Current odds on Trump to win 2020 election ??

[rkelly110]

[MinnesotaFats]

With Teump leading in early voting AND polling ahead in MI and even in MN, you'd have to think both PA and OH along w 1 of IA and or WI are going red.

That flys in the face of the odds, but justifies the Bovada number.

The polls mean nothing when you call CA and NY voters, they skew 60% left, which by default will get you a close to 10% advantage.

[RoyBacon]

With Teump leading in early voting AND polling ahead in MI and even in MN, you'd have to think both PA and OH along w 1 of IA and or WI are going red.

That flys in the face of the odds, but justifies the Bovada number.

The polls mean nothing when you call CA and NY voters, they skew 60% left, which by default will get you a close to 10% advantage.

The Michigan early numbers are pretty shocking.

I think WI is in the bag for Trump. But he needs a AZ, MN, MI or PA to get to at least 269.

[homie1975]

The Michigan early numbers are pretty shocking.

I think WI is in the bag for Trump. But he needs a AZ, MN, MI or PA to get to at least 269.

Donnie takes AZ
Joe takes MI MN PA WI

Donnie takes some or all of those to court and loses.

My preduction based on an average of multiple state polls and Joe is leading on average by more than the standard MOE percentage.

[RoyBacon]

AZ and NC are the ones I'm worried about.

Trump wins WI easily.

It's turning out that the corridor from Michigan through WI and into Iowa is much stronger for Trump than 2016.

A shocking possible scenario??? Trump losses NC and AZ and wins WI, MI and PA. You heard it here first.

[ByeShea]

Donnie takes AZ
Joe takes MI MN PA WI

Donnie takes some or all of those to court and loses.

My preduction based on an average of multiple state polls and Joe is leading on average by more than the standard MOE percentage.

As data rolls in polling becomes meaningless. I would be very careful banking on poll averages. At a critical point just before ED in 2016, PA became a dog that wouldn’t hunt for Hillary. And she didn’t have any particular headwind except for maybe doing too little too late. Biden-Harris has been fully labeled as anti-fracking. Latest polls are (shocker) things are tightening in PA. Some people think that means it’s even, some of the more cynical think that means Trump +10. I just wouldn’t put money on Biden in PA without attractive odds.

[JohnGalt2341]

AZ and NC are the ones I'm worried about.

Trump wins WI easily.

It's turning out that the corridor from Michigan through WI and into Iowa is much stronger for Trump than 2016.

A shocking possible scenario??? Trump losses NC and AZ and wins WI, MI and PA. You heard it here first.

Trump is currently at +178 to +200 in Wisconsin right now. Do you think that price will change by election day?

I'm not trying to insult you or anyone else. I just want your opinion on this.

[ByeShea]

AZ and NC are the ones I'm worried about.

Trump wins WI easily.

It's turning out that the corridor from Michigan through WI and into Iowa is much stronger for Trump than 2016.

A shocking possible scenario??? Trump losses NC and AZ and wins WI, MI and PA. You heard it here first.

For optimistic Trump voters - NC looks like a Trump underperform so far. Have to be pleased with MI, PA, FL.

[RoyBacon]

Trump is currently at +178 to +200 in Wisconsin right now. Do you think that price will change by election day?

I'm not trying to insult you or anyone else. I just want your opinion on this.

Yea. I loaded up with max bets on WI, OH and TX.

I have mod bet of FL

I have Biden in AZ and NC

A few flyers, I have Trump in VA and MI. I got Biden in Iowa.


I don't think screen watching will be any help at all. Biden is -180 in WI he could be +280 and it would not mean a thing. These are like maiden horse odds on a tote board.

[homie1975]

AZ and NC are the ones I'm worried about.

Trump wins WI easily.

It's turning out that the corridor from Michigan through WI and into Iowa is much stronger for Trump than 2016.

A shocking possible scenario??? Trump losses NC and AZ and wins WI, MI and PA. You heard it here first.

Roy, Most state polls are now including what they under reported in 2016 polls: non college educated whites.

You can count on the WI and MI polls being much more accurate this time around.

AZ and NC have Donnie within the MOE and I believe they go Red. Same with FL and OH, and of course GA.

[RoyBacon]

Roy, Most state polls are now including what they under reported in 2016 polls: non college educated whites.

You can count on the WI and MI polls being much more accurate this time around.

AZ and NC have Donnie within the MOE and I believe they go Red. Same with FL and OH, and of course GA.

You may believe that and it may be true. I don't. I saw my wife answer Biden on a poll. She's scared to say Trump. Plus how do you handicap the enthusiasm gap?

If it rains or is a little cold Dems will stay home. Trump supporters will crawl over 20 miles of broken glass to vote.

We learned in '16 that Trump is different. I don't need to learn that lesson twice.

[vitterd]

You may believe that and it may be true. I don't. I saw my wife answer Biden on a poll. She's scared to say Trump. Plus how do you handicap the enthusiasm gap?

If it rains or is a little cold Dems will stay home. Trump supporters will crawl over 20 miles of broken glass to vote.

