1. 09-09-20 01:06 PM #1
    thomorino
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    Texans at Chiefs - Pick and Write-Up

    59-59 last year some bad variance early in the year.

    I like the over at 54.5. These teams played twice last year, with the Chiefs winning the second game by 20 and scoring 55, the Chiefs lost the first game 31-24, both went over the current total.

    The first game between KC and Houston last year was misleading because Mahomes was dealing with an ankle injury that limited his movement. Houston scored 31 both times they played KC last year, obviously with Hopkins who is now gone. Houston returns all 5 starting offensive linemen from last year and even though Obrien makes dumb situational decisions he's still a good play caller who will have extra time to prepare against a defense he saw twice last year and had success against both times. The Chiefs pass rush is solid with Clark and Jones, but their secondary is weak and starting corner Breeland is out. Even with Hopkins gone Stills, a healthy Fuller, and Cooks are a good receivers. Watson has played better in big games going back to college too.

    The Chiefs return all important players on offense and lost only 2 offensive linemen, but Houston's pass rush outside of Watt isn't strong and with Houston top corner Conley out for the year Houston's secondary is mediocre. Roby is a decent corner nothing special and Conley's back up Lonnie Johnson was horrible last year. With Conley out Houston will likely play more zone and Reid has been very strong with extra time to prepare, he saw Houston's defense twice last year. No fans should help the offenses too since crowd noise won't impact audibles or the snap count.
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  2. 09-09-20 01:11 PM #2
    stevek173
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    Nice write-up

    Ty for sharing, good luck
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  3. 09-09-20 01:19 PM #3
    johnnyvegas13
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    Agree these two teams over or nothing
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  4. 09-09-20 07:52 PM #4
    BeatTheJerk
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    Solid write-up & good pick.
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  5. 09-09-20 07:58 PM #5
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevek173 View Post
    Nice write-up

    Ty for sharing, good luck
    It will be interesting to see a football game with no fans, should be a unique game.
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  6. 09-09-20 08:52 PM #6
    juicername
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    How do you mathematically determine if you had positive or negative variance during a season?
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  7. 09-09-20 08:54 PM #7
    stackz125
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    Tease the over and KC
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  8. 09-09-20 08:57 PM #8
    jjgold
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    Over is a the best play
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  9. 09-09-20 09:37 PM #9
    Shark
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    What do those games last year have to do with this year?
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  10. 09-09-20 09:38 PM #10
    Booya711
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    Thanks clown....useless write up
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  11. 09-09-20 09:41 PM #11
    stake1
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    Never seen anyone other than the "noodle farm, two x chromosome special" go 59-59 and win a million bucks!
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  12. 09-09-20 09:41 PM #12
    thetrinity
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    This one will go over most in week 1 will be low scoring though
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  13. 09-09-20 09:49 PM #13
    KnuckleHeadz
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    Quote Originally Posted by thetrinity View Post
    This one will go over most in week 1 will be low scoring though
    I’m thinking most will be high scoring.
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  14. 09-09-20 09:50 PM #14
    jjgold
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    Marino best of luck this season
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  15. 09-09-20 09:54 PM #15
    Booya711
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    Guy never wins....luck doesn’t know Morino
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  16. 09-09-20 09:56 PM #16
    Buckandadime
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    Quote Originally Posted by stake1 View Post
    Never seen anyone other than the "noodle farm, two x chromosome special" go 59-59 and win a million bucks!
    Think he rounded up to 2 million..
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  17. 09-09-20 10:49 PM #17
    mjsuax13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Booya711 View Post
    Thanks clown....useless write up
    LOL. If that’s not a BOOYA! What is?
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  18. 09-09-20 11:10 PM #18
    Eddy Munny
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    Keep an eye on Brandin Cooks' availability. He's hardly been practicing.
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  19. 09-09-20 11:28 PM #19
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Booya711 View Post
    Thanks clown....useless write up
    Quote Originally Posted by stake1 View Post
    Never seen anyone other than the "noodle farm, two x chromosome special" go 59-59 and win a million bucks!
    Quote Originally Posted by Booya711 View Post
    Guy never wins....luck doesn’t know Morino
    Quote Originally Posted by Buckandadime View Post
    Think he rounded up to 2 million..
    Dumb shits.
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  20. 09-09-20 11:34 PM #20
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddy Munny View Post
    Keep an eye on Brandin Cooks' availability. He's hardly been practicing.
    He practiced on a limited basis twice this week, I think he is likely to play but get limited snaps, Texans have good depth at receiver with stills, Fuller, and Johnson is a good receiver out of the backfield also.
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  21. 09-09-20 11:43 PM #21
    Kermit
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    I am all over this Total over in about 10 different parlays and alt spreads.

    One play that I am also on pretty heavy is Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 49.5 yards. If he has 13 carries, he'll blow this away.
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  22. 09-09-20 11:52 PM #22
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    I am all over this Total over in about 10 different parlays and alt spreads.

    One play that I am also on pretty heavy is Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 49.5 yards. If he has 13 carries, he'll blow this away.
    If Chiefs are up big this has a shot but Chiefs are running back by committee and Reid hates to run.
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  23. 09-10-20 12:40 AM #23
    MinnesotaFats
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    Look for many many unders this year.

