1. #1
    veriableodds
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    Any thoughts on these NCAAF wk#1 PICKS???

    would like suggestions, comments, or concerns
    massachusetts/+14.5
    oklahoma state/-14
    nc state/-17
    akron/+16.5
    georgia state/+25.5
    eastern michigan/-5.5
    north carolina/+7.5
    syracuse/-17
    boise state/+5

  2. #2
    A Quant
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    Massachusetts, Oklahoma State, NC State, North Carolina, Syracuse, and Boise all have new quarterbacks.

    That isn't easy to handicap the very first game of the season.

    Making it tougher-- All but NC State will be playing away from home.

  3. #3
    veriableodds
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    I see your point, never took stock in the injury replacement theory. When one man sits another takes over
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  4. #4
    BigdaddyQH
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    A couple of things to consider here. UMass and Akron are playing Big 10 teams who'se Head Coaches should have been fired after last season, and who probably will be fired if they do not show drastic improvement this season. Oklahoma is playing a team that may win just 1 game.

    I also really have serious doubts about taking a Middle of the road MAC West team on the road and giving 5.5 points. I do like Boise State getting so many points. Every game for Boise State is important because they are trying for the Group of 5 spot in this season's Cotton Bowl and overall record counts. Florida State is just trying to get onto a Bowl game. ANY Bowl game.

  5. #5
    KVB
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    Careful veriableodds, that BigDaddy guy does not bet and lies about bets he claims to make. He repeats others as if it's his own advice.

    Just letting you know.

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  6. #6
    KiDBaZkiT
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    I think its funny people talk shit about pre season nfl and then get gung ho for college week 1. Week 1 NCAAF is the shittiest football betting weekend of every year. Wtf do you know about some kids that have been getting drunk and raping girls all summer?

  7. #7
    veriableodds
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    All great points. These points can be argued till end of football it looks like. Mostly my picks are value the dogs are getting more points then they deserve, also the opponents they have are very equal in rankings. The favorites should win by a larger margin then what the line is, and the opponents are just that bad with huge rank gaps. Football is just volume for me, I see it I invest overall including nfl total wagers only hover around 5-6% of my yearly investment/bottom line total. Not worth my time doing countless research on reports, nor chasing better lines for not even extra quarter% a year

  8. #8
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Careful veriableodds, that BigDaddy guy does not bet and lies about bets he claims to make. He repeats others as if it's his own advice.

    Just letting you know.

    You have until August 30th to accept my challenge or forever be known as a Chicken S**t. Keep this up and you will be a very sorry arse hole. You coward. Your arse is MINE when the football season starts. One way or another.

  9. #9
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by veriableodds View Post
    All great points. These points can be argued till end of football it looks like. Mostly my picks are value the dogs are getting more points then they deserve, also the opponents they have are very equal in rankings. The favorites should win by a larger margin then what the line is, and the opponents are just that bad with huge rank gaps. Football is just volume for me, I see it I invest overall including nfl total wagers only hover around 5-6% of my yearly investment/bottom line total. Not worth my time doing countless research on reports, nor chasing better lines for not even extra quarter% a year
    So what you are saying is that yuo do not wager a lot of money on these games. Nothing wrong with that. Better than the Chicken S**t KVB, who NEVER wagers on games but likes to make people think he does.

  10. #10
    CJ
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    Too much volume, I've had decent success limiting my NCAAF wagering to 5 games per week, max. I'll get my list, sometimes bet all 5, sometimes just pick the top 2. Nine games in a week with a ton of variables and unknowns is rolling the dice a bit too much.

    Best of luck with whatever games you go with though.

  11. #11
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by veriableodds View Post
    would like suggestions, comments, or concerns
    massachusetts/+14.5
    oklahoma state/-14
    nc state/-17
    akron/+16.5
    georgia state/+25.5
    eastern michigan/-5.5
    north carolina/+7.5
    syracuse/-17
    boise state/+5
    no one knows itís all random

    college kids????


    How could anyone know anything about these kids?

  12. #12
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    So what you are saying is that yuo do not wager a lot of money on these games. Nothing wrong with that. Better than the Chicken S**t KVB, who NEVER wagers on games but likes to make people think he does.
    you better watch your ARSE

  13. #13
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    you better watch your ARSE
    C'mon Big Bear, nobody gives a shit what BigDaddy says.

