Corona...the math!

[Mike Huntertz]

The rate of increase is what to look for.

March 3rd 10 cases a day

March 17th 1750 cases a day
March 18th 2850 cases a day.
March 19th 4500+ cases a day.(posted 5000+ but it was changed)
March 20th 5600 cases
March 21st 4800+ cases.
March 22nd 9339 cases!!!
March 23rd 10168 cases.
March 24th 11,075 cases

March 25th 13,355 cases

March 26th 17,224 cases.......not what I was hoping for!

Very large increase in a day. 29%

Stay safe!

[PAULYPOKER]

Now the number of unconfirmed case that are truly Corona that has light symptoms or no symptoms I believe are very high (in the millions)............

[teecee]

Now the number of unconfirmed case that are truly Corona that has light symptoms or no symptoms I believe are very high (in the millions)............

So, at a minimum 116x greater. I just may chew my fingernails down to nubs.

[QuantumLeap]

Looks like the numbers are in early tonight. These should be the final numbers.

I've decided to include the UK since they are significant and we have a few UK posters here at SBR.

If anything good can be taken from the charts below it's that new deaths in 5 out of the 7 are not increasing exponentially or spiking. They are going up linearly. Italy's numbers are still below their peak for the 5th straight day.

The exception to this is the UK and France. Hopefully they will follow the others and not continue to spike up.

New cases

Country	03/21/20	03/22/20	03/23/20	03/24/20	03/25/20	03/26/20
Italy	6557	5560	4789	5249	5210	6203
US	4824	9359	10168	11089	13355	17224
Spain	3925	3272	6368	6922	7457	8271
Germany	2516	2508	4183	3935	4332	6615
France	1847	1559	3838	2448	2929	3922
Switzerland	1248	611	1321	1082	1020	914
UK	1035	665	967	1427	1452	2129

New deaths

Country	03/21/20	03/22/20	03/23/20	03/24/20	03/25/20	03/26/20
Italy	793	651	601	743	683	712
US	46	111	140	225	247	288
Spain	288	391	539	680	656	718
Germany	16	10	29	36	47	61
France	112	112	186	240	231	365
Switzerland	13	24	18	2	31	39
UK	56	48	54	87	41	115

[PAULYPOKER]

Now the number of unconfirmed case that are truly Corona that has light symptoms or no symptoms I believe are very high (in the millions)............


The fact we gave China a 3/16 of a mile head start in a 1/4 mile dragrace
and still blew them away well before the finish line
,,

all but confirms my belief..

[juicername]

You have confirmed cases that are waiting for outcomes......

Do you really think if the Recovered cases were much greater than the death rate
they would suppress these numbers?

You serious believe that?

Not saying anyone would suppress intentionally, but the people who recover without ever being officially tested are still unaccounted for by definition.

Your quoted numbers are indeed correct but do not tell the whole story, that's all I'm saying.

[goduke]

the political establishment is dem and rep


show me one republican that actually wanted trump, 0


bernie supporters should actually like trump except they dont work

otherwise they are the same

once trump is gone, i honestly wont vote

He won the republican nomination Rudy. He could of ran an independent. And the political environment is what you and everyone makes of it. If you choose to let two parties dictate what you do that’s fine. But maybe if you’re a strong willed enough person you don’t follow what a party tells you to.
What I would like to know is personally what has this President done that has strictly helped your life? I’m always curious about the blind devotion he gets it’s like Jesus Christ, people just believing in characters that don’t give anything to them. Please explain

[juicername]

Now the number of unconfirmed case that are truly Corona that has light symptoms or no symptoms I believe are very high (in the millions)............

Sorry didn't see this, I'm sure we agree on the big picture, I just didn't formulate my thoughts very well.

[lakerboy]

Looks like the numbers are in early tonight. These should be the final numbers.

I've decided to include the UK since they are significant and we have a few UK posters here at SBR.

If anything good can be taken from the charts below it's that new deaths in 5 out of the 7 are not increasing exponentially or spiking. They are going up linearly. Italy's numbers are still below their peak for the 5th straight day.

The exception to this is the UK and France. Hopefully they will follow the others and not continue to spike up.

New cases

Country	03/21/20	03/22/20	03/23/20	03/24/20	03/25/20	03/26/20
Italy	6557	5560	4789	5249	5210	6203
US	4824	9359	10168	11089	13355	17224
Spain	3925	3272	6368	6922	7457	8271
Germany	2516	2508	4183	3935	4332	6615
France	1847	1559	3838	2448	2929	3922
Switzerland	1248	611	1321	1082	1020	914
UK	1035	665	967	1427	1452	2129

New deaths

Country	03/21/20	03/22/20	03/23/20	03/24/20	03/25/20	03/26/20
Italy	793	651	601	743	683	712
US	46	111	140	225	247	288
Spain	288	391	539	680	656	718
Germany	16	10	29	36	47	61
France	112	112	186	240	231	365
Switzerland	13	24	18	2	31	39
UK	56	48	54	87	41	115

What is Germany doing that others aren't? The death count for them is very low compared to France with many more cases.