We learned in '16 that Trump is different. I don't need to learn that lesson twice.

Lmao. Scared to say trump. I haven’t seen a trump voter that can’t wait to tell you they are for Trump. Your “wife” is voting for Biden.

[JohnGalt2341]

You may believe that and it may be true. I don't. I saw my wife answer Biden on a poll. She's scared to say Trump. Plus how do you handicap the enthusiasm gap?

If it rains or is a little cold Dems will stay home. Trump supporters will crawl over 20 miles of broken glass to vote.

We learned in '16 that Trump is different. I don't need to learn that lesson twice.

Possibly, but look at the projections at BetOnline.

Voter Turnout in the U.S Presidential Election

08:00 AM

Over 149.5 million voters

-200

Under 149.5 million voters

+150

Voter Turnout in the U.S. Presidential Election

08:00 AM

Over 60.5 %

-135

Under 60.5 %

+105

I don't think those projections are good news for Trump.

[RudyRuetigger]

Possibly, but look at the projections at BetOnline.
Voter Turnout in the U.S Presidential Election

08:00 AM

Over 149.5 million voters

-200

Under 149.5 million voters

+150

Voter Turnout in the U.S. Presidential Election

08:00 AM

Over 60.5 %

-135

Under 60.5 %

+105

I don't think those projections are good news for Trump.

so, looks like global warming is helping you cukks after all

[19th Hole]

Lookin' like Pennsylvania will be the lynchpin state for the presidency this cycle.

[homie1975]

You may believe that and it may be true. I don't. I saw my wife answer Biden on a poll. She's scared to say Trump. Plus how do you handicap the enthusiasm gap?

If it rains or is a little cold Dems will stay home. Trump supporters will crawl over 20 miles of broken glass to vote.

We learned in '16 that Trump is different. I don't need to learn that lesson twice.

the democratic enthusiasm is more like existential. it is do or die to them. this will be the largest percent turnout by that party since 1908.

[pablo222]

Did you guys see these on BOL?

900997	Biden wins Election Dodgers win World Series		+120
900995	Trump wins Election Dodgers win World Series		+275
900998	Biden wins Election Rays win World Series		+325
900996	Trump wins Election Rays win World Series		+575

[RudyRuetigger]

Did you guys see these on BOL?

900997	Biden wins Election Dodgers win World Series		+120
900995	Trump wins Election Dodgers win World Series		+275
900998	Biden wins Election Rays win World Series		+325
900996	Trump wins Election Rays win World Series		+575

pablo why not just bet me on biden vs trump?

[RoyBacon]

Possibly, but look at the projections at BetOnline.

Voter Turnout in the U.S Presidential Election

08:00 AM

Over 149.5 million voters

-200

Under 149.5 million voters

+150

Voter Turnout in the U.S. Presidential Election

08:00 AM

Over 60.5 %

-135

Under 60.5 %

+105

I don't think those projections are good news for Trump.

Good turnout and yea, Biden will probably win.

The question remains are you betting +EV or you just betting for fun and hoping to get lucky?

Look at FL or WI where Trump is the dog. Plus money there is a gift. Look at OH and TX where Trump is -300ish. Those should be max bets no matter if you're a patriot or a socialist.

NC, AZ, MI and PA are not written in stone. Biden could win all 4 or go 0-4.

[JohnGalt2341]

Good turnout and yea, Biden will probably win.

The question remains are you betting +EV or you just betting for fun and hoping to get lucky?

Look at FL or WI where Trump is the dog. Plus money there is a gift. Look at OH and TX where Trump is -300ish. Those should be max bets no matter if you're a patriot or a socialist.

NC, AZ, MI and PA are not written in stone. Biden could win all 4 or go 0-4.

Every bet I make is because I believe I have +EV.

I wouldn't touch FL or WI at those prices right now. There might be some value betting on Trump in WI at +200 but I don't think it's a lot of value.

If I could get +150 for either candidate in FL I think I would take it. Right now, I would give a very slight edge to Trump in FL but I'm not going to touch it at those prices.

The other states you mentioned... I don't see any value in any of the current prices.

[Judge Crater]

Have to agree
Either candidate as a reasonable sized dog in Florida.
Would bet Trump as a tiny favorite in GA or TX.
Will probably bet some big favorites in Ruby Red or Dark Blue states the day before the election.

[pablo222]

pablo why not just bet me on biden vs trump?

Sure what you want to do?

[RoyBacon]

Every bet I make is because I believe I have +EV.

I wouldn't touch FL or WI at those prices right now. There might be some value betting on Trump in WI at +200 but I don't think it's a lot of value.

If I could get +150 for either candidate in FL I think I would take it. Right now, I would give a very slight edge to Trump in FL but I'm not going to touch it at those prices.

The other states you mentioned... I don't see any value in any of the current prices.

Yea FL is flipping all over the place. I got it + I think yesterday. Today its about a PICK. I love Trump in FL. But scared of AZ and NC.

As I told Homie. I don't need to learn that Trump under polls again. You can add 3 big points to Trump in battleground states. WI and FL easy.

