Does anyone take out some profit so the bets don't get out of your comfort zone or when it reached a certain percentage? Huey Mahl put out some a paper called the GREEN SHEET and I think when the profit was 20% he took the profit( he called it a dividend) and readjusted his bet size. Would like to hear some opinions.
-
-
Kelly is based on a bankroll amount that you get to set according to your comfort level, so it's not inherently irrational to pull money out. However, it isn't really following Kelly, because you could (probably) still comfortably lose the money you've made, plus your original bankroll. If not -- if you now consider some of your original stake, and maybe some of your winnings, to be not OK to lose, then you pull it.
I think you also have to distinguish between pulling the money out of the sportsbooks, and no longer considering it "bankroll" at all. You don't necessarily have to have your entire bankroll deposited at the books. If you're pulling to spend, that's one thing, but if you're pulling to put some of it into mutual funds, that might be another.
Having a fixed percent profit at which you pull out money seems unjustified.
Finally, you mentioned being uncomfortable not with the size of the bankroll but the size of the bets. If that's the issue, then you're no longer following Kelly, you're just being irrational.Comment -
Most bettors around here don't seem to follow a strict set of betting rules. I'm curious to hear what some of you guys that use the Kelly system start your bankroll with?Comment -
I bet anywhere between 50-300 in increments of 50 MOST of the time with a 10K mini BR
however I will bet 1K from time to time. people on forums talking about betting DIMES are most likely lying.
back to your question
when my mini BR gets around 13000 I skim 3K
Comment -
In poker, you want to buy in @ a No Limit cash game table with at least 100 times the big blind.
If my sports betting BR is $800.00, what should my single bet amount range be in order to maintain good bankroll management?Comment -
Unless you spend the money, you cannot take the money out of your net worth, which is what Kelly criterion is applied to. So, Kelly-wise taking the money out of your bankroll is an oxymoron. A reasonable approach to keeping the bet size in your comfort level is using fractional Kelly.Originally posted by dogmanComment -
i concur with data completly you have a handle on it.Originally posted by DataUnless you spend the money, you cannot take the money out of your net worth, which is what Kelly criterion is applied to.
So, Kelly-wise taking the money out of your bankroll is an oxymoron. A reasonable approach to keeping the bet size in your comfort level is using fractional Kelly.Comment -
I think the same rule applies in sports. 100 times the big blind means the big blind is 1% of your bankroll.Originally posted by TheLock
One unit should be 1% of your bankroll, and you shouldn't bet more then 1 unit per bet because you don't want to devalue your smaller bets. As they say you always lose your biggest bet... I've learned this one the hard way... make 5 bets one for 4 units and go 3 - 2 and LOSE money on the day. But anyway, a 2 unit max.
So your optimal bet size IMO would be $8.00 ... rounding to $10 would be acceptable. $15 max on plays you want to bet more on...Comment -
Um, no. This is retarded, especially in a thread about the Kelly criterion.I think the same rule applies in sports. 100 times the big blind means the big blind is 1% of your bankroll.
One unit should be 1% of your bankroll, and you shouldn't bet more then 1 unit per bet because you don't want to devalue your smaller bets.Comment -
That's nonsense.Originally posted by DataComment -
Data is correct. The actual formulation of Kelly assumes that you know your edge, that you know your net worth and that money has value insofar as it allows you to make more money, which means that defining this pile of money as "bankroll" and this pile of money as "not bankroll" doesn't actually have any meaning to Kelly. However, money spent, or money that needs to become spent, is money you do not have to use to make more money.
Realistically, almost no one actually applies strict Kelly or percentage Kelly the way it was intended. At the very least, we isolate a bankroll and treat it as if it is all we have, so losing that last dollar is infinitely bad, but of course it isn't and at some point if we get low enough we go all-in because we can no longer pretend the bankroll is our net worth.
However, Kelly also makes assumptions that when applied to sports betting are known to be false, one of which is that your wager size can become as large as you wish it to be. At some point, every strategy runs into limit issues that require accepting worse prices or playing at more books or attracting unwanted attention, or some combination of them. For that reason, in addition to daddy sometimes needing a new pair of shoes, my advice is: Take money out when you can no longer efficiently use that money, because you have enough money both at each book and overall to cover any bets your strategy calls for and the fluctuations that come from that.
There's no point in keeping money where it is not earning interest and potentially at risk if you can't use it, but another thing you can do with that extra money is "invest" it in season-long props and win totals, which often offer excellent value for those who can both understand them and afford the cost of capital.Comment