[PAULYPOKER]

Well this was it all along as all the naysayers here said we will ALL get it.......

[teecee]

Nvrmnd

[juicername]

What is Germany doing that others aren't? The death count for them is very low compared to France with many more cases.

"Christian Drosten, Institute for Virology director at Berlin’s Charité hospital, said that the low death toll from coronavirus is mainly down to extensive testing."The reason why we have so few deaths compared to the number of infected people is because we do a lot of laboratory diagnostics," Drosten said at a press conference on Thursday. In Germany, over half a million coronavirus tests are currently being carried out every week."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-why-germanys-death-toll-is-so-low-125400840.html

Might simply be a case of them catching a ton of mild cases that would go under the radar in most other countries.

Added another quote: "Making direct comparisons between national mortality rates can be misleading, not just because of recording lags and different methodologies on reporting cases and deaths, but also because of the extent of testing. The more aggressively a country tests for coronavirus, the more cases of mild infections will be found and recorded in the statistics, which pushes the fatality percentage down."

[PAULYPOKER]

You have 85,505 confirmed cases in limbo waiting for outcomes.......

There has been 2001 outcomes......

Outta 2001 outcomes there has been 713 Recoveries = 35.6% recovery rate..

The remaining outcomes are Deaths = 1288 = 64.4% death rate.....

The scariest stat of all is the US has surpassed China with breakneck speed.......!

China's Corona cases = 81,782 Confirmed

USA's Corona cases = 85,505 Confirmed


China has over one billion people or 400.35% more than the US..
China's population 1,439,323,776.......

The US population ONLY 331,002,651 million people.......

China's first corona patient was 11/17/19....

USA's first corona patient was 3/4/20......

Now, if those numbers doesn't scare the fukk out of you,,
you're brain dead!

Could someone in this thread please do the math on this?

You have confirmed cases that are waiting for outcomes......

Do you really think if the Recovered cases were much greater than the death rate
they would suppress these numbers?

You serious believe that?

Now the number of unconfirmed cases that are truly Corona that has light symptoms or no symptoms I believe are very high (in the millions)............


The fact we gave China a 3/16 of a mile head start in a 1/4 mile dragrace
and still blew them away well before the finish line
,,

all but confirms my belief..

kkkk

[QuantumLeap]

What is Germany doing that others aren't? The death count for them is very low compared to France with many more cases.

Excellent question. One stat I haven't been including here is the Recovery Rate. Germany has a Recovery Rate of 95.51% while the Death Rate is 4.49%. They have 5673 recovered and only 267 deaths.

[juicername]

If we use Germany's number as the "true" risk dying after contracting the virus (due to them catching most cases), we get 267/43,938 = roughly 0.6%, which also seems to be a regularly quoted number from experts as well. (fixed those numbers as I used daily increase first).

Now of course, only 5.6k / 44k of their confirmed cases have been resolved, so it's possible the percentage can get worse if most cases are in the early stages and might start dropping like flies as things progress.

[Mike Huntertz]

Almost 30% increase in a day for the US.....not good. Exponential again.

Looks like the numbers are in early tonight. These should be the final numbers.

I've decided to include the UK since they are significant and we have a few UK posters here at SBR.

If anything good can be taken from the charts below it's that new deaths in 5 out of the 7 are not increasing exponentially or spiking. They are going up linearly. Italy's numbers are still below their peak for the 5th straight day.

The exception to this is the UK and France. Hopefully they will follow the others and not continue to spike up.

New cases

Country	03/21/20	03/22/20	03/23/20	03/24/20	03/25/20	03/26/20
Italy	6557	5560	4789	5249	5210	6203
US	4824	9359	10168	11089	13355	17224
Spain	3925	3272	6368	6922	7457	8271
Germany	2516	2508	4183	3935	4332	6615
France	1847	1559	3838	2448	2929	3922
Switzerland	1248	611	1321	1082	1020	914
UK	1035	665	967	1427	1452	2129

New deaths

Country	03/21/20	03/22/20	03/23/20	03/24/20	03/25/20	03/26/20
Italy	793	651	601	743	683	712
US	46	111	140	225	247	288
Spain	288	391	539	680	656	718
Germany	16	10	29	36	47	61
France	112	112	186	240	231	365
Switzerland	13	24	18	2	31	39
UK	56	48	54	87	41	115

[QuantumLeap]

"Christian Drosten, Institute for Virology director at Berlin’s Charité hospital, said that the low death toll from coronavirus is mainly down to extensive testing."The reason why we have so few deaths compared to the number of infected people is because we do a lot of laboratory diagnostics," Drosten said at a press conference on Thursday. In Germany, over half a million coronavirus tests are currently being carried out every week."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-why-germanys-death-toll-is-so-low-125400840.html

Might simply be a case of them catching a ton of mild cases that would go under the radar in most other countries.

