Hey Everybody! Rudy Doesn't Like Me!

[KVB]

Great, now I feel included.

Go ahead Rudy bump all the threads you want, post the links in here, let's learn from any mistakes.

Please Rudy, bump all those losing threads I started.

I'm sure, if I haven't bumped them already for learning purposes, then there is something I have missed.

I bump my losers Rudy, all the time. So let's break them down.

Please advocate for the Forum so we can figure out what went wrong in my losing threads.

[Sam Odom]

unnecessary

[jts1207]

Giving him the attention hes begging for. Will only get worse when HUAD posts his apology thread later today.

[Auto Donk]

the self-proclaimed "wolfpack" is at it again.....

real "tough guys" (but only in the michael cohen sense of the phrase).....




someone needs to call their owner and tell them they got out and are roaming the sbr streets again...... (this guy):

[KVB]

unnecessary

No Sammy, necessary.

I mostly bypass Rudy, but all I've ever heard him have against me is that I abandon losing threads.

He bumped one that went weeks longer than expected and wasn't abandoned, I left a post explaining why I wasn't continuing it, wasn't winning or losing didn't even have bets, just tracking against every game.

I bump my losers for education purposes, far more than my winners. I don't like to bump winners, although recently there's been a run.

Rudy is searching, Rudy will find that I post bets that lose, but Rudy won't find that I am avoiding that.

Sammy, Rudy is berried and, like Dawg, will have no teeth in trolling me and will only berry themselves doing so.

I am transparent, do not past post, and have had season long threads.

[KVB]

Almost forgot, my 5000th post was nominated 7 times and I was given 75 points by 6 different posters, but apparently Rudy threatens to bump it to my demise...

For my 5000^th post I would like to start a series of threads known as Words of Wisdom. While I considered offering something I’ve already posted or recent words of money management, I decided on something new.

I’ve often mentioned that it’s not that gamblers don’t know; it’s that so much they know is wrong. In the CFL thread poster Ra77er asked a question that offers a teachable moment.



Remember, this is indeed a game of numbers if you want to succeed and many bettors, when comparing stats between teams, often use means instead of medians. Doing so will cause errors in your work.

The first lesson is in conclusions and behavior. I’ve mentioned in the past that there are as many ways to handicap as there are handicappers and bettors, when comparing teams, use all kinds of stats. When bettors use means when comparing teams, get false evidence, then fail, they often conclude that the statistics used were the wrong ones.

They move on to other angles, other stats, and then continue to use means and continue to fail. What they don’t realize is that it’s often not the stats used that is the problem, it’s the use of means. This cycle can go on for as long as a bettor lets it.

The mean and the median can be different numbers but are often close. First let’s address the problems with averaging stats.

Let’s keep it simple and, simply put, using means when comparing stats between teams will cause errors whenever both teams are above or below the mean. It fools the player because you can, at times produce a valid result, as when medians are used, but that is coincidental.

Let’s use an example. Let’s compare the Eagles to Falcons using yardage stats. Let’s say, for simplicity, that the average yards per game in the NFL come to 160 yards. We know it is closer to twice that but let’s keep it simple. In our scaled down example, let’s say the Eagles gain an average of 200 yards per game and the Falcons give up 200 yards per game.

To project the Eagles total yards gained against the Falcons, the natural tendency for the bettor is to take the average of the two: yards gained by Eagles plus yards allowed by Falcons divided by two, which would produce a prediction of 200 yards per game.

Does that sound right to you? Think about it. Using means, we are saying a better than league average Eagles team that’s “worth” 200 yards a game is going to be held to its “normal” 200 yards per game by a less than average poor Falcons defense?

That’s a mistake and it will show. Instead of trying another stat and again averaging the two, try this…

Add the yardage gained to the opponent’s yardage allowed and then subtract the league average.

Now we get 400 – 160 = 240. Let’s think about it again. Now we’re saying the Eagles good offense should get more yards against the poor Falcon defense than they would usually get against their average opponents.

