Historically is KVB a sharp?

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  • eaglesfan371
    SBR MVP
    • 01-08-19
    • 4079

    #1
    Historically is KVB a sharp?
    With all his soft porn gifs, I figured he was another “let’s gamble, get drunk af and find a whore” types. Nothing wrong with that though.

    Anyways, his plays seem to fade the public often so I’m curious if in past years if he’s been successful.

    Starting to track several cappers that appear +EV which is why I ask. Thinking of investing 1k and tailing these cappers’ plays blindly for like $50 a unit or a weighted scale based on their demonstrated ROI as a test trial. If successful increase investment.

    Wish there was a way you could get alerts on NEW threads being created by specific users (aka alerts for LT new threads).
  • RangeFinder
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-27-16
    • 8041

    #2
    K is as sharp as they come. Quant style.
    Comment
    • RudyRuetigger
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 08-24-10
      • 65084

      #3
      bro do you realize how long the long run is?

      itll take you 10 years to decide if he is +EV

      and by that time, the game/rules/playcalling/etc will change

      if you dont know what the fukk you are doing, yea go ahead and tail. id say hes better than 50/50

      not sure if better than beating the juice
      Comment
      • eaglesfan371
        SBR MVP
        • 01-08-19
        • 4079

        #4
        Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
        bro do you realize how long the long run is?

        itll take you 10 years to decide if he is +EV

        and by that time, the game/rules/playcalling/etc will change

        if you dont know what the fukk you are doing, yea go ahead and tail. id say hes better than 50/50

        not sure if better than beating the juice
        That’s why I asked about previous seasons. I’d say 3 full seasons of +results in NBA/CBB/CFB/NHL/MLB and at least 100 picks each season would create a p-value significant enough to say there is a high probability they are +EV. There are a couple sites on how many picks u need to prove +EV but I would argue it’s not 10 years for long sports like MLB. NFL yes, not enough games in 2 or 3 years.
        Comment
        • danshan11
          SBR MVP
          • 07-08-17
          • 4101

          #5
          Eagles, when you say they are +EV what are you using to measure that?

          I have had issues in the past with how KVB tracks line value but overall he has shown to me that he is usually on the right side of the line movement, so I would say that is a good indicator of sharpness.
          Comment
          • RangeFinder
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 10-27-16
            • 8041

            #6
            Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
            bro do you realize how long the long run is?

            itll take you 10 years to decide if he is +EV

            and by that time, the game/rules/playcalling/etc will change

            if you dont know what the fukk you are doing, yea go ahead and tail. id say hes better than 50/50

            not sure if better than beating the juice
            Somebody that understands statistics. Good post Rudy. It takes at least 10k events to determine an edge which makes backtracking on computer models difficult because of the lack of samples. Mostly we assume an edge but it is speculative.
            Comment
            • danshan11
              SBR MVP
              • 07-08-17
              • 4101

              #7
              Originally posted by eaglesfan371
              That’s why I asked about previous seasons. I’d say 3 full seasons of +results in NBA/CBB/CFB/NHL/MLB and at least 100 picks each season would create a p-value significant enough to say with they are +EV. There are a couple sites on how many picks u need to prove +EV but I would argue it’s not 10 years for long sports like MLB. NFL yes, not enough games in 2 or 3 years.

              I wrote the above before I read that you are using P value on 100 bets, that to me is not a very accurate method with a few 100 bets.
              Comment
              • danshan11
                SBR MVP
                • 07-08-17
                • 4101

                #8
                read black cat in a coal cellar
                Comment
                • eaglesfan371
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-08-19
                  • 4079

                  #9
                  Originally posted by RangeFinder
                  Somebody that understands statistics. Good post Rudy. It takes at least 10k events to determine an edge which makes backtracking on computer models difficult because of the lack of samples. Mostly we assume an edge but it is speculative.
                  You do need 10k events if you demonstrate a high success rate. Especially if you are beating the closing line. For example if you have 55% winners in 500 games vs someone 53% over 1000 games, both would results oriented be +EV so far at -105/-105 but would have different p values for probability that they are +EV long term.
                  Comment
                  • eaglesfan371
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-08-19
                    • 4079

                    #10
                    As I said before I’m looking to do a trial run. The hardest part is matching plays of cappers like LT who have access to 5+ different sets of lines. Majority of books I have access to basically feed from pinnacle. I know LT looks for at least 10% predicted ROI in a play before making it official.
                    Comment
                    • danshan11
                      SBR MVP
                      • 07-08-17
                      • 4101

                      #11
                      lets assume KVB is +money all day long and is a long term winner, does he post enough plays a day to overcome variance season to season. I know he bets enough to do what he does but does he post enough?
                      Comment
                      • RudyRuetigger
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 08-24-10
                        • 65084

