It definitely pays well, I know people who make hundreds of thousands a year with bets like this https://prnt.sc/mhfxhm. You can easily become a multimillionaire with $5k bets at Pinny as long as the bets are decent. E.g. yearly turnover 10 mil from 2k bets at 5% edge = 500k a year. I can do 15% edge at Pinny I'm sure.
Is this market manipulation?
Collapse
X
-
Gaze73SBR MVP
- 01-27-14
- 3291
#36Comment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#37Just over 50 percent of survey respondents said that earning an annual salary of, or owning assets of, between $50,000 and $99,999 qualifies a household as middle-class, whereas 26 percent said $1 to $49,999.
Another 20 percent said the middle class is composed of those earning or possessing between $100,000 and $499,999.Comment -
Alfa1234SBR MVP
- 12-19-15
- 2722
#38It definitely pays well, I know people who make hundreds of thousands a year with bets like this https://prnt.sc/mhfxhm. You can easily become a multimillionaire with $5k bets at Pinny as long as the bets are decent. E.g. yearly turnover 10 mil from 2k bets at 5% edge = 500k a year. I can do 15% edge at Pinny I'm sure.Comment -
Gaze73SBR MVP
- 01-27-14
- 3291
#39I don't know what bookie was used in that screenshot, and I don't care about esports much anyway. Point is that there are highrollers betting 1 to 5k a game and living the high life. In a year I hope to join them.Comment -
jjgoldSBR Aristocracy
- 07-20-05
- 388179
#40
people with nice things do not get it from gambling but hard workComment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#41i bet about 3k a game and I am definitely not living the high life from betting and i think a 5% edge is unheard of and might be in 5k per bet markets impossible todayLast edited by danshan11; 02-16-19, 03:30 PM.Comment -
Gaze73SBR MVP
- 01-27-14
- 3291
#42How come? If you bet 3k a game that means your BR should be at least 300k. With such huge stakes you only need a tiny edge to make decent profits. If 100k a year is not good enough for you then you're greedy. And if you can't make more than 100k with such a bankroll you need to step up your game, every % of edge counts.Comment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#43there are no games to bet, I am very limited by my skills, I can only cap the NBA, and WNBA and I want to eventually learn to profit from MLB but at this point have not built a model that can generate an edge in the MLB.
winners
get down big numbers each day
and get down over 100 times per day
anything else is recreational, yes I know there are guys here who have 80k in the bank and make 15k a month picking winners but I am talking about me not these long term anomaly long term winners not modeling.
say we flip a coin and I give you +150 odds but only give you five flips per year at max bet, you know how many losing years you will have, you can not make it in that scenario.Comment -
eaglesfan371SBR MVP
- 01-08-19
- 4079
#44Ah yes the ol "delusion of grandeur". "The high life" LOL.Comment -
jjgoldSBR Aristocracy
- 07-20-05
- 388179
#45way easier to work
that is how the rich people do itComment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#46most rich people run shit, they dont "work" per seComment -
Gaze73SBR MVP
- 01-27-14
- 3291
#47there are no games to bet, I am very limited by my skills, I can only cap the NBA, and WNBA and I want to eventually learn to profit from MLB but at this point have not built a model that can generate an edge in the MLB.
winners
get down big numbers each day
and get down over 100 times per day
anything else is recreational, yes I know there are guys here who have 80k in the bank and make 15k a month picking winners but I am talking about me not these long term anomaly long term winners not modeling.