That makes a little better sense. Now let’s talk about the advantage of medians. Ra77er brought up anomaly type situations and how the mean would take it into consideration. While this is true, is that what we want?

Let’s say, in our scaled down example that the wheels come off in a game and those pesky Falcons give up 400 yards. They are way behind, injuries, send in the backups, etc. and don’t give a shit. In the next three games let’s say they give up 180, 220, and 200 yards per game. If you average these four games you’ll come to 250 yards per game while the median is 210.

In a sport like the NFL teams tend to revert to a norm, whatever their specific norm is. By using medians, you can better remove those outlier results that aren’t exactly indicative of a team’s normal performances.

Winning gamblers have learned to compare what is relevant to staying ahead of the marketplace and often times those outlier results are more of an influence on perception than reality. This too should be taken into account.

One more note about means and medians. I mentioned that means can fool players because often times they can produce a valid figure, but it’s a mere coincidence.

Let’s say the Eagles gain 200 yards per game and the Falcons give up 120 yards per game. Averaging the two will yield the same result as adding them together and subtracting 160.

And that is why bettors can be fooled. When one team is above average and one team below average, you can get close to a valid figure, and this happens often. Eventually averaging between teams will produce errors while the method described above will avoid these errors.

Like I’ve said before, track your bets and why you made them folks; this can become the most valuable piece of information you can process. Not even the most advanced syndicates and bettors have that information.

That is, until we make you. But that’s for another thread.

May these words of wisdom put you onto some winners or take you off of some losers...

[firedawg]

Lmao
Rudy is up in all yalls crawls



Lololololol

[Auto Donk]

Lmao
Rudy is up in all yalls crawls



Lololololol

quit posting, put on that bra I sent you, and get on skype and show me those manboobs you're sportin, my little chihuahua......


speaking of "crawls", crawl across the floor with those mantitties hangin' for me.....

oh yeah....

just like that.....

[firedawg]

quit posting, put on that bra I sent you, and get on skype and show me those manboobs you're sportin, my little chihuahua......

Sikkkkoooo

[Auto Donk]

Sikkkkoooo

bark for me, my little chihuahua, BARK!!!!!!!!!!

i WANT that hi-pitched bark, my little chihuahua.....

[RudyRuetigger]

wow what a thread backfire

i never would do this to you because i do not feel you are that important

[sourtwist]

Everyone else loves you

[RudyRuetigger]

Everyone else loves you

ok thanks

MAKES ME FEEL BETTER

now mods, please start giving infractions for these threads

THANKS

[KVB]

So much for the Player's Advocate.

I guess we have nothing to break down and go over for today.

[Auto Donk]

is he gone again already?

no surprise there.....

guy was his own worst enemy.....

but well-deserved.....

[turtledoves]

maybe you should focus on you and stop worrying about others. what am i doing to offend rudy? why is he offended by my popularity? maybe he's jealous of your POTM awards and is threatened by your fire. have you tried being nicer?

[KVB]

It's Trudy, he fights with everybody. It's not about being nice, or he wouldn't follow me around.

He is having trouble making good on his promise to prove his lies, of course.

This is his chance.

This is a nice, cordial thread and in the original post I am looking for a constructive discussion. This is about teaching lessons, that is focusing on me.

Believe me, not only have I been nice, I am being very nice now.

Remember, this thread, despite the title, is about me and the education I provide.

[RudyRuetigger]

look

i came under this new name as a sharp

i DECLINED THAT and said no im really not

so now i just expose guys like that

you posters should thank me



but here are the facts


i say nonsharp over and over and people hate me

50% of those are done within a week

another 50% of those that make it 1 week are done within 2 weeks

so on and so on


bascally only posters that hate me are losers and democrats


so basically all losers

[cincinnatikid513]

hey guys if u dont hear from me after today check the news, going w my bro meet some guy hes buying a car off facebook marketplace some 20 year old kid selling a 2012 nissan for only 2500, could be a trap hoping we dont get robbed or worse

[KVB]

hey guys if u dont hear from me after today check the news, going w my bro meet some guy hes buying a car off facebook marketplace some 20 year old kid selling a 2012 nissan for only 2500, could be a trap hoping we dont get robbed or worse

Stay safe Cinci and be aware of your surroundings.

