[Gaze73]

Imagine taking a guaranteed 1/1000th of a payout instead of a 50% chance for a full payout.

[agendaman]

this is a problem i encountered in college when i was taking a course in game theory it is akin to the monte hall problem gonna look it up

[jjgold]

anyone that hedges is a dead loser sports betting

[SamsNCharge99]

i didn't have the million prior, so it's not like I'm losing a million if I'm wrong on the 50%

count me in for the chance for 1 billion dollars.....in dr.evil voice

[pologq]

that is an interesting problem to speculate

we should do it as a poll here

[RudyRuetigger]

Except your example isn't a math problem

I don't need a billion to live in a penthouse in some shithole like san fran/nyc


I already have everything I need...the million would just be extra toys

[Ian]

Meh.

If instead the question was $1 guaranteed or a 50/50 shot at $1k, everybody would take the shot at $1k.

On your example, even though the +EV is better on the latter offer, $1,000,000 is enough to live comfortably for the rest of a person's life without working. The functional utility of every dollar beyond that is less than the utility of the first million because it isn't needed for necessities or more immediate comforts.

[thetrinity]

a better question would be like 10000 and 1000000 or 0

I would take the million because thats enough you can turn it into something

[RudyRuetigger]

a better question would be like 10000 and 1000000 or 0

I would take the million because thats enough you can turn it into something

exactly


plus, a lot depends on your age/current job/where you live

[Runeblade]

Take the million. If you have a brain and I would like to think that most of us on here do, you can turn the million in many millions if you know what your doing. Why take a 50% chance on getting nothing. That seems absurd to me.

[RudyRuetigger]

expected growth vs expected value


https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...on-part-i.html

[KVB]

So wait, are you asking us to make $1 million bet?

At that point does the reward really matter?

They say you should write down your goals and look at them every day, for years I had a goal that I would make a $1 million bet on sports, looked at it every day.

Still trying to reach that goal 10 years later.

I don’t think it’s gonna happen.

[RudyRuetigger]

So wait, are you asking us to make $1 million bet?

At that point does the reward really matter?

They say you should write down your goals and look at them every day, for years I had a goal that I would make a $1 million bet on sports, looked at it every day.

Still trying to reach that goal 10 years later.

I don’t think it’s gonna happen.

the question is dumb

because it says 1 million FOR SURE....but the image says 80%

[jjgold]

You can’t win anything in life unless you take tremendous risk

[KVB]

..because it says 1 million FOR SURE....but the image says 80%

LMAO good catch.

Maybe it's $1 million for sure but it happens 80% of the time.

After all, I have many systems that work 50% of the time, every time

[Sam Odom]

thinking... the 80% is that 8 out of 10 people would take the 1M

[Gaze73]

A million can be easily spent if you want to live a little. Look at all the lottery winners. OTOH, A billion is basically infinite money for a normal person. You can buy multiple private islands or politicians with that kind of money. You can donate $10 million a year to whatever and still not run out of money for the rest of your life.

However, If you lose the coin flip you just keep living like nothing happened.

If you wanted to turn $1m into $10m by betting that would still be years of hard work.

[Gaze73]

thinking... the 80% is that 8 out of 10 people would take the 1M

Yeah of course it means that, dunno why people are confused here about that lol.

[RudyRuetigger]

Yeah of course it means that, dunno why people are confused here about that lol.

because it isnt fukkin stated that way



a new ivy league grad with a great job doesnt need a million


some posters dont need a million with their job/house/benefits/stocks

1 mil for my life is all i need


THANKS

[KVB]

because it isnt fukkin stated that way

It's a would you rather question.

I think it's implied for those who know the "would you rather" format.

That's not us Rudy, at least not until today.

[Sam Odom]

Sammy would take the 1M

ALL things considered

[mjsuax13]

I can make another million. I’ll take my chances on the billion.

[stevenash]

anyone that hedges is a dead loser sports betting

Have to agree with the bald one here.