    I don't read his posts,just skip over them, it's always the same shit and he knows if he wants my attention he has to answer in just one of the many threads he was buried, but he ran away from that challenge. So need for me to read about how he wants to kick some random poster's "arse."

    It got so bad we had to ease up on him, but it's his own fault for lying about bets he said he made and won, in the Think Tank of call places...

    I'm just one of many that buried him there but every now and then the guy fixates on me, thinking somehow he's going to get his integrity back.

    Even Sammy trolled him good a few days ago.

    Poor BigDaddy, buried in one thread after the next. Does he still think we can't say SHIT in the Forum? Does he still use the asterisk?


  14. #14
    veriableodds
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    no one knows it’s all random

    college kids????







    How could anyone know anything about these kids?




    True this pretty much can be said for all sports before the season begins. I use models, rankings and variety of other factors to come up with conclusion/value at least that's how I do it. Unfortunate I use the previous years of stats for it which leads to error sometimes

  15. #15
    A Quant
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    Quote Originally Posted by veriableodds View Post
    I see your point, never took stock in the injury replacement theory. When one man sits another takes over
    I don't think its "injury replacement"-- as a bettor, how do you quantify the value of a kid who has never taken a single snap?

    Listen, I hope you kill it-- but I avoid those situations like Big Daddy's wife avoids his dick.

    I guess it comes down to how you bet-- do you create your own set of numbers and look for the deviation from what your book is offering, or are you more intuitive?

  16. #16
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Quant View Post
    I don't think its "injury replacement"-- as a bettor, how do you quantify the value of a kid who has never taken a single snap?

    Listen, I hope you kill it-- but I avoid those situations like Big Daddy's wife avoids his dick.

    I guess it comes down to how you bet-- do you create your own set of numbers and look for the deviation from what your book is offering, or are you more intuitive?
    Solid post and even if he's more intuitive he can still try to make his own set of relative numbers. It's about tracking those bets and why you made them.

  17. #17
    veriableodds
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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ View Post
    Too much volume, I've had decent success limiting my NCAAF wagering to 5 games per week, max. I'll get my list, sometimes bet all 5, sometimes just pick the top 2. Nine games in a week with a ton of variables and unknowns is rolling the dice a bit too much.

    Best of luck with whatever games you go with though.


    True again all valid points, I love volume as far as (cfl-nfl-ncaaf) goes. Underneath is a prime example of bias dog betting and why I prefer volume, over bias.

    /cap the card for the day 5 games are a look
    /after picking out what I see as the best value and closest games with the highest % of winning, I pick top 3 because the other 2 the gaps and variables are to high so I scratch them
    / day ends I go 1/3
    /check the other larger +lines that were on my list and they both won
    arguments can be made for both sides but I like volume

  18. #18
    veriableodds
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Quant View Post
    I don't think its "injury replacement"-- as a bettor, how do you quantify the value of a kid who has never taken a single snap?

    Listen, I hope you kill it-- but I avoid those situations like Big Daddy's wife avoids his dick.

    I guess it comes down to how you bet-- do you create your own set of numbers and look for the deviation from what your book is offering, or are you more intuitive?


    Strictly a stats , value, bias guy.

    I remember that qb from alabama , never took a snap b4 either than what happened?? Then again don't they have a 5 million dollar recruiting program

  19. #19
    KVB
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    Yeah I'll approach with volume as well.

    Will probably post a a ton of plays some just value plays but we need about 4 games to go off before we can really get into the competitive market.

    I've already begun accumulating these...

    Date NCAAF UPSET Basket
    133 29-Aug UCLA +140
    137 FL INT +135
    147 30-Aug UTAH ST +150
    193 31-Aug SMU +140


  20. #20
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Quant View Post
    I don't think its "injury replacement"-- as a bettor, how do you quantify the value of a kid who has never taken a single snap?

    Listen, I hope you kill it-- but I avoid those situations like Big Daddy's wife avoids his dick.

    I guess it comes down to how you bet-- do you create your own set of numbers and look for the deviation from what your book is offering, or are you more intuitive?
    Are you begging to get your worthless arse kicked? Because if you are, I will more than gladly oblige you. You are a disgrace to this site. A total meaningless disgrace.

  21. #21
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Yeah I'll approach with volume as well.

    Will probably post a a ton of plays some just value plays but we need about 4 games to go off before we can really get into the competitive market.

    I've already begun accumulating these...

