[Hman]

Best bets for Colts-Texans

ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Where does the betting value lie in Saturday's matchup? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson give their picks to help you place your bets.


Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Thursday afternoon.

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans(-1.5)

Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Indianapolis




Sharp: The Texans and Colts are in different positions as they head into the postseason. The Texans arestumbling into the postseason, having lost two of their last four games with a comeback win over the New York Jets and a win over the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts are the hot team, having won four straight.


Houston's defensive strength is against the run, and in two meetings this year, the Colts have intentionally avoided running on the Texans. The Colts passed on 69 percent of plays combined on early downs in the first half. That's a problem for Houston, because the Texans' pass defense ranks No. 26 over the past month and No. 30 against explosive passes.


Meanwhile, the Texans return the services of WR Keke Coutee for the first time since he left their Week 12 game with a hamstring injury. Without WRs Will Fuller and Demaryius Thomas, getting Coutee back would be big for the Houston offense. However, the Texans are a run-first team and began passing more often only lately, during games missed by RB Lamar Miller, who also returns for this contest.


Lean: Colts -1.5

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Johnson: My projections for this AFC wild-card game are Texans -1.7 with a total of 48.2. These teams rank so similarly offensively and defensively that it is hard to find an angle that gives either side a significant advantage outside of the fact the game is being played in Houston. The Texans' biggest strength this season was their ability to limit their opponents' rushing attack (3.4 yards per carry, which ranked No. 1 in the NFL). Well, the Colts do their damage through the air, ranking in the bottom third in the league in yards per carry, rushing yards percentage and rushing play percentage.


I envision a game plan from Indianapolis that doesn't waste precious plays and possessions trying to run against this Houston front. We've seen the total move up to as high as 49 at a few sportsbooks after opening at 47, which lines up with the idea the Colts may be throwing the ball even more regularly than they are already accustomed to. It may ultimately take a few drives before they really open things up, so I'll be following closely and looking to grab an in-game over wager at (hopefully) a better number than we have at the outset when they do.


Pick: Pass

[Hman]

No opinion on this material fellas, posting it per request

[KingKolzig]

interesting. ty hilton was limping badly at the end of last weeks game i wonder how healthy he really is

[Mr KLC]

Johnathan Joseph on TY Hilton saying "I'm going to my 2nd home." "Sounds good. It's easy to say it..We can call this division our division." (On when he hears stuff like that?) "That's for clowns.That's for TV.That's what they do. U put something in their face anybody can say it"