1. #1
    stevenash
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    Tonight's Miami at NC State game.

    After spending the last hour looking at all the angles in this Miami/NC St. match up here's what I think.

    I think Miami is not double digits better than NC St. on the Wolfpack's home turf.
    Quite frankly I find that +10.5 home dog betting line quite disrespectful to the Wolfpack Nation.

    OK, here's my take away after spending more time than I should have analyzing this game.

    NC State is a good home team, and Miami is a not very well liked opponent.
    There's built in incentive for NC St. to perform well at home.
    They are 2-0 this season at home.
    They are 4-2 overall and ranked in the top 25.

    NC State SoS is the 11th toughest schedule in the nation.
    They play a tougher schedule than Miami.

    The across the boars team stats are pretty much the same except NC State has yielded more points allowed on defense than the Hurricanes, largely due to that tough schedule they play.

    Now don't get the impression I am disrespecting Miami.
    I am not.
    They are 5-1 in a tough ACC Conference.
    Like NC St. Miami's schedule is tough also, just not as tough as State.

    Both teams have good offenses but their defenses are ordinary.
    The average Miami game score on the average is 33-22 (65points)
    The average NC St. game score is 34-31 (65 points)

    The offense numbers passing and rushing are pretty much equal.
    Both teams rack up around 400 total yards per game.
    The only edge I can clearly give Miami is scoring offense.

    Here's a good link if you want to compare the numbers of both teams.
    I can't punch them all up in this tread, too time consuming.

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...tate/2020.html

    All things considered, Miami going into Carolina tonight as a 10 or 10.5 road favorite is like I said disrespectful.
    Borderline ludicrous.

    Now you want to tell me Miami is 3.5 or 4 or 4.5 better than NC St. in this spot, OK I'll listen, but unless I am missing something 10 points to the home team is a good bargain.

    Oh, there should be about 64 points or so scored tonight too I think.

    I like the home team getting the lumber in the spot.

  2. #2
    Hot Jerry
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    Final score : Miami 75 - NC St 3 !! Basketball game !! Miami are the easiest MONEY I EVER MADE !!

  3. #3
    pologq
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    great analysis by nash as usual. i find the line high. i expected -5 or -6 tops. i think getting double digits is a good value.

  4. #4
    Hot Jerry
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    I LOVE GREEN FRIDAYS and EASY MONEY !! In Las Vegas the money grow on the trees , all u have to do is climb a tree and get ur self some , like I do !!

  5. #5
    GT21Megatron
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hot Jerry View Post
    Final score : Miami 75 - NC St 3 !! Basketball game !! Miami are the easiest MONEY I EVER MADE !!
    On Miami myself here Jerry!!!

    the only two other teams worth a shit NC State has played waxed there ass....UNC and VTech...Miami is in the upper tier of the ACC and better then both of those squads plus coming off a bye. Let’s get this coin jerry
    Points Awarded:

    mjsuax13 gave GT21Megatron 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  6. #6
    jjgold
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    NC St

  7. #7
    Renegades
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    NC state is not the same team with Hockman at qb. He is not very good at all

  8. #8
    chosen4th
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    Quote Originally Posted by Renegades View Post
    NC state is not the same team with Hockman at qb. He is not very good at all
    How does one do a write up and doesn’t mention the injury situation at qb?

  9. #9
    KnuckleHeadz
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    Ticket#:319319113
    Nov 06 07:30 PM
    User/Phone INTERNET / -1
    Date Placed Nov 06 09:07 AM
    Sport
    CFB
    Description STRAIGHT BET
    [3309] TOTAL o13-120
    (1Q MIAMI FLORIDA 💵💵
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/24/2022


  10. #10
    Renegades
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    Of course Hockman looks like Steve Young tonight lol

  11. #11
    Otters27
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    Nice call on the over

  12. #12
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Otters27 View Post
    Nice call on the over
    Thanks, the ATS looks good too so far.
    With the 10.5 I'm up 17.5 points midway through the third.

    Now I'm not saying Miami can not and will not score three consecutive unanswered TD's in the final 20 football minutes.
    If they do, then I deserve to lose the side.
    The over already covered for me, this NC State bet now for all intents and purposes is a freeroll.

    Best of luck to all.

  13. #13
    Tanko
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    Nasher be damn good capper.

  14. #14
    carolinakid
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    miami is just like unc, both are so damn over-rated and should not be in the top 20

  15. #15
    The General
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    We got beat up on this one.

  16. #16
    Bostongambler
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    Good hit yo

  17. #17
    johnnyvegas13
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    Sharp nasher

  18. #18
    jrgum3
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    The Over was easy money. Got to love plays that hit in the 3rd Quarter. As for Miami they are overrated. They got blown out by the only good team they played in Clemson and very easily could have lost tonight so as usual you were spot on with your breakdown Nasher.