[cincinnatikid513]

Stay safe Cinci and be aware of your surroundings.

i,made it out ok but my bro is taking him grocery store, he thinks hes gonna be able cash a 3rd party check for 2500, he could be pissed when he finds out has wait and deposit his own bank

[cincinnatikid513]

my brother said , the whole car stunk of weed, pretty sure he was high as duck, flakes of weed everywhere in glovebox, he dropped the kid off so he's safe, hope the guy won't be pissed or change his mind tommorow

[rkelly110]

Great, now I feel included.

Go ahead Rudy bump all the threads you want, post the links in here, let's learn from any mistakes.

Please Rudy, bump all those losing threads I started.

I'm sure, if I haven't bumped them already for learning purposes, then there is something I have missed.

I bump my losers Rudy, all the time. So let's break them down.

Please advocate for the Forum so we can figure out what went wrong in my losing threads.

Join the crowd.

[KVB]

Rudy quit being a whiny little bitch and post something constructive.

I have been nice to you and never once said I hate you. I don't hate you.

Now quit being a bitch and post something constructive or get the fukk out of here.

[RudyRuetigger]

who won thread









oh wait




i posted in it


NEVERMIND

[Auto Donk]

who won thread









oh wait




i posted in it


NEVERMIND

unhinged....

hiLIARy was never this bad.....

rudy snap out of it

[turtledoves]

maybe a friendship offering in the form of a gift?

[turtledoves]

Rudy quit being a whiny little bitch and post something constructive.

I have been nice to you and never once said I hate you. I don't hate you.

Now quit being a bitch and post something constructive or get the fukk out of here.

you don't actually expect him to post anything constructive, you are just pointing it out to sbr and callign him a bitch. you even address everybody in the title. you never expected any fruitful conversations or contributions from rudy
Hey Everybody! Rudy Doesn't Like Me!

[RudyRuetigger]

why didnt kvb post in the thread with his loser yesterday or make a new thread regarding it

hes a clown that takes the simplest concepts and tries to impress new posters

it is sad and why i have to embarrass him

[Auto Donk]

troll troll troll.....

give it up, Rudy.....

this look is your absolute worst yet.....

[turtledoves]

why didnt kvb post in the thread with his loser yesterday or make a new thread regarding it

hes a clown that takes the simplest concepts and tries to impress new posters

it is sad and why i have to embarrass him

who are you trying to impress by calling out his losing picks? have you ever considered ignoring him? you must really believe that his posts are falsehoods and he is a fraud, so maybe you feel like you are protecting new posters? are you trying to form an anti-kvb community? i'll join

[RudyRuetigger]

who are you trying to impress by calling out his losing picks? have you ever considered ignoring him? you must really believe that his posts are falsehoods and he is a fraud, so maybe you feel like you are protecting new posters? are you trying to form an anti-kvb community? i'll join

i am the posters advocate

i dont want new signups losing their money following clowns that know nothing

that ok with you, nonpro broke dikk fukk?

[KVB]

why didnt kvb post in the thread with his loser yesterday or make a new thread regarding it...

You mean the thread where I had 6 plays and won 4 of them?

Rudy, that would be bumping winners, I don't really do that much.

Maybe you should look, because I'm pretty sure I bumped the losing Total in Detroit.

All you can do is lie about poster for attention.

Rudy you are terrible at this.

You can't even try.

[RudyRuetigger]

kvb are you still replying to me when you said you wouldnt?

wow

that is more than my retiring threads and atleast i know im joking there

[turtledoves]

i am the posters advocate

i dont want new signups losing their money following clowns that know nothing

that ok with you, nonpro broke dikk fukk?

so you admit then that posters are interested in KVB's contributions? do you have the ability to challenge KVB on a specific argument, game, or anything in general besides name calling? why don't you challenge KVB's picks? come up with funnier insults at least