Rose Bowl betting line changes could spell disaster for sportsbooks
The point spread has been shuttling between 2.5 and 3 since it went up weeks ago. Favored Wisconsin draws enthusiastic support, giving 2.5 points. The Badgers are seen as the slightly superior team. Three points is the most common victory margin in nail-biters because it’s a field goal. Plus, any bettors impressed with the Big Ten so far — or skeptical about the Pac-12 after watching USC lose badly to Iowa and Washington State get bullied by Air Force — love getting Wisconsin at a low price.
But sportsbooks posting the full three are seeing Oregon bettors rush the counters enthusiastically. It takes Wisconsin by at least four to beat them at that price. Oregon’s balanced approach under coach Mario Cristobal appeals to professional gamblers and gives the Ducks a chance to compete with anyone.
Isn’t that a dream for sportsbooks? Enthusiastic split action?
Split action at a locked-in number is ideal. Sportsbooks collect the standard 10% vigorish from losers (bettors risk $11 to win $10 on every bet). They use the rest to pay the winners. An easy, no-risk profit.
But split action at different prices around a key number is a potential disaster. Let’s say half of a very large handle is on Wisconsin minus-2.5, and the other half is on Oregon plus-3. If the game lands exactly on three, all the Badgers bets win. But Ducks money “pushes” (ties) and is refunded. Nobody loses but the sportsbooks.
Obviously, books deal with this danger anytime a line moves. They can handle taking hits on lower-priority games, and it’s less likely to happen on non-key numbers. But if trends continue, a perfect storm is brewing in Pasadena.
Other marquee bowls this week that could see a key-number dynamic play out with half-point (or more) adjustments: Utah (currently minus-7) vs. Texas in the Alamo Bowl (4:30 p.m. Tuesday, ESPN), Auburn (minus-7) vs. Minnesota in the Outback Bowl (10 a.m. Wednesday, ESPN) and Alabama (minus-7) vs. Michigan in the Citrus Bowl (10 a.m. Wednesday, ABC).
n called vig or juice— usually refers to the standard 10% surcharge applied to straight bets against the point spread. Bettors go to the counter and pay as if they will lose their bet. If they win, the clerk refunds their initial stake, then counts out their profit.
In hockey and baseball, money lines are more commonly used because parity creates so many even matchups. Here, the vigorish represents the split between what bettors have to lay to take the favorite to win the game and what they receive by taking the underdog to spring an upset.
When the Kings lost 3-2 at Vancouver on Saturday night, bettors wanting the favorite had to lay minus-175 (risk $17.50 to win $10, or anything in that ratio). Bettors wanting the underdog were taking plus-160 (risk $10 to win $16, or anything in that ratio). With money lines, vigorish refers to that split.
Fogle writes for VSiN. You can up for a free daily email at VSiN.com/newsletter. [/COLOR]
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Rose Bowl betting line changes could spell disaster for sportsbooks
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