I am quite new to handicapping and general sportsbook betting which means less knowledge and experience but definitely not an ignorance. After a quite successful run over the Easter I was gradually taken over by a fixation to find an answer to the most essential question of the business – where are the odds coming from?
Now let me rephrase it this way. We are facing more or less uniform odds for particular events daily as there are not significant discrepancies among bookies online. There cannot be a place for differences simply because of arbitrage opportunities and a high degree of information mobility in the market. This is perfectly clear and rational. Although the market is flooded with hundreds and thousands of bookies, I do not subscribe to the idea that they arrive at the quoted spread values or totals independently all by themselves. The common sense tells me that an absolute majority of them are followers that take on some guidance from the leaders. So here is a million dollar question – who is the person that sends its report on the expected play values which is then taken over as a universal truth by all bookies? Is this some Joe sitting in a bunker 200 feet below desert in Nevada or is it some conglomerate of betting crooks (well, pardon me – a group of insightful cappers) that decides on these values and odds and publishes them first on their books? I am not talking here about some niche markets like Italian water polo championships or Estonia’s national soccer underleague. I mean big markets like NBA for instance. As I am typing this odds for only 6 games out of 9 have been published for tonight. In a few hours we will see odds for the remaining three games popping-up magically at all sportsbooks. Until then nobody is willing to put up any offers. So who tells the bookies to start with that particular opening line for the day once they open? Who is that market mover that sets the entire market on the roll?
Now let me rephrase it this way. We are facing more or less uniform odds for particular events daily as there are not significant discrepancies among bookies online. There cannot be a place for differences simply because of arbitrage opportunities and a high degree of information mobility in the market. This is perfectly clear and rational. Although the market is flooded with hundreds and thousands of bookies, I do not subscribe to the idea that they arrive at the quoted spread values or totals independently all by themselves. The common sense tells me that an absolute majority of them are followers that take on some guidance from the leaders. So here is a million dollar question – who is the person that sends its report on the expected play values which is then taken over as a universal truth by all bookies? Is this some Joe sitting in a bunker 200 feet below desert in Nevada or is it some conglomerate of betting crooks (well, pardon me – a group of insightful cappers) that decides on these values and odds and publishes them first on their books? I am not talking here about some niche markets like Italian water polo championships or Estonia’s national soccer underleague. I mean big markets like NBA for instance. As I am typing this odds for only 6 games out of 9 have been published for tonight. In a few hours we will see odds for the remaining three games popping-up magically at all sportsbooks. Until then nobody is willing to put up any offers. So who tells the bookies to start with that particular opening line for the day once they open? Who is that market mover that sets the entire market on the roll?