MLB : Contrarian Play

**jjgold** · 09-05-18, 10:59 AM

Sammy I love that word

Nobody even knows what it means and there’s no basis to apply it to gambling

It’s a fun word to justify a wager

God Bless

**Sam Odom** · 09-05-18, 11:02 AM

Sammy wearing Red

**KVB** · 09-05-18, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

Are you sure about that Sammy? Who are you going against here? The public? The money?

Why do you call it contrarian?

Originally posted by jjgold

Sammy I love that word

Nobody even knows what it means and there’s no basis to apply it to gambling

Wrong.

We've been regressing contrarian angles for years.

It's not the information, it's how you use it that matters.

**Sam Odom** · 09-05-18, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Are you sure about that Sammy?

being a winner ? NO

properly classified ? YES

**LT Profits** · 09-05-18, 11:15 AM

Red Sox have minor league lineup.

**KVB** · 09-05-18, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

being a winner ? NO

properly classified ? YES

You answered two questions I never asked.

Gold's wrong point is all about a perception of classification.

I didn't ask you about whether not it was classified right or wrong, I asked this...

Originally posted by KVB

Are you sure about that Sammy? Who are you going against here? The public? The money?

Why do you call it contrarian?..

**Sam Odom** · 09-05-18, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by KVB

You answered two questions I never asked.

Learn that from Hillary

**icon** · 09-05-18, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

Looking like a winnah early.

**Sam Odom** · 09-05-18, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

Learn that from Hillary

Sir Edmund Hillary

**KVB** · 09-05-18, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

Learn that from Hillary

**KVB** · 09-05-18, 11:54 AM

Sammy my sources indicate that the public has bought the Over, the tickets are on the Over, but the money disagrees with the public and is on the Under.

Neither side is extreme but the distance between those two numbers would begin to put the Under on my Contrarian Fund radar.

I am not in this game, but when we look across the books and the moves made relative to percentages being reported I see what I consider (based on extensive history and record keeping of the individual books through many years) sharper moves on the Under.

These moves are weak in the analysis and even get classified as steam at one point, but steam following a sharp, market moving style move.

Those sharper moves are known to be right more often than not but the books are known to attract steam as well in order to take a position.

When I add this information into the line, there was no bet here as the best number was steamed down.

In that respect, I can see how you went against the movement, after moving a whole point, but is it contrarian or did you just counter sharp money that eclipsed the public pressure? I use the term contrarian a lot on SBR, the definition might seem simple but there are many factors at play.

On another note, the KC moneyline is looking more and more like a good shot from that Contrarian perspective. Both the tickets and the money are on Cleveland and KC is a good spot from a forecast perspective.

**Sam Odom** · 09-05-18, 12:39 PM

NOT looking good

**fourlokobro** · 09-05-18, 12:48 PM

Good thought KVB, so in one sentence, explain why I'm flawed in thinking a contrarian play just meant you bet late on a lean bc of steam on the opposite side

**KVB** · 09-05-18, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

NOT looking good

Game not Over, you can still win easily, but I think you can see the perils countering what was basically strong reverse line movement, not a contrarian play.

Did you get any KC, down 1-0 KC has them where they want them.

**KVB** · 09-05-18, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by fourlokobro

Good thought KVB, so in one sentence, explain why I'm flawed in thinking a contrarian play just meant you bet late on a lean bc of steam on the opposite side

In this game the contrarian play here would have been the Under which would have been the same side/direction as the steam, but that's not always the case because line movement and steam are just small factors that are used in different ways.

**Sam Odom** · 09-05-18, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

NOT looking good

Braves heard Sammy... Know Sammy to be their #1 fan

**LT Profits** · 09-05-18, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

NOT looking good

**lakerboy** · 09-05-18, 01:50 PM

Nice call

**Slipknot26** · 09-05-18, 01:53 PM

Atlanta's middle relief is total garbage

**Slipknot26** · 09-05-18, 02:42 PM

Unbelievable how bad the relief is and it's been known .
Total garbage

**LT Profits** · 09-05-18, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by Slipknot26

Unbelievable how bad the relief is and it's been known .
Total garbage

Especially vs. minor league lineup, although Boston may have used regulars to pinch hit late.

**hotcross** · 09-05-18, 03:26 PM

MLB teams were 487-0 when leading by 6 runs entering the 8th inning this season

**newton0038** · 09-05-18, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by hotcross

MLB teams were 487-0 when leading by 6 runs entering the 8th inning this season

487-1 now