1. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    This couldn't be more wrong.

    I can break the banks of bettors who tail me just by having a winning streak. The psychology goes to shit for many reasons as everyone is different, and they inevitably bet more for the eventual losers that come out.

    Further, understanding psychology can help you gain expected value.

    The true winning professional sports bettor more likely has a major in psychgology and a minor in math rather than the other way around.

    I've built my career around that all important understanding of psychology, the math is automatic, malleable and well known.

    It's the psychology that separates the long term winners and anyone with a chance at that from all others who try, not the math.

    Real talk.



  2. #37
    KVB
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    It's true, you've heard that some people just don't have what it takes, or that they aren't built for it, or that some can never overcome the obstacles to gambling.

    Only a small portion of that has to do with math and creativity...which are very important.

    The rest has to do with addiction, destructive behavior and tendencies, lack of patience, discipline, willpower and balance, etc.

    All psychological issues that can be dealt once they've been addressed, but not everyone can deal with them.

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  3. #38
    BeYourself
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    It's true, you've heard that some people just don't have what it takes, or that they aren't built for it, or that some can never overcome the obstacles to gambling.

    Only a small portion of that has to do with math and creativity...which are very important.

    The rest has to do with addiction, destructive behavior and tendencies, lack of patience, discipline, willpower and balance.

    All psychological issues that can be dealt once they've been addressed, but not everyone can deal with them.
    Amen.this what im trying to tell people around me and on this forum.

  4. #39
    KVB
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    Everyone is different in psychology and mathematical ability, and it makes a difference, but the math can be taught. It's teaching to and adhering to the psychology that allows you to adhere to the math.

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  5. #40
    TommieGunshot
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    It takes very little understanding or psychology to win money betting with a positive advantage...
    This couldn't be more wrong.

    I can break the banks of bettors who tail me just by having a winning streak. The psychology goes to shit for many reasons as everyone is different, and they inevitably bet more for the eventual losers that come out.
    The correct bet size is based on the math and probabilities. Failure to make the correct bet size is a failure in the math.


    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Further, understanding psychology can help you gain expected value.
    Could you provide examples of this?

  6. #41
    jjgold
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    Many say if you wanna make money gambling donít gamble

  7. #42
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    The correct bet size is based on the math and probabilities. Failure to make the correct bet size is a failure in the math...
    This is exactly why it was wrong and emphasizes my point. For just one type of example of many different types examples, a bettor can know his probabilities and the "correct" bet size, and still go on tilt.


    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    ...Could you provide examples of this?
    If you can assess, identify, and quantify motivations then you can provide your own examples. Start with the NFL, then you'll see. Better to teach a man to fish, than to just feed him for a day.

    Another road to go down is based on the market itself. Remember, it might feel like it, but it's not always us against the books. It's us against each other, each bettor vs the average, or summation of the marketplace.

    Understanding the psychology of bettors and betting will help you gain an edge over that very marketplace. You can understand the market behavior and help it guide your decisions in handicapping.

    You will find edges and some positive expected value going down both of those roads.

    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    ...No amount of understanding or psychology can help someone win when betting against a negative advantage.
    I agree here, but it can help the bettor turn the tide of the advantage if used in a relevant way.


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  8. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    This is exactly why it was wrong and emphasizes my point. For just one type of example of many different types examples, a bettor can know his probabilities and the "correct" bet size, and still go on tilt.
    Which brings us right back to the formula - Follow the math and earn money. Don't follow the math, don't win money (and probably lose money). Perhaps the reason +95% of people lose money gambling is because +95% of people have their psychology all messed up. Not anything I need to concern myself with.
    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    If you can assess, identify, and quantify motivations then you can provide your own examples. Start with the NFL, then you'll see. Better to teach a man to fish, than to just feed him for a day.
    But if instead I assess, identify, and quantify the correct probabilities (for example the probability the Packers beat the Bears), the "motivations" add absolutely nothing.

  9. #44
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    Which brings us right back to the formula - Follow the math and earn money. Don't follow the math, don't win money (and probably lose money). Perhaps the reason +95% of people lose money gambling is because +95% of people have their psychology all messed up...
    Yeah, it wasn't a hard jump to make, glad you see it. You were starting to worry me because I know you know better.

    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    ...But if instead I assess, identify, and quantify the correct probabilities (for example the probability the Packers beat the Bears), the "motivations" add absolutely nothing.
    It's all about assessing the relevant factors to stay ahead of the market. If you are beating the market already, then adding relevant assessments of, for one example motivation, will improve your edge.

    If you are losing to the market, adding those adjustments could make you profitable or help the method to lose less.

    This is what I meant when I said expected value could be found there. In that sense I have given the Forum a gem but it will take dedicated, knowledgeable work to polish it.

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  10. #45
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    I do wonder now if a roulette player were to change their psychology, would they be able to change from a losing player to a winning one?

  11. #46
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    I do wonder now if a roulette player were to change their psychology, would they be able to change from a losing player to a winning one?


    Well, he could go from a losing player to losing worse or faster. And if he can go one direction, he can always go the other. Unfortunately, with roulette he's only dealing with his own psychology and can't alter his assessment of the odds. He can't change is probabilities.

    With sportsbetting we're dealing with a lot more diversity and different groups making up the market psychology wise and we can also use it to improve our assessment of the odds being hung.

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  12. #47
    Dr.Gonzo
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    I do wonder now if a roulette player were to change their psychology, would they be able to change from a losing player to a winning one?
    No. The one way I am aware of to beat roulette is find a bias on the wheel and exploit it.

  13. #48
    funnyb25
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    Thanks bro
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  14. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    I do wonder now if a roulette player were to change their psychology, would they be able to change from a losing player to a winning one?
    In roulette its not gonna work.If you play fairly,-90 per cent of your winings will depend on luck.