                        #12
                        dan i think you are wrong bro

                        the ending line does not always matter

                        you need to categorize why the line moved in the first place
                        Comment
                        • RudyRuetigger
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 08-24-10
                          • 65084

                          #13
                          Originally posted by danshan11
                          lets assume KVB is +money all day long and is a long term winner, does he post enough plays a day to overcome variance season to season. I know he bets enough to do what he does but does he post enough?
                          hes not, but that was my point from the beginning
                          Comment
                          • danshan11
                            SBR MVP
                            • 07-08-17
                            • 4101

                            #14
                            Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                            dan i think you are wrong bro

                            the ending line does not always matter

                            you need to categorize why the line moved in the first place
                            what does categorize why mean?
                            Comment
                            • hotcross
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 08-04-17
                              • 7934

                              #15
                              Originally posted by eaglesfan371
                              Historically is KVB a sharp?
                              WTF you mean bro

                              Sharps seek the advice of KVB

                              You gonna insult him here by even asking
                              Comment
                              • eaglesfan371
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-08-19
                                • 4079

                                #16
                                Originally posted by danshan11
                                lets assume KVB is +money all day long and is a long term winner, does he post enough plays a day to overcome variance season to season. I know he bets enough to do what he does but does he post enough?
                                Variance will be managed through tailing multiple cappers deemed +ev. Not by just following one capper. Hence why I’m looking for as many +EV posters as I can find but also with at least 2+ successful seasons documented at a minimum with 100 plays each. Their success rate and # of seasons documented will determine my weight of the play tailing them.
                                Comment
                                • RudyRuetigger
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 08-24-10
                                  • 65084

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by danshan11
                                  what does categorize why mean?
                                  if a basketball line opened at -5 (like virginia)

                                  and you bet them

                                  many factors could influence that line:


                                  sharp money?
                                  everyone on 1 side so that are trying to get rid of some risk?
                                  an injury?
                                  sickness?

                                  these are just a few examples

                                  this time, auburn was reported sick yesterday.

                                  so because you got a line at -5 and the closing line goes to -7(theoretically)...do you think that was a sharp play?

                                  no, it couldve just have easily been virginia sick and moved to -3
                                  Comment
                                  • eaglesfan371
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-08-19
                                    • 4079

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by hotcross
                                    WTF you mean bro

                                    Sharps seek the advice of KVB

                                    You gonna insult him here by even asking
                                    I’m relatively new. KVB never has his own thread he just posts his plays randomly in other threads. Hence why I never noticed him when I would look at specific poster threads while lurking past year or two.
                                    Comment
                                    • danshan11
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 07-08-17
                                      • 4101

                                      #19
                                      you are wasting your time with that! no free lunches out there brother!

                                      A you wont overcome variance
                                      B you wont know with that sample size if these guys are talented and hint most are not
                                      C they just randomly disappear and change their method often and how will you know they did until you are in the shitter with that capper
                                      D markets change and survivorship bias of TALENTED cappers comes to play, heart attacks, tax fraud jail sentences and more!
                                      Comment
                                      • RudyRuetigger
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 08-24-10
                                        • 65084

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by eaglesfan371
                                        I’m relatively new. KVB never has his own thread he just posts his plays randomly in other threads. Hence why I never noticed him when I would look at specific poster threads while lurking past year or two.
                                        he did have his own thread

                                        he just quits tracking when things go south

                                        then plants them in other threads and bumps them til they go south

                                        just like me and the rest of everyone here
                                        Comment
                                        • danshan11
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 07-08-17
                                          • 4101

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                          if a basketball line opened at -5 (like virginia)

                                          and you bet them

                                          many factors could influence that line:


                                          sharp money?
                                          everyone on 1 side so that are trying to get rid of some risk?
                                          an injury?
                                          sickness?

                                          these are just a few examples

                                          this time, auburn was reported sick yesterday.

                                          so because you got a line at -5 and the closing line goes to -7(theoretically)...do you think that was a sharp play?

                                          no, it couldve just have easily been virginia sick and moved to -3
                                          all those things happen and if you bet enough to overcome variance you will have enough plays to overcome those things IF YOU are consistently beating the line.

                                          you know Rudy if I gave you a free point on every basketball spread over 1000 games (randomly picked out of a hat the game and play), would you probably win or lose?
                                          Comment
                                          • RudyRuetigger
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 08-24-10
                                            • 65084

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by danshan11
                                            all those things happen and if you bet enough to overcome variance you will have enough plays to overcome those things IF YOU are consistently beating the line.

