Since some folks think starting threads is some kinda pre-requisite to post here. Here is my "system", picker, predictor, spread calculator; haven't come up with a decent name for it. whatever you want to call it.
Ok, I post this weekly along with the results on a team forum, where I post regularly. Its a tool to help pick games, and at times when I have taken a break from betting, a surrogate to live through vicariously.
Its not reinventing the wheel, at its core its a YPP system with some additional twists I added. I made it probably 10 or so years ago. It has done well every year, I'm just not disciplined enough to bet every game (or at times believe its picks) and to follow it religiously, if I did I would win more often.
For the Season (since week 5, its based on the last four games):
ATS: 63-48-2 (57%) +10.2 units
SU: 65-48
Its had two losing weeks by win-losses ATS not by units (8 & 9) and one push week (7).
Its got some interesting picks this week including a game I like (Buffalo), either way take a look for yourself.
I tried to upload this as an image from excel, but it only allows to link to an image. Not sure how to post this or upload it so its in a more readable format. The "live spread" is the opening line, figured its the only fair way to measure its success as I could go line shopping and skew its results. And its also in line with its pick for the game.
Game Predicted Score Predicted Spread Live Spread Spread Dif Bears 21.01 -3.55 -1 2.55 Lions 17.46 3.55 Bills 21.64 -3.81 7 10.81 Cowboys 17.83 3.81 Saints 23.66 -2.49 Falcons 21.17 2.49 6.5 4.01 Packers 23.77 1.83 Giants 25.60 -1.83 6.5 8.33 Eagles 21.38 -2.10 Dolphins 19.28 2.10 7.5 5.40 Browns 20.33 -3.19 -1 2.19 Steelers 17.14 3.19 Buccaneers 27.49 -6.75 1 7.75 Jaguars 20.74 6.75 Titans 24.74 0.77 3 2.23 Colts 25.51 -0.77 Redskins 21.78 -0.98 10 10.98 Panthers 20.79 0.98 49ers 22.21 8.36 Ravens 30.57 -8.36 -5.5 2.86 Jets 30.80 -18.93 -3.5 15.43 Bengals 11.87 18.93 Rams 21.99 0.49 Cardinals 22.48 -0.49 3 3.49 Raiders 22.29 2.32 10 7.68 Chiefs 24.61 -2.32 Chargers 20.72 -3.74 -1 2.74 Broncos 16.99 3.74 Patriots 21.93 -3.80 -3.5 0.30 Texans 18.13 3.80 Vikings 26.29 1.72 3 1.28 Seahawks 28.01 -1.72