[eaglesfan371]

With all his soft porn gifs, I figured he was another “let’s gamble, get drunk af and find a whore” types. Nothing wrong with that though.

Anyways, his plays seem to fade the public often so I’m curious if in past years if he’s been successful.

Starting to track several cappers that appear +EV which is why I ask. Thinking of investing 1k and tailing these cappers’ plays blindly for like $50 a unit or a weighted scale based on their demonstrated ROI as a test trial. If successful increase investment.

Wish there was a way you could get alerts on NEW threads being created by specific users (aka alerts for LT new threads).

[RangeFinder]

K is as sharp as they come. Quant style.

[RudyRuetigger]

bro do you realize how long the long run is?

itll take you 10 years to decide if he is +EV

and by that time, the game/rules/playcalling/etc will change

if you dont know what the fukk you are doing, yea go ahead and tail. id say hes better than 50/50

not sure if better than beating the juice

[eaglesfan371]

bro do you realize how long the long run is?

itll take you 10 years to decide if he is +EV

and by that time, the game/rules/playcalling/etc will change

if you dont know what the fukk you are doing, yea go ahead and tail. id say hes better than 50/50

not sure if better than beating the juice

That’s why I asked about previous seasons. I’d say 3 full seasons of +results in NBA/CBB/CFB/NHL/MLB and at least 100 picks each season would create a p-value significant enough to say there is a high probability they are +EV. There are a couple sites on how many picks u need to prove +EV but I would argue it’s not 10 years for long sports like MLB. NFL yes, not enough games in 2 or 3 years.

[danshan11]

Eagles, when you say they are +EV what are you using to measure that?

I have had issues in the past with how KVB tracks line value but overall he has shown to me that he is usually on the right side of the line movement, so I would say that is a good indicator of sharpness.

[RangeFinder]

bro do you realize how long the long run is?

itll take you 10 years to decide if he is +EV

and by that time, the game/rules/playcalling/etc will change

if you dont know what the fukk you are doing, yea go ahead and tail. id say hes better than 50/50

not sure if better than beating the juice

Somebody that understands statistics. Good post Rudy. It takes at least 10k events to determine an edge which makes backtracking on computer models difficult because of the lack of samples. Mostly we assume an edge but it is speculative.

[danshan11]

That’s why I asked about previous seasons. I’d say 3 full seasons of +results in NBA/CBB/CFB/NHL/MLB and at least 100 picks each season would create a p-value significant enough to say with they are +EV. There are a couple sites on how many picks u need to prove +EV but I would argue it’s not 10 years for long sports like MLB. NFL yes, not enough games in 2 or 3 years.

I wrote the above before I read that you are using P value on 100 bets, that to me is not a very accurate method with a few 100 bets.

[danshan11]

read black cat in a coal cellar

[eaglesfan371]

Somebody that understands statistics. Good post Rudy. It takes at least 10k events to determine an edge which makes backtracking on computer models difficult because of the lack of samples. Mostly we assume an edge but it is speculative.

You do need 10k events if you demonstrate a high success rate. Especially if you are beating the closing line. For example if you have 55% winners in 500 games vs someone 53% over 1000 games, both would results oriented be +EV so far at -105/-105 but would have different p values for probability that they are +EV long term.

[eaglesfan371]

As I said before I’m looking to do a trial run. The hardest part is matching plays of cappers like LT who have access to 5+ different sets of lines. Majority of books I have access to basically feed from pinnacle. I know LT looks for at least 10% predicted ROI in a play before making it official.

[danshan11]

lets assume KVB is +money all day long and is a long term winner, does he post enough plays a day to overcome variance season to season. I know he bets enough to do what he does but does he post enough?

[RudyRuetigger]

dan i think you are wrong bro

the ending line does not always matter

you need to categorize why the line moved in the first place

[RudyRuetigger]

lets assume KVB is +money all day long and is a long term winner, does he post enough plays a day to overcome variance season to season. I know he bets enough to do what he does but does he post enough?

hes not, but that was my point from the beginning

[danshan11]

dan i think you are wrong bro

the ending line does not always matter

you need to categorize why the line moved in the first place

what does categorize why mean?

[hotcross]

Historically is KVB a sharp?

WTF you mean bro

Sharps seek the advice of KVB

You gonna insult him here by even asking

[eaglesfan371]

lets assume KVB is +money all day long and is a long term winner, does he post enough plays a day to overcome variance season to season. I know he bets enough to do what he does but does he post enough?

Variance will be managed through tailing multiple cappers deemed +ev. Not by just following one capper. Hence why I’m looking for as many +EV posters as I can find but also with at least 2+ successful seasons documented at a minimum with 100 plays each. Their success rate and # of seasons documented will determine my weight of the play tailing them.

[RudyRuetigger]

what does categorize why mean?

if a basketball line opened at -5 (like virginia)

and you bet them

many factors could influence that line:


sharp money?
everyone on 1 side so that are trying to get rid of some risk?
an injury?
sickness?

these are just a few examples

this time, auburn was reported sick yesterday.

so because you got a line at -5 and the closing line goes to -7(theoretically)...do you think that was a sharp play?

no, it couldve just have easily been virginia sick and moved to -3

[eaglesfan371]

WTF you mean bro

Sharps seek the advice of KVB

You gonna insult him here by even asking

I’m relatively new. KVB never has his own thread he just posts his plays randomly in other threads. Hence why I never noticed him when I would look at specific poster threads while lurking past year or two.