                                            you know Rudy if I gave you a free point on every basketball spread over 1000 games (randomly picked out of a hat the game and play), would you probably win or lose?
                                            as you just admitted things change

                                            now pass interference is reviewable in NFL

                                            that will not help each team equally

                                            so models need skewed towards throwing teams at the beginning to bet them, unless the bookmakers compensate for this already

                                            who knows?!
                                            Comment
                                            • hotcross
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 08-04-17
                                              • 7934

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by eaglesfan371
                                              I’m relatively new. KVB never has his own thread he just posts his plays randomly in other threads. Hence why I never noticed him when I would look at specific poster threads while lurking past year or two.
                                              mmm hmm

                                              you could apologize before he wakes up and sees this

                                              things can get nasty here in a hot hurry
                                              Comment
                                              • RangeFinder
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 10-27-16
                                                • 8041

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                                he did have his own thread

                                                he just quits tracking when things go south

                                                then plants them in other threads and bumps them til they go south

                                                just like me and the rest of everyone here
                                                Not everyone.
                                                Comment
                                                • danshan11
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 07-08-17
                                                  • 4101

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by hotcross
                                                  mmm hmm

                                                  you could apologize before he wakes up and sees this

                                                  things can get nasty here in a hot hurry
                                                  "if you even dream you can beat me, wake up and apologize" Ali
                                                  Comment
                                                  • shadymcgrady
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 02-27-12
                                                    • 10036

                                                    #26
                                                    Everyone has a right to their own opinions. Pick your own plays, this place is for entertainment not charity
                                                    Comment
                                                    • danshan11
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 07-08-17
                                                      • 4101

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                                      as you just admitted things change

                                                      now pass interference is reviewable in NFL

                                                      that will not help each team equally

                                                      so models need skewed towards throwing teams at the beginning to bet them, unless the bookmakers compensate for this already

                                                      who knows?!
                                                      answer the 1 point question Rudy, please
                                                      Comment
                                                      • RudyRuetigger
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 08-24-10
                                                        • 65084

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by RangeFinder
                                                        Not everyone.
                                                        bro, you are seriously calling yourself a winner?

                                                        i have no clue on my individual plays but i try to admit im a loser

                                                        why?

                                                        because i actually had a huge following here

                                                        and if you check my btp history, you will still see im hitting at a great clip
                                                        Comment
                                                        • eaglesfan371
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-08-19
                                                          • 4079

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by shadymcgrady
                                                          Everyone has a right to their own opinions. Pick your own plays, this place is for entertainment not charity
                                                          You want to win $ right or at least have a better chance at winning correct? From my personal plays, I know from past years I have not done well in MLB. I have not done well in college basketball or football. I have done well in NHL and NFL. NHL is almost over. Over the last year I have stopped betting sports I’m not good at historically. I would like to test trial tailing successful cappers during spring/summer periods.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • RudyRuetigger
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 08-24-10
                                                            • 65084

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by danshan11
                                                            answer the 1 point question Rudy, please
                                                            its a useless question
                                                            Comment
                                                            • RudyRuetigger
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 08-24-10
                                                              • 65084

                                                              #31
                                                              i dont bet hockey usually

                                                              werent over unders about 4 until some rule change about 10-15 years ago?

                                                              what happened to those models
                                                              Comment
                                                              • shadymcgrady
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 02-27-12
                                                                • 10036

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by eaglesfan371
                                                                You want to win $ right or at least have a better chance at winning correct? From my personal plays, I know from past years I have not done well in MLB. I have not done well in college basketball or football. I have done well in NHL and NFL. NHL is almost over. Over the last year I have stopped betting sports I’m not good at historically. I would like to test trial tailing successful cappers during spring/summer periods.
                                                                Sports betting is a form of entertainment, disposable income. If you confuse it with bonds, stocks or IRAs then you're going to be disappointed
                                                                Comment
                                                                • RangeFinder
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 10-27-16
                                                                  • 8041

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                                                  bro, you are seriously calling yourself a winner?

                                                                  i have no clue on my individual plays but i try to admit im a loser
                                                                  why?

                                                                  because i actually had a huge following here

                                                                  and if you check my btp history, you will still see im hitting at a great clip
                                                                  Yes
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • DiggityDaggityDo
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 11-30-08
                                                                    • 81450

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                                                    he did have his own thread

                                                                    he just quits tracking when things go south

                                                                    then plants them in other threads and bumps them til they go south

                                                                    just like me and the rest of everyone here
                                                                    Not me, Rudy.

                                                                    All my losers are posted in one thread and have been for years.

                                                                    Fade me and get RICH!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • RudyRuetigger
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 08-24-10
                                                                      • 65084

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by RangeFinder
                                                                      Yes
                                                                      this is why i am in players talk

                                                                      egotistical, self centered jackasses that do not tell the truth

                                                                      bro you just came back from a few months off after your string of losers
                                                                      Comment
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