1. #1
    Hman
    Hman's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 11-04-17
    Posts: 21,456
    Betpoints: 1209

    Betting guide to Till-Masvidal at UFC Fight Night in London 👊

    Betting guide to Till-Masvidal at UFC Fight Night in London


    ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


    There aren't any UFC titles on the line in London on Saturday, but the biggest matchups on the Fight Night card carry clear implications as to who will be able to line up next as a title challenger. Each of the final three bouts on the card features matchups between ranked fighters, with a pair of key welterweight fights closing out Saturday's action.

    It's a division that has been through chaos of late, with a new champion and likely top contender among the many shake-ups, but it's clear that 2019 will be chock full of opportunity for fresh faces to step up to the challenge. This card will be play a part in that process, but looking through the lens of gambling value, we're most concerned with who has the edge in the main event, and how the odds compare to that data.

    Welterweight: No. 3 Darren Till (-250) vs. No. 11 Jorge Masvidal (+200)

    Fightnomics' Uber Tale Of The Tape

    JORGE MASVIDAL DARREN TILL
    Last fight weight class WW WW
    Age 34.3 26.2
    Height 71.0 72.0
    Reach 74.0 75.0
    Stance Orthodox Southpaw
    Analyzed minutes 269 Mins 90 Mins
    Standup striking offense
    Total knockdown ratio
    (Scored : Received)
    6:4 4:1
    Distance knockdown rate 1.5% 4.3%
    Head jab accuracy 33% 34%
    Head power accuracy 36% 34%
    Total standup strike ratio 0.9 0.7
    Striking defense
    Total head strike defense 77% 86%
    Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 98% 98%
    Wrestling and grappling
    TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.20 0.11
    Takedown accuracy 58% 33%
    Advances per takedown/top control 0.5 0.3
    Opponent takedown attempts 110 22
    Takedown defense 80% 86%
    Share of total ground time in control 63% 55%
    Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.17 0.00
    After opening as a -245 favorite, two-way action on Till briefly dropped his line to just -185 before quickly shifting back to Till being the comfortable favorite at -250, where he's remained through fight week. These two fighters are on different ends of the welterweight size spectrum. Till has famously claimed he's a middleweight fighting at welterweight, while Masvidal actually competed at lightweight before moving up a division. On paper, Till is only slightly bigger, in terms of height and reach. On fight night, however, expect him to be heavier than Masvidal.

    Given that both men attempt few takedowns and also show solid takedown defense, we should expect a striking duel to play out on Saturday night. Previous fights for Masvidal and Till suggest a strong likelihood of a duel between two fighters with below-average strike ratios -- meaning there could be a lot of feeling out and moving around the cage.

    Both men are accurate punchers, but of this pairing only Till has proven difficult to reach and hit while maintaining offensive accuracy. His much lower output and pace mean that he'll prefer slow, back-and-forth striking exchanges, as he's likely to get the better of such exchanges against Masvidal. Till is also the harder hitter of the two fighters, and Masvidal is giving up a sizable "youth advantage" when you compare their ages, as well as the extra years of wear and tear competing in the sport.

    Despite all of this, and Masvidal having been knocked down four times in previous fights, Masvidal has yet to be finished by strikes in his lengthy runs in the UFC and Strikeforce. While signs point to Till having the striking edge in a likely striking-focused battle, Masvidal's durability and aggression add wild cards to the matchup against an opponent who was hurt badly in his last outing.

    E+ recommends: The lines have run away from us on this one, leading to a pass situation for the main event. The numbers agree with Till's status as a favorite, but not at current prices. Parlay hunters might add Till into the mix, but the true value of betting the side just isn't there against such a wily and grizzled veteran like Masvidal.

    At this point in fight week, totals and props have yet to be released. We'd expect the total to be on the high side, either 3.5 or 4.5 rounds. A close back-and-forth duel is likely to happen, with both men being durable enough to force extra rounds. But don't discount the possibility of a late finish, which could come if either fighter begins to time the other's entrances into exchanges.

  2. #2
    eaglesfan371
    The great game of POT...LIMIT...OMAHA
    eaglesfan371's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-08-19
    Posts: 4,084
    Betpoints: 119

    Hman shhhh

    The nice weather has me wanting to fly to London again. Man was it beautiful there last April. So many sights to see, truly in awe. Clubs were a lot of fun, the tube was very impressively designed, Wimbledon and Chelsea tours, all the great old history and famous streets, great poker casinos, bookies on streets, was a great time. Ah the memories. Then I went to Dublin and man I LOVED it.

  3. #3
    Hman
    Hman's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 11-04-17
    Posts: 21,456
    Betpoints: 1209

    Quote Originally Posted by eaglesfan371 View Post
    Hman shhhh

    The nice weather has me wanting to fly to London again. Man was it beautiful there last April. So many sights to see, truly in awe. Clubs were a lot of fun, the tube was very impressively designed, Wimbledon and Chelsea tours, all the great old history and famous streets, great poker casinos, bookies on streets, was a great time. Ah the memories. Then I went to Dublin and man I LOVED it.


    So between the two which would you recommend?

    Ireland or London

    Guy who traveled regularly told me every time he's been to Ireland it was raining lol

  4. #4
    eaglesfan371
    The great game of POT...LIMIT...OMAHA
    eaglesfan371's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-08-19
    Posts: 4,084
    Betpoints: 119

    BOTH

    You can take a 1 hr flight to Dublin from London for like $15.

    When booking international trips, look at every flight separate. You’d be surprised how cheap flights are.

    My last euro trip:
    Flight from Washington DC (near where I live) to Amsterdam WOW airlines, 10 hrs, 1.5 hour stop in Iceland: $205 with one carry on

    Flight from Amsterdam to Barcelona
    Ryanair 2 hr $22

    Flight from Barcelona to New York direct Norwegian airs flight, 7 hours, $170 with movies and amazing onboard service free

    Amtrak train from New York to DC $45

  5. #5
    MinnesotaFats
    MinnesotaFats's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-18-10
    Posts: 13,365
    Betpoints: 351

    Quote Originally Posted by Hman View Post
    So between the two which would you recommend?

    Ireland or London

    Guy who traveled regularly told me every time he's been to Ireland it was raining lol
    You kinda have to pick Ireland if you're traveling this week yet don't ya??

  6. #6
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar File Clerk
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 377,373
    Betpoints: 964

    UFC is dead

    Without MAC their is nothing

    I could not name one male fighter

  7. #7
    HurlSweatPants
    HurlSweatPants's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-28-15
    Posts: 951
    Betpoints: 3367

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    UFC is dead

    Without MAC their is nothing

    I could not name one male fighter
    Who the fack is this guy lol

    I think you meant MLB. Losing viewers at record rates. Attendance is down to its lowest average in 15 years. Once you old penetrates die, it wont even be a sport anymore.

Top