[Runeblade]

You can’t win anything in life unless you take tremendous risk

Replace the word tremendous with calculated and then I can agree. There have been many who have risked much and failed as well. One must know of the consequences of failure. I started betting on sports about 4 years ago and consider myself a Novice. I must have lost 10s of thousands of dollars within that time span until now. I never thought of the consequences because I thought i was going to win a lot of money like every other dumb rookie. Now I take calculated risks.

[mjsuax13]

Replace the word tremendous with calculated and then I can agree. There have been many who have risked much and failed as well. One must know of the consequences of failure. I started betting on sports about 4 years ago and consider myself a Novice. I must have lost 10s of thousands of dollars within that time span until now. I never thought of the consequences because I thought i was going to win a lot of money like every other dumb rookie. Now I take calculated risks.

Calculated or strategic are the most appropriate words. Tremendous is the time/financial pieces of it.

[BigdaddyQH]

anyone that hedges is a dead loser sports betting

Spoken by one of the biggest LOSERS ever in sports wagering. JJ. Someone is going to have to shut you up. You are a gutless loser and you know it.

[RudyRuetigger]

Sammy would take the 1M

ALL things considered

sammy, we are old retired guys


well actually you are much older than me

[mjsuax13]

Spoken by one of the biggest LOSERS ever in sports wagering. JJ. Someone is going to have to shut you up. You are a gutless loser and you know it.

Happy Monday Sunshine. LOL.

[BigdaddyQH]

Replace the word tremendous with calculated and then I can agree. There have been many who have risked much and failed as well. One must know of the consequences of failure. I started betting on sports about 4 years ago and consider myself a Novice. I must have lost 10s of thousands of dollars within that time span until now. I never thought of the consequences because I thought i was going to win a lot of money like every other dumb rookie. Now I take calculated risks.

If you have to talk about how much you have lost, you DO NOT have it to begin with. Only a liar mentions totals. If you knew what you are doing (and it is obvious that you do not) you would know that the amount of the wager does not matter. It is the system that counts. I can guarantee you that the amount I have set aside for wagering is MORE that the total amount of money you have. I WIN and WIN on a consistent basis. The reason why I WIN is because my system is a tried and proven system over the years. Do I win the most money percentage wise, in a calendar year? No. Do I win consistently every year? Yes. 26 out of the past 27 seasons. That is how you make money in this game.

[Sam Odom]

sammy, we are old retired guys

We think differently than young folks

[mjsuax13]

If you have to talk about how much you have lost, you DO NOT have it to begin with. Only a liar mentions totals. If you knew what you are doing (and it is obvious that you do not) you would know that the amount of the wager does not matter. It is the system that counts. I can guarantee you that the amount I have set aside for wagering is MORE that the total amount of money you have. I WIN and WIN on a consistent basis. The reason why I WIN is because my system is a tried and proven system over the years. Do I win the most money percentage wise, in a calendar year? No. Do I win consistently every year? Yes. 26 out of the past 27 seasons. That is how you make money in this game.

Welcome to SBR Rune.

QH, post the plays then you big winner! Fraud.

[rm18]

IF the 1 million means you are set for life and don't have to grind a horrible job it may be a better decision. Obviously if you are making 6 figures or have a decent net worth you have to gamble I think though.

[KVB]

IF the 1 million means you are set for life and don't have to grind a horrible job it may be a better decision. Obviously if you are making 6 figures or have a decent net worth you have to gamble I think though.

Yes, yes and yes.

Like Sammy did, consider all things.

It's not like you are dipping into your own million to start with.

[mjsuax13]

IF the 1 million means you are set for life and don't have to grind a horrible job it may be a better decision. Obviously if you are making 6 figures or have a decent net worth you have to gamble I think though.

It’s true... $1 million would not change my life much. Just more cash to burn.

A billion... oh yeah, let’s party. I’d even throw Rudy $25 million just so he could have more time to bury some of the posters.

[pologq]

At this point a million would set my parents up for retirement very well with what they currently have and I would have to take it. It goes straight to them.

If I was alone, not 100% sure what I would do. Leaning toward the million though.