to check in. As noted with my first post, I was going to the game.

Also, if you were unsure of my trustworthiness, you should have questioned me at the beginning. I have no problem but on game day to question me sounds weak. I’ll look for the infamous thread of my credentials and that wraps it up.

[Headsterx]

I think it would be only fair that you should read the whole thread...

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...-forum-p7.html

But the main post is #212 where I specifically have laid out how I have ALWAYS own up to everything even my own contests. Once again, I have no problem if you had asked at the beginning, but seriously on game day??? Not a good look. I'm also cool with our other wager but if you feel like you want out, then let me know soon or otherwise do NOT question me again, please.

[ABEHONEST]

Headman is well on his way to being paid. I just hope he doesn't disappear for another 40 days again, though?
Major personal majors, need to be discussed "before" the game starts, not afterward.
All is forgiven, though.

[Headsterx]

Headman is well on his way to being paid. I just hope he doesn't disappear for another 40 days again, though?
Major personal majors, need to be discussed "before" the game starts, not afterward.
All is forgiven, though.

I'm confused on exactly what you're talking about. However, I guess it's all good. The next wager ends in 1.5+ years. I'll give you a very early heads up... I won't be around on 11/10 and 11/11. However, in case the event has ended (so morbid... lol) I'll pay up and seriously if you read that thread, you should relax and don't have to worry about getting scam.

I'll put my 100 points up against any one individual, that Biden will not even able to stand-up by Nov. 10, 2023.
One gambler only.