[danshan11]

say there is a 1000 handicappers in a room
950 pick winners or line bias, 948 lose long term, 1 is skilled and the other is survivorship bias
50 create lines and try to beat the line 44 lose long term 5 are skilled and other is survivorship bias


Gaze you are not like this tennis guy
he is beating the line at nearly 2% that is not enough to beat the margin but it is not throwing darts that is for sure. Every pick you posted that I checked Gaze was a negative EV pick, I cant remember one that was +EV against the margin.

[Gaze73]

say there is a 1000 handicappers in a room
950 pick winners or line bias, 948 lose long term, 1 is skilled and the other is survivorship bias
50 create lines and try to beat the line 44 lose long term 5 are skilled and other is survivorship bias


Gaze you are not like this tennis guy
he is beating the line at nearly 2% that is not enough to beat the margin but it is not throwing darts that is for sure. Every pick you posted that I checked Gaze was a negative EV pick, I cant remember one that was +EV against the margin.

If you're so good at reading EV go ahead and fade me. The last pick I posted was under 6 in the Boston - Ducks game, my odds were 1.65 and I just checked that the closing odds were 1.53. The game ended with 3 goals. Negative EV my ass. But suppose the closing line was 1.66, I still won the bet by a mile on that individual game because it was a high confidence play according to my numbers. But you'd still act like the play was terrible because the closing line moved 1 cent against me. I also posted Drake +6 which didn't move at all, but they won straight up by 3 points. Terrible play according to you, because the line didn't move to Drake +5.5.

[danshan11]

I read what you write and assume your knowledge from there, I actually have no knowledge of your results or track them.

what line did you have on the ducks game, what made you make that selection?

when did you make that selection

remember timing is important and pricing, things you can buy for $250 are usually not available at the same odds at $2500

[danshan11]

If you're so good at reading EV go ahead and fade me. The last pick I posted was under 6 in the Boston - Ducks game, my odds were 1.65 and I just checked that the closing odds were 1.53. The game ended with 3 goals. Negative EV my ass. But suppose the closing line was 1.66, I still won the bet by a mile on that individual game because it was a high confidence play according to my numbers. But you'd still act like the play was terrible because the closing line moved 1 cent against me. I also posted Drake +6 which didn't move at all, but they won straight up by 3 points. Terrible play according to you, because the line didn't move to Drake +5.5.

see comments like fade me prove you have no concept how this business works
say I fade you
I get -105 other side and you get -105 your side, guess what we both lose long term when it ends up 50-50 WL records

also what is a high confidence play?

[Mike1029]

No question about!

[danshan11]

and actually Gaze that game is a perfect example of how the business works
Under 6 Bruins vs Ducks that game had lets say a 2% per side margin
it opened at 1.65 at openers of say $250 limits
if you bought at 1.65 you got down 250 bucks
if you bought when the limits middled you got maybe $1000 at 1.56
if you bought at max limits maybe $5000 you got 1.58

1.65 to 1.53 clv 2% is great but for 250 not so much return in real dollars
1.56 to 1.53 NEG CLV line value probably does not even cover the margin at 1000
1.58 to 1.53 is 0% CLV at max bet limits

this bet truly shows how hard it is to win and is a great example of how tough it really is

[Gaze73]

see comments like fade me prove you have no concept how this business works
say I fade you
I get -105 other side and you get -105 your side, guess what we both lose long term when it ends up 50-50 WL records

also what is a high confidence play?

I know how it works but you deserve to lose for your close-mindedness.

We've already discussed what's a high confidence play in the best bet thread. Everyone pro has their models showing different numbers, and when there's a big discrepancy between the model and the bookie's numbers that's a high confidence play. Anything above 20% edge is a high conf play.

[danshan11]

if you find any actual line that is a 20% edge, your model is 100% garbage.

[danshan11]

you also never said what line did you have on the Bruins Ducks game for the over under 6?

