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I'm sure that was it, Lock. The best was a place with a stage where girls did dirty things and another was a place you sit in a barber like chair and these working girls came out one at a time showing themselves. It was a like a variety store. Shopping for your favorite flavor.
In an earlier post, I said it was a very safe bet the upper echelon within the major casinos are conducting closed-door meetings on how to survive and eventually thrive.
To that point, some may find this interesting. Just in the first half of April, MGM insiders have bought 492,152 shares.
No insider sales were on record from the last week of March to today, April 17 2020.
Some Vegas bears will spin this to fit their narrative. For example, they might argue the insiders are trying to artificially pump up the stock price for nefarious reasons.
I believe that in this particular case these insider buys are a bullish signal. I have my own reasons for this.
I realize what's taking place with MGM is just a snapshot. However, I think it's quite illuminating.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activi...sider-activity
Last edited by EVPlus; 04-17-20 at 07:53 PM.
What is your guess? MGM will take over most of the strip?
LOL. View is great from behind my gates here in Summerlin. Where did you live? Some dump by the strip? Gamble it all away? Vegas has been great to my family and we moved from Scottsdale. Another great place.Originally Posted by jjgold
I haven't researched the matter that extensively, although every corporation would love a greater market share. To them, and others like them, the only acceptable substitute for power is more power.
To add to what I stated in #212, I believe this particular case of buying indicates cunning optimism on the insiders' part.
They know what you, I, and some others here know...After Covid-19 is defeated (or at least controlled), the economy will begin it's climb upwards.
As people build their discretionary income (some never lost it) and feel reasonably secure, they'll inevitably want to engage in good old fashioned hedonism and debauchery. Vegas knows how to cater to these desires.
Last edited by EVPlus; 04-18-20 at 09:01 AM.
They recently unloaded properties.
Is JJgold gonna be right, will the entire strip crumble?
Macau has reopened its casinos, with some restrictions like 4 players per baccarat table, only half the tables are open, all patrons and staff must wear masks Etc.
I feel like Las Vegas is a different animal, 52 million people are packed into a Four Mile Strip every year. The strip would be a petri dish for the virus. MGM is talking about reopening properties on May 1st but my money is on late June. Even if you reopen the strip on May 1st, the question would be who will travel there? Only Americans? Travel bans in other countries will not be lifted and no one be will be able to travel to Las Vegas. Macau is different in that people from Hong Kong and surrounding cities will do day trips. Vegas doesn't make day trips very efficient or affordable.
well it's in the middle of the freaking desert
would still get weekend travelers from LA but of course it will be down quite a bit
Every disease in world is brought to Vegas by immigrants
It’s in a REIT. They still own 51% in a spin off company. They could unload though. That capital is probably how they are staying afloat.
Border jumpers
It will be the same as it usually is.
Vegas is a transit town. Every low life and loser thinks there going to make it big.
Clocked yes
How about Gritter ??
He lost 200,000 and most of it markers
i wouldn't say that... business travel/conventions are still being cancelled... when concerts/clubs/gaming floors get reopened they probably won't be jammed full.
will raiders games be sold out? will downtown be full of people with concerts? let's hope so
If no cure Vegas will be in $$$$ trouble
They do not have industry like every other City in World
vegas real estate/economy has a tug of war right now
1) layoffs/furloughs/unemployment with foreclosures probably coming by the boatload
2) retirees leaving high tax and bad politics states like california
my thought is #1 will drag prices down but not as badly as in 2009-2012 now that #2 is still happening
so many people just waiting for lower prices in nevada to get the F out of california
i hope the local whorehouses in nye county will drop the prices down a little, man they put a hurting on a cc.
Good points. The difference for #1 this time around is that there's a ban on foreclosures and evictions for the time being. Add in no gambling and that should allow people to stack a little money. That should delay the RE drop for a while at least. But once the protections are gone, I would think that people would start looking to sell their homes. Could be a huge buyer's market at that time.
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great post
people always think about the casino jobs that MIGHT be lost, but what about the construction jobs that WILL be lost... raiders stadium done, and these housing developments are stopped
Great point Mike. Construction provides a lot of jobs in Vegas. If that goes, the bottom should fall out.
Construction is ranked only 6th in terms of the number of jobs in Las Vegas/Henderson area. Highly doubtful Vegas will live or die based on that industry alone.