    Date NCAAF UPSET Basket
    133 29-Aug UCLA +140
    137 FL INT +135
    147 30-Aug UTAH ST +150
    193 31-Aug SMU +140

    You mean you have already started to cheat on the lines, right you lying arsehole. UCLA is +135 at 5 Dimes and +133 at Pinny. These are the off site books that you arseholes use. Florida International is +110 at 5 Dimes. ou are such a desperate fool that you have to try and post lines that are not even close to those available. Now I fully epect to read a post from you saying that you got these lines at some other book. that is the way you liars work. once again I have kicked your worthless arse. Get used to it. it will happen a lot this season.

  22. #22
    veriableodds
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Yeah I'll approach with volume as well.

    Will probably post a a ton of plays some just value plays but we need about 4 games to go off before we can really get into the competitive market.

    I've already begun accumulating these...

    Date NCAAF UPSET Basket
    133 29-Aug UCLA +140
    137 FL INT +135
    147 30-Aug UTAH ST +150
    193 31-Aug SMU +140


    ucla like the pick cinci looked unstable till over mid season
    fl int 8 ranks better great value
    Utah state actually 30 ranks better superior
    smu very close again they have a chance

    when doing these games, and its only my personal preference , I never bet against a team ranked in the top 55. Just me got burned many times trying, oooh those days

    like your picks nice work takes dedication to spill a list

  23. #23
    KVB
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    If you click the link of the UCLA pick it will take you to the original post of the plays, showing when I bought them and this first one shows some reasoning behind that strategy.

    I will track all the plays like this, but separating the strategies, using a couple of different Funds. Last year was a solid year, we are expecting more of the same with some them.


  24. #24
    trytrytry
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    like your idea on Syracuse -17 3* play of the week
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  25. #25
    veriableodds
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    So what you are saying is that yuo do not wager a lot of money on these games. Nothing wrong with that. Better than the Chicken S**t KVB, who NEVER wagers on games but likes to make people think he does.
    Think I remember you duel him to a contest. Looks like you do your research when handicapping games. Not sure you use stats and other ranking type factors to figure games out, but most of us seem to. Solution would be simple, whatever sports the contest is for has a time frame. So he posts his picks in his picks form that's your time frame and you have his picks. You know what your picks are as well, take his top picks against yours. This avoids confrontations and you can find who is the better picker??

  26. #26
    spro23
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    florida state will crush boise. boise state all new offense with young/ new players.

  27. #27
    49er41580
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    Ga tech ml

  28. #28
    veriableodds
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    Quote Originally Posted by spro23 View Post
    florida state will crush boise. boise state all new offense with young/ new players.
    8/31 Boise St at Florida St Boise St No Odds No Odds No Odds 32.6% 25.22 55.20
    Florida St No Odds No Odds No Odds 67.4% 29.98

  29. #29
    veriableodds
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    Quote Originally Posted by 49er41580 View Post
    Ga tech ml

    If you like that route I would take the over

  30. #30
    JacketFan81
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    Quote Originally Posted by 49er41580 View Post
    Ga tech ml
    Even I wouldn't take that one.

  31. #31
    veriableodds
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    Totals have been out a spell now. I like totals have looked at card a few times over and dont see any i like. Final list for week1

    gl

  32. #32
    sandman0713
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    i can tell u that oklahoma state has had the hawaii transfer and a new kid fighting for qb. both of them are a pretty good jump forward from cornholio last season. they will have a ton of weapons to spread the ball around to as well...almost everyone back. will be very good on that side. they say every year the d will be better...but i have yet to see it. should be a high scoring game.

  33. #33
    pavyracer
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    Too many games to bet. Focus on the best 2 and parlay them for the max. You can't win betting a dozen games 1st week. The juice will kill you.

  34. #34
    veriableodds
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Too many games to bet. Focus on the best 2 and parlay them for the max. You can't win betting a dozen games 1st week. The juice will kill you.

    I understand, and this is great advice. My situation is the complete opposite, I am seeking volume to add to my bottom line(combined football cfl, nfl, ncaaf, totals ) for me doesn't touch 5% of my yearly # of wagers. looking for a breakout type situation which is why I seek volume , like the flipping coin 1000 x you will have streaks of possibly 100 in a row on just one side. Once a breakout hits , I just use that profit and employ it into a even more strict money management system.

  35. #35
    Gonad
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    KVB, could you explain your logic behind the UCLA pick? I'm on UC -3 like a fat kid on cake, but always respect your opinion; if you can save me a few bucks in the process, all the better. Thanks!

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