[Gaze73]

and actually Gaze that game is a perfect example of how the business works
Under 6 Bruins vs Ducks that game had lets say a 2% per side margin
it opened at 1.65 at openers of say $250 limits
if you bought at 1.65 you got down 250 bucks
if you bought when the limits middled you got maybe $1000 at 1.56
if you bought at max limits maybe $5000 you got 1.58

1.65 to 1.53 clv 2% is great but for 250 not so much return in real dollars
1.56 to 1.53 NEG CLV line value probably does not even cover the margin at 1000
1.58 to 1.53 is 0% CLV at max bet limits

this bet truly shows how hard it is to win and is a great example of how tough it really is

Except I never bet on openers, I posted it like 4 hours before the game and 5Dimes didn't drop the line until 10 minutes before the game. And I would've taken that bet even at 1.53 because I expected a 4-5 goal game and the money coming in just confirmed it's going to be under.

[Gaze73]

you also never said what line did you have on the Bruins Ducks game for the over under 6?

Boston - Ducks U6 -153

...

[danshan11]

that line moved a ton, just cause oddsportals api did not pick it up does not mean it did not move. you expected a 4-5 goal game great so what line did you have on under 6, what was your under 6 probability?

[danshan11]

...

what line did you have on the game, what probability did you have that under 6 would hit?

[eaglesfan371]

what line did you have on the game, what probability did you have that under 6 would hit?

Stop feeding the troll / idiot. He does not have a model, he likely doesn’t even though how to use excel or VB.

[Gaze73]

if you find any actual line that is a 20% edge, your model is 100% garbage.

For example my draw system A hit 58/133 43.6% so far at average odds 3.8 for a 63% ROI. Obviously that's unsustainable, but I'm pretty sure it will not drop below 20%. According to you that's just a lucky run or survivorship bias but I believe it's a good model which makes profit at the closing odds because the market is dumb and thinks the draw won't happen. Inb4 jjgold.

[Gaze73]

what line did you have on the game, what probability did you have that under 6 would hit?

Under 5.5 should've been at -200, clueless bookies!

[danshan11]

For example my draw system A hit 58/133 43.6% so far at average odds 3.8 for a 63% ROI. Obviously that's unsustainable, but I'm pretty sure it will not drop below 20%. According to you that's just a lucky run or survivorship bias but I believe it's a good model which makes profit at the closing odds because the market is dumb and thinks the draw won't happen. Inb4 jjgold.

you need to know if its good
what is your actual win%
what is your models win% estimate
what is the actual closing line win%
those 3 things will tell you a ton about what is going on, if you dont have all 3 dude, you are not ready to bet real money other than recreation. if you do have all 3 give them here and let me criticize them

[danshan11]

Under 5.5 should've been at -200, clueless bookies!

ok Gaze I think this statement kinda proves a ton about your thought process

[Gaze73]

Let's just wait and see, when I make 100k by the end of the year you'll see I was right.

[danshan11]

Let's just wait and see, when I make 100k by the end of the year you'll see I was right.

you said that last year, do you remember?

anyway dude I remember when I use to think oh shit the Pats will win by 30, -7 is nothing, that was a long time ago and I was losing tons of money back then.

[danshan11]

if you ever want to learn how to really play or at least understand the process read those 3 books dude, stop just randomly picking shit and get some betting knowledge for real

[Gaze73]

My models are much better now than 6 months ago. It's like a machine learning system, growing stronger every day.

[Gaze73]

if you ever want to learn how to really play or at least understand the process read those 3 books dude, stop just randomly picking shit and get some betting knowledge for real

If the authors had any clue they'd be millionaires LOL

[danshan11]

My models are much better now than 6 months ago. It's like a machine learning system, growing stronger every day.

if you had -200 on 5.5 and it closed at -140, I would say your model is learning very slowly and at this rate you will die of old age twice before it gets close enough to even dream of betting $1 dollar. now if your model is a recreation model, have fun fire away, go go go!!!

[swordsandtequila]

you said that last year, do you remember?

anyway dude I remember when I use to think oh shit the Pats will win by 30, -7 is nothing, that was a long time ago and I was losing tons of money back then.

He's been saying that every year since he joined SBR. You're wasting your breath.

[danshan11]

He's been saying that every year since he joined SBR. You're wasting your breath.

I love discussing sports betting more than anyone and really enjoy trying to get the dislocated back on the map

[cashin81]

I was on Vereya +3.5, seemed like a crazy line. Ludogorets was definitely trying, 10 shots on target, dominated the field literally every single minute, but sometimes a goal just doesn't go in.

Verya 40/1 to score a goal min 60.

literally never seen that.

i want my £5 back due to suspicious betting! fk that, even san marino arent 40/1 with half an hour to play