1. #1
    Hman
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    Best Bets For Bucs-Panthers 🤑

    Best bets for Bucs-Panthers

    NFL Betting Insiders
    ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


    The 2019 NFL season is off and running, and we're here with a betting preview for Thursday's game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers.


    Preston Johnson and Mike Clay combine to offer their best bets.


    Note: Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Odds as of Sept 11.
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7, 49)

    Fortenbaugh: Let's begin by establishing the fact that I'll be opening several 6-point teasers with Carolina to commence Week 2. Dangle a 6.5-point home favorite on Thursday Night Football and I'll bite like a swordfish in the Gulf of Mexico.


    I don't expect much from Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay offense following the 10-point performance at home against the San Francisco 49ers this past Sunday, which featured just 295 total yards and four turnovers. The Buccaneers will struggle to protect Winston against Carolina's new-look front four and should focus on establishing a presence on the ground in an effort to keep Winston from biting off more than he can chew early in this matchup. Take note that the under is 13-6 in the past 19 meetings between these two teams when facing off in Carolina.


    Pick: Under 49


    Cam Newton under 34.5 pass attempts (-125)


    Clay: My model shows Carolina as a 5-point favorite and Caesars has them at -7. Why does that matter for this bet? Game script, of course. Last season, Newton averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game during eight losses and 29.7 pass attempts per game during six wins. In 2017, Newton fell short of 35 pass attempts in 10 of 11 wins (the one exception was a 35-attempt game). Expect Carolina to hold a lead throughout this game and for Newton to end up closer to 32 attempts.


    Mike Evans under 84.5 receiving yards (-110)


    Clay: Evans might seem like a strong "over" bet with Tampa Bay likely to trail throughout this game, but I prefer the other side. Evans is averaging 56.6 receiving yards per game in 10 career meetings with the Panthers and has been held under 85 yards during four of the past five. Evans is a near lock to be shadowed by James Bradberry, who had Evans' number in both 2018 meetings. Evans totaled 16 targets, five receptions and 64 yards in those two games.


    Cameron Brate first TD (20-1)


    Clay: Brate is one of the biggest long shots to score the first touchdown Thursday night, so he's certainly worth your attention. Brate has registered six or more touchdowns in each of the past three seasons and ranked no lower than eighth among tight ends in end zone targets during the span, racking up at least seven in all three seasons. Brate ran only three fewer pass routes than O.J. Howard in Week 1, which suggests he'll be a factor in Bruce Arians' offense. His history suggests that will especially be the case near the goal line.


    Ronald Jones II scores a TD (+280)



    Johnson: I was shocked to see a price this high for Jones to score a touchdown. Arians was gushing over Jones' performance against the 49ers this past Sunday, saying via the team's website: "I don't know if [his hand] could've gotten any hotter unless he [would have] run through the last one and scored a couple times."


    What appeared to be a running back by committee situation in Tampa Bay seems to be clearing itself up, Jones got more volume and was more efficient than Peyton Barber, and with Arians' blessing it's safe to assume he's going to be their No. 1 guy going forward. Jones rushed 13 times for 75 yards and added a reception for 18 more.


    At +280 we need Jones to score a touchdown only 26.3% of the time to break even on our proposition, and my projection that has him splitting touches with Barber has him scoring 29.1% of the time. The upside for Jones is certainly evident, and a cautious bump in volume for him projects his touchdown percentage to be closer to 35%. Winston certainly didn't look great in Week 1, so with the anticipation of a more reliant running game focused on utilizing Jones, we have to take the +280.

  2. #2
    gauchojake
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    I stopped at I'll be opening several 6 point teasers with Carolina...
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: pinnacle420

  3. #3
    swordsandtequila
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    I stopped at I'll be opening several 6 point teasers with Carolina...
    Beat me to it

  4. #4
    gauchojake
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    I should get a job at ESPN and teach these guys how break even.

  5. #5
    swordsandtequila
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    Best bet? Wait until tomorrow.

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