Don't like much of the macro conference comparison, we need more games.
Let's get back to old school KVB market analysis here. Here are my numbers for the game.
My stacking percentages forecast has Gonzaga winning by 18 points, 85-68. This Forecast has gone 49-49-2 against opening spreads over the last 100 plays of this conference, and 47-49-4 against the closing spread. For NCAAB overall, this Forecast has gone 51-41-8 against opening lines and 49-48-3 vs the close over the last 100 plays, in rotation order.
This stacking Forecast is a little better over the last 250 plays. For the conference, it is 132-115-3 vs opening spreads and 129-117-4 vs. the closing line. For the NCAAB rotation has a whole, this Forecast is 132-112-6 vs openers and 130-112-8 vs the closing line over the last 250 plays. The Forecast is beating the closing line here over both conference play and overall NCCAB, but it's at the lowest rolling 100 game average of the season.
I think it's fair to show the performance of these forecasts, good or bad, as they adjust with moving league and conference medians. It's my form of full disclosure in the absence of all these plays being posted. Remember, these records are with as little at .5 points discrepency against the market. These are not triggered plays that, say, triggered because my forecast was "X" number of points away from the market, this is every game being analysed and recorded.
The non-predictive public gauge, a line designed to show the public opinion, based on basic ratings, forecasts, and numbers in the public face, has Gonzaga winning 88-64.
This line though, against Pepperdine, has moved away from the forecasts, from about 28.5 to 30.5. The same for the Total, moving away from the Forecasts.
I can identify what I consider sharp trades on the OVER in a few spots in the market place and it is consistent with the line movement. Also, there is indication the public, as usual, likes the OVER, despite what today's public gauge shows.
When it comes to the spread I do not see such trades. There is evidence, in fact, that the public is leaning Pepperdine, but we have much trading left today.
I would not be surprised if the Favorite and Over may be the slight, of not more position of the public, it usually is, but the situation might not lend that way.
By the numbers and some early action Gonzaga does appear to be overvalued here, adding to it the market move to -30.
Could we see this -30 drop back down to -28.5 or 29?
We just might.
It's almost as though the market is sitting at 30 hoping the bettors of all ilk will recognize the overvalue Gonzaga and perhaps hit the dog. If it appears the book is selling the underdog here during the day, at the same time that the Forecasts line up that way, we could see the Gonza blowout, despite the notion of being overvalued.
The books could be protecting here, against the favorite bets, with the move to -30. The winning bet might be the "bad" bet in terms of value. It happens, and it's healthy to identify these situations, or at least potential situations.
I'll report back in on this game as information and betting volume comes in.