say we flip a coin and I give you +150 odds but only give you five flips per year at max bet, you know how many losing years you will have, you can not make it in that scenario.Comment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#48LOL, you cant cap soccer or tennis brother, you dont even know what cap means. I dont mean no disrespect but I really believe you have no idea how to cap a game.Comment -
Gaze73SBR MVP
- 01-27-14
- 3291
#49Comment -
Emily_HainesSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-09
- 15917
-
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#51
I wont comment on your soccer picks but yeah, okComment -
Gaze73SBR MVP
- 01-27-14
- 3291
#53How did you get so far with such scared money? Betting less than 0.1% is ultra conservative, especially when your picks are good enough to grow such a bankroll in the first place. You're literally costing yourself tens of millions because of such low stakes.Comment -
Gaze73SBR MVP
- 01-27-14
- 3291
#54I'm not playing yours either, grinding 54% at -110 is for fools. Ray and Slipknot seem worth following though.Comment -
jjgoldSBR Aristocracy
- 07-20-05
- 388179
#55Tout alert and fraud alertComment -
eaglesfan371SBR MVP
- 01-08-19
- 4079
#58Comment -
Gaze73SBR MVP
- 01-27-14
- 3291
#59What delusion? Just because you couldn't make it doesn't mean nobody can. Just look a few posts above to see a guy with allegedly 10+ mil BR. If he could do it so can I. Better than slaving away in a soul-sucking office job for peanuts.Comment -
pretentiousGuySBR High Roller
- 09-13-18
- 136
#60100 million bankroll here. I only bet 10,000 a gameComment -
eaglesfan371SBR MVP
- 01-08-19
- 4079
#61
So tell me kid, describe to me the model you’re working on. What variables are you using? How are you backtesting? Will you be using any macros in your solver?Comment -
jjgoldSBR Aristocracy
- 07-20-05
- 388179
#62This is a set up for a tout business be careful and we are investigating it right nowComment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#63you think Gaze is touting? I dont think Gaze has any dreams of touting. he is just a guy who thinks he can see sports betting better than the millions of dollars bet worldwide on sports events to set the line. He is not the first or last guy who thinks sports betting is simple, just pick some winners and relax on the couch.Comment -
jjgoldSBR Aristocracy
- 07-20-05
- 388179
#64Poor kid is going to lose everythingComment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#65its pretty easy to smarten up and just read a few books for god sake. A few simple basic betting books explain how it works, it does not take a phd to understand you are screwed betting against the line. Its fun recreation do it for what it is. I go to the state fair and have a blast, I dont think man I could build a ferris wheel, i just enjoy the ride.Comment -
JohnGalt2341SBR Hall of Famer
- 12-31-09
- 9138
#66its pretty easy to smarten up and just read a few books for god sake. A few simple basic betting books explain how it works, it does not take a phd to understand you are screwed betting against the line. Its fun recreation do it for what it is. I go to the state fair and have a blast, I dont think man I could build a ferris wheel, i just enjoy the ride.Comment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#67sure
squares and sharps is good to get some perspective
the best flat out book to get the "numbers" of how it works and how to analyze yourself. Analyzing our own plays is the most important thing aspiring bettors can do and black cat in a coal cellar does exactly that, gives you the tools you need to truly analyze your own and anyone else's skills
how to find a blackcat in a coal cellar
Joseph B is a good author but is very cynical of the whole betting world, I dont personally get that hater on the community as a whole. He does however have a very firm hand on what it really takes to find or analyze someone as a long term winner.
as far as general how to get started actually capping books
pokerjoes sharper a guide to sports betting is a very good read, very informative and gives you a basic recipe to start modeling.
I think in reality the modern sagarin models and others are pretty darn hard to beat and what most modern cappers do today is not model games at all they more likely adjust the available models by being sharper on players out or and or weather or rest adjustments.
I would argue it would be very difficult to out model some serious power rankers like Sagarin or some others but the real deal is what happens when Irving is out for Boston or the wind picks up by 15 mph unexpectedly, I think this is where most today cappers are making their money.Comment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#68I want to touch on it again
the most important thing we can do is know how to analyze our own plays.
I mean if you picked Ottawa today in the NHl you could have got it at as low as +175, it closed at +192
so if you bought it at +175 was that a good bet
GUY A hell no it closed at 192, you play like this and you will get crushed long term
GUY B will say I picked a big dog winner, this is a really smart play finding the dog in the weeds
so the question most people need to ask themselves is who is right A or B? we as bettors need to know what are answer is to this question and why we believe what we believe and if you dont feel confident in your answer read these books
and some really smart guys will say its a combination and try to make it into this very part art part science thingLast edited by danshan11; 02-16-19, 10:32 PM.Comment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#69now with all that said
I read a very funny twitter bet going on right now between Christian the betting is cool guy, where he and a tennis capper had a bet where the tennis capper was beating the line by about 2% and the juice was nearly 3% and the guy was still winning over 2000+ bets. So Christian bet the guy he could not keep that record up because he is not beating the line but the guy has literally kept winning and has not stopped I think its another 500 bets and they bet 1000 bets total and the guy is doing just as good as he was. So he would laugh at my argument and is making a few people look dumb because he cant beat the line and just keeps winning. now is that guy survivorship bias? I would say hell no, I really think the guy has skill and somehow he can find line bias over a large sample size. He is not unique but is very very very rare or it just could be survivorship bias and eventually he will lose like everyone else who does not beat the lineComment -
Gaze73SBR MVP
- 01-27-14
- 3291
#70That's exactly my style. Line bias is very real. In fact there are leagues where you can bet based purely on certain odds ranges because the lines are so biased. If there is an odds-based trend halfway through the season it usually continues until the end of it.Comment
SBR Contests
Collapse
Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
Collapse
#1 BetMGM
4.8/5 BetMGM Bonus Code
#2 FanDuel
4.8/5 FanDuel Promo Code
#3 Caesars
4.8/5 Caesars Promo Code
#4 DraftKings
4.7/5 DraftKings Promo Code
#5 Fanatics
#6 bet365
4.7/5 bet365 Bonus Code
#7 Hard Rock
4.1/5 Hard Rock Bet Promo Code
#8 BetRivers
4.1/5 BetRivers Bonus Code