    It's different w the teams not in the traditional set up

    Expect a reversal to 50/50; 60/40 run heavy offenses and more emphasis on ball control as dogs offenses are used now to keep the favs premier players off the field

    This will be the new trend in NFL this year as lack of crowd noise would make NFL flag football for visiting teams w experienced QBs

    So many teams have loaded up w edge rushers and play nickle/ dime 75% now you started to see the trend appear a bit at the end of last year. Teams that can run and chew clock have become extremely effective at keeping games within 1 score...that doesn't bode well for overs.
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  24. 09-10-20 12:48 AM #24
    Unrivaled
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    I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with your reasoning. But don't you think the fact there was no preseason might play a factor here? And Texans losing an elite receiver?

    Just something to think about.
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  25. 09-10-20 12:55 AM #25
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unrivaled View Post
    I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with your reasoning. But don't you think the fact there was no preseason might play a factor here? And Texans losing an elite receiver?

    Just something to think about.
    Both teams return most of their offensive core from last year and I think defense will be very impacted by not having much practices in pads.
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  26. 09-10-20 06:07 AM #26
    Runeblade
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    I like it! Good luck!
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  27. 09-10-20 10:47 AM #27
    lakerboy
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    Put some more on over 53
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  28. 09-10-20 11:39 AM #28
    KnuckleHeadz
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    59-59 last year some bad variance early in the year.

    I like the over at 54.5. These teams played twice last year, with the Chiefs winning the second game by 20 and scoring 55, the Chiefs lost the first game 31-24, both went over the current total.

    The first game between KC and Houston last year was misleading because Mahomes was dealing with an ankle injury that limited his movement. Houston scored 31 both times they played KC last year, obviously with Hopkins who is now gone. Houston returns all 5 starting offensive linemen from last year and even though Obrien makes dumb situational decisions he's still a good play caller who will have extra time to prepare against a defense he saw twice last year and had success against both times. The Chiefs pass rush is solid with Clark and Jones, but their secondary is weak and starting corner Breeland is out. Even with Hopkins gone Stills, a healthy Fuller, and Cooks are a good receivers. Watson has played better in big games going back to college too.

    The Chiefs return all important players on offense and lost only 2 offensive linemen, but Houston's pass rush outside of Watt isn't strong and with Houston top corner Conley out for the year Houston's secondary is mediocre. Roby is a decent corner nothing special and Conley's back up Lonnie Johnson was horrible last year. With Conley out Houston will likely play more zone and Reid has been very strong with extra time to prepare, he saw Houston's defense twice last year. No fans should help the offenses too since crowd noise won't impact audibles or the snap count.
    NO FANS??? As usual Morongo is incorrect.

    Arrowhead Stadium will be filled at 22% capacity with 16,000 fans at the maximum being allowed into the building.
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  29. 09-10-20 11:45 AM #29
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by KnuckleHeadz View Post
    NO FANS??? As usual Morongo is incorrect.

    Arrowhead Stadium will be filled at 22% capacity with 16,000 fans at the maximum being allowed into the building.
    The environment will be the same as if their will be no fans, don’t care dumb shit.
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  30. 09-10-20 11:48 AM #30
    KnuckleHeadz
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    The environment will be the same as if their will be no fans, don’t care dumb shit.
    Write ups as good as that record you keep..

    How many cases on the books today counselor?
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  31. 09-10-20 11:49 AM #31
    chico2663
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    nice write up and gl.
    I see it a little different. O'brien finally has a workhorse back. I see him trying to run much more and shorten the game. Hope I'm right but you usually smoke me.
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  32. 09-10-20 12:00 PM #32
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by chico2663 View Post
    nice write up and gl.
    I see it a little different. O'brien finally has a workhorse back. I see him trying to run much more and shorten the game. Hope I'm right but you usually smoke me.
    I can see Houston wanting to run, but at some point kc likely gets ahead and Houston has to open up the offense. Johnson has had a lot of injuries the last 2 years, I don’t think Houston wants to run him into the ground.
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  33. 09-10-20 12:39 PM #33
    mjsuax13
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
    I can see Houston wanting to run, but at some point kc likely gets ahead and Houston has to open up the offense. Johnson has had a lot of injuries the last 2 years, I don’t think Houston wants to run him into the ground.
    Played 29 of 32 games for AZ the last 2 years. Saw his production decline with new HC and Drake. Texans will use him. Should be interesting to see how.
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  34. 09-10-20 12:58 PM #34
    thomorino
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    Quote Originally Posted by mjsuax13 View Post
    Played 29 of 32 games for AZ the last 2 years. Saw his production decline with new HC and Drake. Texans will use him. Should be interesting to see how.
    He was hurt constantly which is why they graded for Drake, being healthy and being on the field are not the same thing.
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  35. 09-10-20 01:05 PM #35
    BockyRalboa
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    I think with the "pandemic" and all, these guys are just itching to hit the field and go NUTS and score score score!! All of them, all the teams, I mean like caged animals going wild (no pun intended) OR will have aches and pains FROM being inactive for awhile IF they did not all keep up with proper exercise? Who knows? But I'm believing in ALOT of OVERS in week 1 of the NFL and the NCAA.
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