In thousands, not seasonally adjusted, as of March 2020:
leisure and hospitality 290
trade, transportation, utilities 177.3
professional and business services 150.2
government 110.4
education and health services 103.8
construction 75.2
https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.nv_lasvegas_msa.htm
Liesure and hospitality, no surprise, ranks first. No surprise there.
I don't see the hotels, casinos, night clubs, etc. being packed initially.
I suspect the most risk tolerant will venture in at the beginning. These are the people who live by the motto "Bad things only happen to others." Optimism bias.
The moderately risk tolerant and the risk averse will wait and see. Eventually, as Covid-19 becomes less of a threat, and as the hospitality industry make adjustments to provide an aura of safety, the public will return to Vegas.
There will always be an epidemic or pandemic. Through it all, one thing doesn't change: human nature.
in absolute terms that's 6th but the fluctuation is HUGE, in times like 2009 almost 100% of the construction workers were laid off
those construction workers also go to restaurants/stores/gas stations/etc so it's all intertwined
the unemployment rate in nevada became the worst in the nation in 2011... that was all housing/construction driven, travel was hardly down and casinos/government wasn't laying anyone off
Well, of course construction workers "go to restaurants/stores/gas stations/etc."in absolute terms that's 6th but the fluctuation is HUGE, in times like 2009 almost 100% of the construction workers were laid off
those construction workers also go to restaurants/stores/gas stations/etc so it's all intertwined
the unemployment rate in nevada became the worst in the nation in 2011... that was all housing/construction driven, travel was hardly down and casinos/government wasn't laying anyone off
But so do the folks in the 5 categories above construction in my post #232.
Furthermore, the events that took place around 2008 started with sub-prime housing loans.
What's happening now is pandemic driven. And the fed is much more aggressive in its assistance now. For example, a second $1200 stimulus check to those with income less than $75k is not off the table from what I've read.
Yes the fed is more aggressive but a second stimulus will only help temporarily. It doesn't solve the long term issue.
The reason construction jobs are important is because it signals growth. For construction projects to get off the ground, you need money flowing into a place.
If those projects stop, it signals that the money has stopped flowing. Similar to what it did in 2008-09. Couple that with the other industries struggling as well and a clearer picture begins to emerge.
My post #232 was a pushback to the premise:
"If that [construction] goes, the bottom should fall out."
post #231
Hopefully, I did this in a civil manner (although it can be challenging without voice inflection, body language, etc).
Well, Vegas didn't crumble to the ground after that.
Nevertheless, I won't ignore your statement "Couple that with the other industries struggling as well and a clearer picture begins to emerge."
This certainly makes the current crisis different from what happened in 2008.
However, it's important to remember the fed is prepared to make unprecedented responses to Covid-19. And it's not just the possibility of a second stimulus checks to individuals.
Published on 4/19/20, senators on both sides are working on a $370 billion deal in relief.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/19/mnuc...ess-loans.html
As Vegas and other cities make plans to slowly recover their economy, their immediate goal is NOT growth. It's to stop the bleeding. Growth is far away down the road.
Furthermore, scientists are working diligently to find a vaccine and a treatment for those who already are infected.
As the data comes in, it's becoming irrefutable that some people suffer mild or no ill effects with Covid-19.
There's also a rising anger among some who are locked down and do not have the luxury of telecommuting or being financially independent.With improved testing and physical distancing measures, the economy can, must, and will make steady progress. This will begin pre treatment and/or vaccine. It'll continue post treatment and/or vaccine.
The leaders in the state and federal level know this. Governors have begin talks on the best method to gradually open up the economy.
Last edited by EVPlus; 04-19-20 at 09:54 PM.
Very good post
There are always exceptions JJ. But it is what it is.
We both understand that.
I think you probably meant transient.
Maybe.
Correct Sol
i'm not sure how more free money means anything for housing prices... foreclosures are stopped anyway so it really doesn't matter for the next few months if people can pay their mortgage or not
Neither do I... A second stimulus of $1200 won't keep people in their homes nor will it have much affect on housing prices. Hell mortgages are usually much more than $1200.
Also, even if the economy comes back slowly, big corporates aren't keeping all those employees. Its unfortunate, but more than likely. Maybe, hopefully, our economy is thriving again in 2-3 years. In the meantime, people are going to hurt.
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