  15. #50
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeYourself View Post
    I was inspired to write this post spontaneously this morning after accidental meeting with one of my friends I have not seen him in 2 years.The guy was telling me that he is depressed because last week he lost 2 grand and now its gonna take him 5 months to repay his credit card.To be honest,pitiful amount...but the guy is depressed.I did not feel sorry for him,because he always said that he knows everything about sports hes betting on and knows where to find up- to -date stats.In the past,on my advice that there is more to betting than just knowledge and stats he was just laughing. So,after i got home i decided to register here and write this so -called article to help new bettors,losing bettors and provide some useful information for a long time degens.
    This post will be divided in 3 sectionsreparation,betting and aftermath.


    Section 1.Preparation or how I call it for myself - "soulsearching".
    Before you start making deposits,researching sports,planning betting units,etc, - you have to ask yourself 2 questions.
    Question number 1:Why I am betting?So stupid question you will say.Of course to win money to pay rent,buy gifts for my girlfriend,travel,enjoy life....Obvious,but wrong answer.The right answer is to change your life.To get out of vicious cycle of living from paycheck to paycheck,to get out of debt,to get education,etc...It should be something to change your life globally in a positive way.This is very important because it will play a MAJOR role in your future winning or losing.Because as everybody knows,betting comes with emotional ups and downs,financial loses,conflicts with people around you,etc,but if you know why you are betting - it eliminates and softens all negative stuff which comes with betting and keeps you emotionally stable and coldblooded when you make picks and decisions.


    Question number 2.I would say its more rhetorical question,just to take a deep thought.For example,how come,people in England crazy about their sports,know everything about soccer,bet and still 95 per cent of them lose in a long run?!!What,they are stupid or dont know how to bet?all of them are hotheads?!!i dont think so...after many years of thinking and researching I came to conclusion that there is more to betting .
    Before you decide to make your first bet,you should understand that there are 4 sides to betting:
    - emotional;
    - psychological;
    - existential;
    - physical.
    If,even one side is not working in your persona,-you will be a loser in a long run.Go get a second job,ask for an overtime or simply get wasted at a pub with the money you intended to deposit to your betting account.Dont get me wrong,you will win sometimes,even go on a winning streaks,but you will not be able to quit your everyday slavery job and start living off sports betting.
    REMEMBER:Betting success or lack of it is reflection of your emotional, psychological and mental states of your mind.
    One common mistake people make when they are on a losing streak is that they are trying to make right pick to get back on track or stop betting for a while ,hoping,that their fortunes will turn.This is wrong approach.All they need to do is fix states of their mind.Explaining how to do it-will take me another 3 hours typing and I will explain some other time.
    There are so many articles and books teaching you and advising about betting,strategies,but none of them will teach you about soul of sports betting.You will find some pieces on the internet about this and that,but thats about it.Most people simply dont know what they are writing about.
    I suspect that right now you are asking yourself,who the f@#$ is this guy to tell me what betting is?!!!
    Im a degen who has his own betting experience,worked as a table clerk at a betting shop and have lots of experience of observing.
    6 years ago,i came to work,looked around,got sick of everyday job took last paycheck of 400 bucks and decided to become an everyday gambler.Yes,im one of those whos got balls to quit everyday job and become full time degen.To be honest,it wasnt out of blue decision,as I was preparing myself mentally,emotionally and psychologically 4 years before that.At that time I wanted, at least, to give it a try.out of 400 I made close to 350 grand and blew it...no,not on betting,but on women.Women f@#$% me up to the point,that i cannot concentrate or have right state of mind.For the last 2 years I work in construction chipping concrete for some pitiful 20 bucks per hour,preparing myself to make a run in betting again.
    This is not about me.Im writing this to help fellow present and future degens with information what betting is.To understand that betting is very complicated process and not to take it lightly.At the end, to understand the SOUL OF BETTING.Yes,its possible to make money in betting.In my case only for 2 years,but still its possible.



    I described only one section out of three.Sections -Betting and aftermath,i will write later on,because Ive got tired,plus,my "enslaver" is calling to come to work today.
    I described everything very shortly,because to describe how everything works-would take me 10 pages,but I hope I gave you some idea.
    p.s.if it was interesting and helpful-let me know in comments and I will spent time explaining the other 2 sections


    REMEMBER: sports betting is not just a way to make money,-its a lifestyle which will impact all aspects of your life.
    this is deep

  16. #51
    lonegambler23
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    this guys an expert

  17. #52
    Richkas
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    You can't unless you are really patient

  18. #53
    funnyb25
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    He went broke
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  19. #54
    cincinnatikid513
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    how about live betting kazakhstan ice hockey at 3:30 in the morning because you can't sleep and there is nothing else to bet on

    altay torpedo -135 down 2-1 after 1

    jfc
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  20. #55
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    how about live betting kazakhstan ice hockey at 3:30 in the morning because you can't sleep and there is nothing else to bet on

    altay torpedo -135 down 2-1 after 1

    jfc
    5-2 altay undefeated in kazahkstan ice hockey wagering might have to retire that league

    looking at the splits for this mhl russian game 10 am loko tayfun tayfun has 85 combined goals in 13 road matches loko score well at home

    mhl hockey 10 am loko tayfun over 5 goals -145

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  21. #56
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    he went broke

  22. #57
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    It's true, you've heard that some people just don't have what it takes, or that they aren't built for it, or that some can never overcome the obstacles to gambling.

    Only a small portion of that has to do with math and creativity...which are very important.

    The rest has to do with addiction, destructive behavior and tendencies, lack of patience, discipline, willpower and balance, etc.

    All psychological issues that can be dealt once they've been addressed, but not everyone can deal with them.
    post of the year

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