[danshan11]

you are wasting your time with that! no free lunches out there brother!

A you wont overcome variance
B you wont know with that sample size if these guys are talented and hint most are not
C they just randomly disappear and change their method often and how will you know they did until you are in the shitter with that capper
D markets change and survivorship bias of TALENTED cappers comes to play, heart attacks, tax fraud jail sentences and more!

[RudyRuetigger]

I’m relatively new. KVB never has his own thread he just posts his plays randomly in other threads. Hence why I never noticed him when I would look at specific poster threads while lurking past year or two.

he did have his own thread

he just quits tracking when things go south

then plants them in other threads and bumps them til they go south

just like me and the rest of everyone here

[danshan11]

if a basketball line opened at -5 (like virginia)

and you bet them

many factors could influence that line:


sharp money?
everyone on 1 side so that are trying to get rid of some risk?
an injury?
sickness?

these are just a few examples

this time, auburn was reported sick yesterday.

so because you got a line at -5 and the closing line goes to -7(theoretically)...do you think that was a sharp play?

no, it couldve just have easily been virginia sick and moved to -3

all those things happen and if you bet enough to overcome variance you will have enough plays to overcome those things IF YOU are consistently beating the line.

you know Rudy if I gave you a free point on every basketball spread over 1000 games (randomly picked out of a hat the game and play), would you probably win or lose?

[RudyRuetigger]

all those things happen and if you bet enough to overcome variance you will have enough plays to overcome those things IF YOU are consistently beating the line.

you know Rudy if I gave you a free point on every basketball spread over 1000 games (randomly picked out of a hat the game and play), would you probably win or lose?

as you just admitted things change

now pass interference is reviewable in NFL

that will not help each team equally

so models need skewed towards throwing teams at the beginning to bet them, unless the bookmakers compensate for this already

who knows?!

[hotcross]

I’m relatively new. KVB never has his own thread he just posts his plays randomly in other threads. Hence why I never noticed him when I would look at specific poster threads while lurking past year or two.

mmm hmm

you could apologize before he wakes up and sees this

things can get nasty here in a hot hurry

[RangeFinder]

he did have his own thread

he just quits tracking when things go south

then plants them in other threads and bumps them til they go south

just like me and the rest of everyone here

Not everyone.

[danshan11]

mmm hmm

you could apologize before he wakes up and sees this

things can get nasty here in a hot hurry

"if you even dream you can beat me, wake up and apologize" Ali

[shadymcgrady]

Everyone has a right to their own opinions. Pick your own plays, this place is for entertainment not charity

[danshan11]

as you just admitted things change

now pass interference is reviewable in NFL

that will not help each team equally

so models need skewed towards throwing teams at the beginning to bet them, unless the bookmakers compensate for this already

who knows?!

answer the 1 point question Rudy, please

[RudyRuetigger]

Not everyone.

bro, you are seriously calling yourself a winner?

i have no clue on my individual plays but i try to admit im a loser

why?

because i actually had a huge following here

and if you check my btp history, you will still see im hitting at a great clip

[eaglesfan371]

Everyone has a right to their own opinions. Pick your own plays, this place is for entertainment not charity

You want to win $ right or at least have a better chance at winning correct? From my personal plays, I know from past years I have not done well in MLB. I have not done well in college basketball or football. I have done well in NHL and NFL. NHL is almost over. Over the last year I have stopped betting sports I’m not good at historically. I would like to test trial tailing successful cappers during spring/summer periods.

[RudyRuetigger]

answer the 1 point question Rudy, please

its a useless question

[RudyRuetigger]

i dont bet hockey usually

werent over unders about 4 until some rule change about 10-15 years ago?

what happened to those models

[shadymcgrady]

You want to win $ right or at least have a better chance at winning correct? From my personal plays, I know from past years I have not done well in MLB. I have not done well in college basketball or football. I have done well in NHL and NFL. NHL is almost over. Over the last year I have stopped betting sports I’m not good at historically. I would like to test trial tailing successful cappers during spring/summer periods.

Sports betting is a form of entertainment, disposable income. If you confuse it with bonds, stocks or IRAs then you're going to be disappointed

[RangeFinder]

bro, you are seriously calling yourself a winner?

i have no clue on my individual plays but i try to admit im a loser
why?

because i actually had a huge following here

and if you check my btp history, you will still see im hitting at a great clip

Yes

[DiggityDaggityDo]

he did have his own thread

he just quits tracking when things go south

then plants them in other threads and bumps them til they go south

just like me and the rest of everyone here

Not me, Rudy.

All my losers are posted in one thread and have been for years.

Fade me and get RICH!

[RudyRuetigger]

Yes

this is why i am in players talk

egotistical, self centered jackasses that do not tell the truth

bro you just came back from a few months off after your string of losers