  19. #19
    dlowilly
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    I need to start following this guy

    That was a spot on write up

  20. #20
    hawkeye 16
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    Quote Originally Posted by dlowilly View Post
    I need to start following this guy

    That was a spot on write up
    Nasher is sharp.

  21. #21
    sdalton03
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    As a Canes Alumni, never ever bet UM coming off a bye week. They were 0-4 under Manny Diaz until last night. Thank god for D’Eriq King! Go Canes!

  22. #22
    jjgold
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  23. #23
    pabonaparte
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    I love this.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/21/2022


  24. #24
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by chosen4th View Post
    How does one do a write up and doesn’t mention the injury situation at qb?

    There's a few reasons for that and I mentioned them often throughout the past decade I've been writing up baseball threads here.

    For starters to write a complete, thorough statistical analysis of each game I do write up here I would need two hours to do so.
    (I know, I am an IT Operations Analysis by trade, it's what I do for a living, it's what I am, it's what I do.)
    Since I am not compensated by SBR or advertisements those two hours required to post a complete and thorough breakdown of all the mind numbing data like a complete list of inquires for instance would have to come out of my disposable time.
    And I am sorry, I use my disposable time for my personal projects that do generate supplemental income, in particular my baseball blog and podcasts. On the social media outlets I do use to host my blogs and other writings that requires time and money, what's the age old adage about time is money?
    The two hours I would need to create a thread with all the player injuries and other facts and figure wouldn't make good business sense for me.
    On top of all else albeit it in analytical writing, technical writing, or in traditional literature, to do that for a living it requires also a fact checker/editor to double check yourself, and like I mentioned am not being compensated one iota for my writing here, so to hire a fact checker/ editor would be foolish.

    Not for nothing I do have a fact checker/editor for my social media analytical writing and communications that I do with my disposable time but why would I want to pay her extra money for something I don't make money from.

    I would ask you to check them out however SBR management has a strict policy against self promotion.

    Two more final points.

    The half a dozen or so paragraphs I use in my selection threads takes me 20 minutes.
    I can spare 20 minutes of my disposable time for a selection thread, not the two hours to do it exactly right.

    So I only have time to briefly explain as to why I am telling you who I am betting.
    A selection thread without reasoning is nothing more to me than a dart board guess.
    Many posters create a thread like this.
    "I like LA this Sunday minus the points."
    And that would be the end of the thread.

    Every time I see one of those threads without one iota of an explanation as to why he or she it selecting a side or total is a big waste of time. And every time I see something like that I wonder out load to nobody in particular "Why? Because you said so"

    I've been all aboard the analytics train as it pertains to sports and sports writing since Bill James and Billy Beane brought it to the front burner in the 80's.
    At that very same time I was wrapping up my baseball scholastic playing days and just starting out in IT.
    You get the connection with me yet?
    I played baseball for 12 years from the age of 8 to the age of 20.
    It's my major sports passion.
    I make a living using in computers, you see math and computers are my other passions.
    Get it?

    Last point, and this is the most important point.
    It's really clear to me you did not read with comprehension my original post, which is post #1 in this very thread.
    Scroll up to post #1,

    In the middle of my post I wrote this

    Here's a good link if you want to compare the numbers of both teams.
    I can't punch them all up in this tread, too time consuming.

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...tate/2020.html


    I was fully aware of what key players were available and which players were not available.

    What those couple of sentences mean is just that, I don't have more than 20 minutes to post all the data you need to analyze this game but here's a link I'll provide you with you have any questions as to any other data I didn't write.

    Hey, I'm just telling anybody who wants to know my opinion what I think of this game and what are my reasons for making that selection.
    All sports are not just performance driven, but analytical driven as well.

    Sports analytics refers to the use of data and advanced statistics to measure performance to make informed decisions.
    I know, this is what I do in the business world for a living, I analyze data to keep my bosses informed.
    As it applies to sports, it's a side hustle of mine, being a math geek, I love all sports stats, I gather all the data I feel is relevant to a particular game, analyze all of it, and form an information related opinion and then I pass my thoughts on to people who are interested in my opinion. And there are people out there who are indeed interested in my opinion.

    If you are not interested in my opinion, so be it, life goes on, and I will never be butt hurt over what some nameless faceless person types on a computer what they think of me.
    Truth be told I don't want or need everybody to like me.
    But that's just me. But the mere fact that you brought to my attention that I failed to write about some injuries kind of suggests maybe you too are interested in my opinion..

    Have a good weekend, stay safe.

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