The Mich, WI, Iowa corridor looks like something is happening. The more northeast you get over to PA not so much.

As shocking as this may seem Trump could be elected even with losing NC and AZ.

[Judge Crater]

Fun Times
Wake up, read electoral-vote.com, then Google "polls twitter"
Read top two links while discounting any poll that has a politicians name attached, says internal (D), internal (R) or Trafalgar
search for overlays

[Itsamazing777]

The Michigan early numbers are pretty shocking.

I think WI is in the bag for Trump. But he needs a AZ, MN, MI or PA to get to at least 269.

Michigan was never in doubt...

[vitterd]

Michigan was never in doubt...

What’s wrong with you? Have you ever made a correct prediction

[RoyBacon]

Yea there is something going on from Michigan to Iowa. Maybe a little MN in there too?

Funny election.

A month ago the Midwest looked lost and AZ & NC looked solid.

Now it's looking like The Man of the People could win the entire Midwest. Crazy.

[homie1975]

Yea there is something going on from Michigan to Iowa. Maybe a little MN in there too?

Funny election.

A month ago the Midwest looked lost and AZ & NC looked solid.

Now it's looking like The Man of the People could win the entire Midwest. Crazy.

Roy, What are your sources? Where's the heat map you're looking at? Fox news and cnn / msnbc are both cherry picking stuff to fit their own narratives. Eff those biased networks.

Where are you getting your info?

Not giving you crap - just trying to understand where your data is derived.

[RoyBacon]

Roy, What are your sources? Where's the heat map you're looking at? Fox news and cnn / msnbc are both cherry picking stuff to fit their own narratives. Eff those biased networks.

Where are you getting your info?

Not giving you crap - just trying to understand where your data is derived.

Everywhere.

I think the key to this election is figuring out what the under count really is and does it vary region to region?

If you don't believe in the under count, and some don't, then bet Biden in FL, OH even GA and Iowa.

You see republicans registered way more in WI and PA the last few months and you see the slightly surprising lead Trump has in MI and now it's time to buy a vowel and solve the puzzle.

I personally have studied the undercount and believe it to be 3.5% to 4% depending on state.

So FL Biden leads the polls by 1.7% In my formula, that's a rather easy Trump win.

[shocka1212]

Trying to throw a sizeable wager.. anyone know who is offering odds?

[ByeShea]

Where are you getting your info?

Check out Larry Schweikart on Twitter. He's definitely pro-Trump, but really puts out state-level numbers with explanation ... just checked his account, apparently IBD/TIPP national polling is Biden +2 (wasn't it Biden +12 a week ago?) He's talking mostly about FL today and PA, too.

I think one of the tips of PA is Obama made his first campaign stop there a few days ago (guy is really knocking himself out for his VP, huh? Wonder what the real story is) ... and that Bernie Sanders will be there Saturday. Again, the PA dog wouldn't hunt for Hillary in '16, kind of wonder if it won't for Biden, either.

And the fukkin' guy is in his basement all week. I think all these odds are going to shift in a big way before very long.

[RoyBacon]

Check out Larry Schweikart on Twitter. He's definitely pro-Trump, but really puts out state-level numbers with explanation ... just checked his account, apparently IBD/TIPP national polling is Biden +2 (wasn't it Biden +12 a week ago?) He's talking mostly about FL today and PA, too.

I think one of the tips of PA is Obama made his first campaign stop there a few days ago (guy is really knocking himself out for his VP, huh? Wonder what the real story is) ... and that Bernie Sanders will be there Saturday. Again, the PA dog wouldn't hunt for Hillary in '16, kind of wonder if it won't for Biden, either.

And the fukkin' guy is in his basement all week. I think all these odds are going to shift in a big way before very long.

The big move came after the last debate and Trump has nudged up a tiny bit since. Otherwise almost no movement the past few days.

This election feels like it should be a PICK. But the market usually knows better so we'll see.

[homie1975]

Everywhere.

I think the key to this election is figuring out what the under count really is and does it vary region to region?

If you don't believe in the under count, and some don't, then bet Biden in FL, OH even GA and Iowa.

You see republicans registered way more in WI and PA the last few months and you see the slightly surprising lead Trump has in MI and now it's time to buy a vowel and solve the puzzle.

I personally have studied the undercount and believe it to be 3.5% to 4% depending on state.

So FL Biden leads the polls by 1.7% In my formula, that's a rather easy Trump win.

i agree.

[RoyBacon]

I'm trying to keep a lot of powder dry for live betting.

Let's see those first reporting counties in FL. They were the early indicators in '16 that Hillary was in serious trouble.

If trump under performs or over performs in FL compared to '16, I think we will learn some valuable betting info.

[Judge Crater]

You are absolutely correct
Sumter County is the highest percentage of senior citizens in Florida. It also has a huge amount of early voting. There will be results available early.
In 2016 Trump won with 68.78% of the vote. I would guess that whatever percentage Trump is up or down from that is the percent he will be up or down with seniors nationally and especially in Florida.