Added another quote: "Making direct comparisons between national mortality rates can be misleading, not just because of recording lags and different methodologies on reporting cases and deaths, but also because of the extent of testing. The more aggressively a country tests for coronavirus, the more cases of mild infections will be found and recorded in the statistics, which pushes the fatality percentage down."

This is why these numbers can be misleading and why I say not to trust in them completely. I think they can be used as a guideline as to the general overall situation.

I know New York has been testing more than other states. That could be why they have more cases reported and more deaths reported. Other states that don't test as aggressively could actually have more cases and deaths but the deaths are misdiagnosed as something else since not as much testing has been done in those states.

[RudyRuetigger]

Germany being Germany


Nothing knew

[lakerboy]

Excellent question. One stat I haven't been including here is the Recovery Rate. Germany has a Recovery Rate of 95.51% while the Death Rate is 4.49%. They have 5673 recovered and only 267 deaths.

As juicer pointed out above they are doing lots of testing as well so the numbers they have are assuring because they probably represent a more realistic expectation for deaths.

[RudyRuetigger]

He won the republican nomination Rudy. He could of ran an independent. And the political environment is what you and everyone makes of it. If you choose to let two parties dictate what you do that’s fine. But maybe if you’re a strong willed enough person you don’t follow what a party tells you to.
What I would like to know is personally what has this President done that has strictly helped your life? I’m always curious about the blind devotion he gets it’s like Jesus Christ, people just believing in characters that don’t give anything to them. Please explain

What has any president done for you?

You don't know because you stop at step 2, the guy (or woman) hired you (step 1) because STEP 2, the company was hiring

Grow some balls

[juicername]

As juicer pointed out above they are doing lots of testing as well so the numbers they have are assuring because they probably represent a more realistic expectation for deaths.

And at the same time, they might be too early in the infection stage with too many unsolved cases to really say anything.

All these statistics are a complete mindfuck.

[Mike Huntertz]

US is way behind with only over half a million tests in total. Germany has that many every week.

"Christian Drosten, Institute for Virology director at Berlin’s Charité hospital, said that the low death toll from coronavirus is mainly down to extensive testing."The reason why we have so few deaths compared to the number of infected people is because we do a lot of laboratory diagnostics," Drosten said at a press conference on Thursday. In Germany, over half a million coronavirus tests are currently being carried out every week."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-why-germanys-death-toll-is-so-low-125400840.html

Might simply be a case of them catching a ton of mild cases that would go under the radar in most other countries.

Added another quote: "Making direct comparisons between national mortality rates can be misleading, not just because of recording lags and different methodologies on reporting cases and deaths, but also because of the extent of testing. The more aggressively a country tests for coronavirus, the more cases of mild infections will be found and recorded in the statistics, which pushes the fatality percentage down."

[goduke]

What has any president done for you?

You don't know because you stop at step 2, the guy (or woman) hired you (step 1) because STEP 2, the company was hiring

Grow some balls

Most presidents haven’t done anything for me. They’ve put into actions that don’t help me for the most part. But I don’t come on here and really push any president. I think most of them don’t give a shit about us. The reason I asked you is because you just said you wouldn’t vote for anyone after trump. And you do push that you like him and what he does. That peaked my curiosity as to how you can like someone so much who hasn’t done anything for you. That’s why I asked. You basically answered my question with your response though....it’s blind ignorance. I’ll grow those balls can you learn how to be your own person and not a ignorant sheep?

[teecee]

And at the same time, they might be too early in the infection stage with too many unsolved cases to really say anything.

All these statistics are a complete mindfuck.

What I've said 15 times. Still, people need something to talk about. We will never know the truth.

[Mike Huntertz]

mindfuck is an under statement........and I usually like this sh!t!

And at the same time, they might be too early in the infection stage with too many unsolved cases to really say anything.

All these statistics are a complete mindfuck.

[juicername]

mindfuck is an under statement........and I usually like this sh!t!

I hear ya, we all have too much time on our hands all of a sudden and try to make some sense of this shit!

Appreciate your (and everyone else's) work in this thread.

[teecee]

What I've said 15 times. Still, people need something to talk about. We will never know the truth.

