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Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley

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It's an overdue matchup between the last two men to hold the welterweight belt before the Kamaru Usman era began. Colby Covington took the title during Tyron Woodley's absence due to injury, but a matchup between them was overtaken by events when Usman rose to the top and stayed there. Finally happening, the Woodley-Covington pairing brings elite talent and is made more interesting by some personal heat.


There's familiarity between them, as they overlapped each other in training at American Top Team. That familiarity apparently bred some antagonism rather than friendship. There are strong personal differences, plus the need of each man to rebound from lopsided losses. Add a stark stylistic contrast, and the fight will have an edge of excitement like what we normally expect from title fight in front of a packed stadium. Let's hope the cage has strong microphones to catch any trash talk.


Prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.


Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.

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Welterweight main event: No. 2 Colby Covington (-360) vs. No. 5 Tyron Woodley (+290)


Tale Of The Tape

	TYRON WOODLEY	COLBY COVINGTON
Last fight weight class	Welterweight	Welterweight
Age	38	32
Height	69	71
Reach	74	72
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Analyzed minutes	218	177
Standup striking offense
Total knockdown ratio (scored:received)	11:1	1:2
Distance knockdown rate	8.9%	0.4%
Head jab accuracy	19%	23%
Head power accuracy	28%	30%
Total standup strike ratio	0.7	1.6
Striking defense
Total head strike defense	79%	67%
Distance knockdown defense ("Chin")	100%	99%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts per min standing/clinch	0.22	0.91
Takedown accuracy	30%	52%
Advances per takedown/top control	0.5	0.7
Opponent takedown attempts	55	23
Takedown defense	93%	78%
Share of total ground time in control	61%	93%
Submission attempts per trip to ground	0.20	0.03

Covington opened as a clear -285 favorite, and the market has continued to back him to a far more extreme number. Even if there's some regression on price, Covington is going to be a heavy favorite on fight night. It's surprising to see Woodley, a former dominant champ and the first welterweight to be mentioned in the same breath as Georges St-Pierre as the division's best of all time, as such a steep dog. But back-to-back lopsided decision losses and the fact that he's creeping closer to age 40 have turned the market against him.


Both men competed (and won gold) at the Division 1 level of NCAA wrestling, but in MMA, Covington has been the one to change levels far more often. In fact, Covington attempts takedowns at more than twice the UFC average, while Woodley attempts them at just half the average. We should expect Covington to be the aggressor, but it's possible that the confidence he has in his hands and his awareness of Woodley's strong takedown defense could force more standing exchanges. Should there be ground work, Covington gets a small edge in wrestling, while Woodley has the better submission game.


Regardless of the grappling matchup, they will absolutely spend some time standing on their feet and trading, and while there they will display different strengths. Covington's game is about pressure and punching combinations. He uses a less diverse mix than most strikers but throws a greater volume of strikes than any other fighter on the card. He averages more than 20 strikes per minute while standing at a distance, compared to just five for Woodley. Covington outworks even high-paced opponents, and Woodley allows opponents to initiate exchanges and control the cage while he circles and looks for an opening.


Round by round, that extreme activity differential suggests that Covington will lead the dance and win any rounds on the cards, but it also opens the biggest question in this matchup. That question focuses on the biggest weapon between them: Woodley's power. Woodley has long been the hardest hitter in the division, and the one number on Covington's stat line that looks risky is his poor head strike defense and his historical willingness to take a punch while trying to land a combination. That isn't a game he should play with Woodley for long.


The numbers clearly lean Covington, but there's still risk, and his price inflation has eliminated any remaining value.


E+ recommends: Pass at current odds. If you use Covington in parlays, hedge with a long shot Woodley inside the distance play.

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Best bets elsewhere on the card

When middleweight Kevin Holland (-240) made his UFC debut after graduating from the Dana White Contender Series, he took one round off of former light heavyweight title challenger Thiago Santos. That alone should turn some heads. But on paper, Holland has superior striking and more aggressive wrestling than his opponent, Darren Stewart (+200). Both men are coming off impressive finishes this summer, but the massive size advantage for Holland combined with his technical metrics justify him as a favorite.



E+ recommends: Money line play on Holland


The co-main event should be full of violence when Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone (+135) meets Niko Price (-155). Both men tend to win and lose by a finish, and each brings dangerous weapons into the cage. But with Cerrone coming off four consecutive losses, he's still durable and highly motivated to put in his best work. He has the better technical striking, assuming Price doesn't catch his chin early, and Cerrone has a submission game that could end the fight. With so much finish potential, this isn't likely to go to the cards.


E+ recommends: Money line lean on the fight ending inside the distance

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