Hypothetical gambling question...

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  • The Giant
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-21-12
    • 21480

    #1
    Hypothetical gambling question...
    Wofford is playing a college basketball game at Duke.

    The line inexplicably opens at pick.

    An hour later it's Wofford -2.

    Who are you betting on?
  • Smoke
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-09-09
    • 48111

    #2
    Duke ml
    Comment
    • RudyRuetigger
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 08-24-10
      • 65084

      #3
      Unc +4
      Comment
      • Wrongside
        SBR MVP
        • 09-26-15
        • 3579

        #4
        Duke, Lol. Only cause this team is so disciplined (and talented) and went on a bunch of trips together and stuff.
        Comment
        • jjgold
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 07-20-05
          • 388179

          #5
          Duke although poorly coached
          Comment
          • Slipknot26
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 07-17-15
            • 5046

            #6
            Nobody , going to find out starters before placing my wager .
            Maybe a suspension or STD
            Comment
            • pavyracer
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 04-12-07
              • 82882

              #7
              Originally posted by The Giant
              Wofford is playing a college basketball game at Duke.

              The line inexplicably opens at pick.

              An hour later it's Wofford -2.

              Who are you betting on?
              I would call the hospitals in Raleigh-Durham area to find out where the Duke bus crashed.
              Comment
              • MinnesotaFats
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 12-18-10
                • 14758

                #8
                Generally i fade the public based on line movements and increase my wagers along the way.

                Its profitable over a week. Generally the initial line is accurate sans injuries. Hit 50-55% but with increased wagers you can make $$

                I view it as coin toss bets w a slight edge based on linesmaker knowledge vs public
                Comment
                • TheMoneyShot
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 02-14-07
                  • 28672

                  #9
                  I think you have to use another example as "hypothetical".

                  Because taking Duke is a no brainer against anyone.... regardless of line movement.... especially near pick em
                  Comment
                  • BuckyOne
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-02-15
                    • 2728

                    #10
                    If your hypothetical question was a post time scenario-I would hypothetically take Duke. At openers I am going to need to know the reason for the move.
                    Comment
                    • JayLA
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 09-11-12
                      • 7806

                      #11
                      If it were wofford +2, wofford. But in this case, Duke ml.
                      Comment
                      • Venom72
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-05-16
                        • 2041

                        #12
                        Originally posted by pavyracer
                        I would call the hospitals in Raleigh-Durham area to find out where the Duke bus crashed.
                        Lmao
                        Comment
                        • Al Masters
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 04-29-06
                          • 6940

                          #13
                          None,bookmakers are throwing a bad line out.

                          Bet it and lose.. then you will lose
                          Bet it and win...they will tell you that
                          it was a bad line you get a refund.

                          Bookmaker is freeing rolling you.. you the sucker.
                          Comment
                          • DrunkHorseplayer
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 05-15-10
                            • 7719

                            #14
                            I would take Wofford because if Duke looks too good to be true...
                            Comment
                            • 19th Hole
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 03-22-09
                              • 18978

                              #15
                              Who is Duke, Alex?
                              Comment
                              • danshan11
                                SBR MVP
                                • 07-08-17
                                • 4101

                                #16
                                your question is a really good one, if a line opens at pick and moves 2 points what does that do to a couple things

                                bettor psych, most people think its a sharp move and bet it with them and keep pushing it up against the real sharps pushing back to 2 if 2 is the magic number per se
                                reality its probably too late to do anything so tailing it will put you back at a coin flip with juice
                                I do not think it is any more indicative of the actual result in any way
                                like if you could catch all the games that move a certain size jump and bet them we would win more or beat the line. I think at the end the line is still sharp.
                                Comment
                                • danshan11
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 07-08-17
                                  • 4101

                                  #17
                                  i think one way you can really see this is pretty much most major market games, they breathe go up 1 or 2 and come back down 1 or 2 and settle somewhere, I think it is kinda like stocks, they test the walls both ways and if there is enough pressure they push through

                                  start at pick and if a few bets come in on A they move to -1 see if they got any support at -1 if they do it stays there if its heavy pressure they push to -2 and now if it stops getting action at -2 they fade it back toward -1 and back and forth
                                  Comment
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