Let me just say that regardless of whether I agree with others or not, I enjoy reading every bit of what they post.

[ace7550]

What is Germany doing that others aren't? The death count for them is very low compared to France with many more cases.

Because the French (and the Spaniards) smoke like it's going out of style.

[Mike Huntertz]

Thanxs, tough times and it's not looking any better.
Stay safe!

I hear ya, we all have too much time on our hands all of a sudden and try to make some sense of this shit!

Appreciate your work in this thread.

[d2bets]

If we use Germany's number as the "true" risk dying after contracting the virus (due to them catching most cases), we get 267/43,938 = roughly 0.6%, which also seems to be a regularly quoted number from experts as well. (fixed those numbers as I used daily increase first).

Now of course, only 5.6k / 44k of their confirmed cases have been resolved, so it's possible the percentage can get worse if most cases are in the early stages and might start dropping like flies as things progress.

Death rate is not a fixed number. It is dependent on the quality of health care available.

[PAULYPOKER]

Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
You have 85,505 confirmed cases in limbo waiting for outcomes.......

There has been 2001 outcomes......

Outta 2001 outcomes there has been 713 Recoveries = 35.6% recovery rate..

The remaining outcomes are Deaths = 1288 = 64.4% death rate.....




Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
The scariest stat of all is the US has surpassed China with breakneck speed.......!

China's Corona cases = 81,782 Confirmed

USA's Corona cases = 85,505 Confirmed


China has over one billion people or 400.35% more than the US..
China's population 1,439,323,776.......

The US population ONLY 331,002,651 million people.......

China's first corona patient was 11/17/19....

USA's first corona patient was 3/4/20......

Now, if those numbers doesn't scare the fukk out of you,,
you're brain dead!

Could someone in this thread please do the math on this?




Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
You have confirmed cases that are waiting for outcomes......

Do you really think if the Recovered cases were much greater than the death rate
they would suppress these numbers?

You serious believe that?





Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
Now the number of unconfirmed cases that are truly Corona that has light symptoms or no symptoms I believe are very high (in the millions)............


The fact we gave China a 3/16 of a mile head start in a 1/4 mile drag race
and still blew them away well before the finish line
,,

all but confirms my belief..


Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
Well this was it all along as all the naysayers here said we will ALL get it.......

______________



So with all of what I said above:

Using the 1% death rate method for Corona.....

There are 129000 US citizens/Non Citizens who are in
Limbo infected with Corona....

Which means 43,347 or 35.6% of the infected either:
Don't know they have it,,,
or
have slight Symptoms self quarantine

or

just blowin it off..
or
have concerning symptoms but were denied testing and or a
hospital bed because they did not meet testing/sickness
level criteria.....

So in this effect IT's not bad IF you take social distances too
extremes measure.........



Red=BAD=dead or dangerous or dangerous behavior/blowing it off..
Judging by this forum if it's anything like the public majority in the US
it's the latter I'm worried about the most.....

Green=Great

Blue=Limbo stage of virus

Gray=Outcomes

Source>Live dashboard
Johns Hopkins University - ArcGIS Online for Johns Hopkins

[homie1975]

US is way behind with only over half a million tests in total. Germany has that many every week.

mike who is the babe in your avatar? i want to find that pic online and see it full size !!!

[Roger T. Bannon]

This is why these numbers can be misleading and why I say not to trust in them completely. I think they can be used as a guideline as to the general overall situation.

I know New York has been testing more than other states. That could be why they have more cases reported and more deaths reported. Other states that don't test as aggressively could actually have more cases and deaths but the deaths are misdiagnosed as something else since not as much testing has been done in those states.

Nobody knows what is going on. Nobody knows what is going to happen. 25% of people that get the test and have it will test negative. Most people that have it are not going to get tested. It is now spreading to Africa and Latin America where it has the potential to mutate and become more powerful.

This could wipe out 33% of the population. It could die out in a couple of months.

[Mac4Lyfe]

What is Germany doing that others aren't? The death count for them is very low compared to France with many more cases.

Seems like they are testing many more people thus catching it early. Way before that person infects 100 other people in the next week.

Because the French (and the Spaniards) smoke like it's going out of style.

Germans probably smoke more... way more.

[d2bets]

Nobody knows what is going on. Nobody knows what is going to happen. 25% of people that get the test and have it will test negative. Most people that have it are not going to get tested. It is now spreading to Africa and Latin America where it has the potential to mutate and become more powerful.

This could wipe out 33% of the population. It could die out in a couple of months.

Are you talking primarily about third-world countries, not the US? I mean, you're right in the sense that if people don't have access to health care the death rate would be massive. Hasn't ravaged Africa yet, but it will.