GS/TOR under 236

Sawyer · 04-04-10, 10:42 AM

I'm on Under as well, GL!

Domestic · 04-04-10, 10:54 AM

How come you guys like the under?

ATX · 04-04-10, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by Domestic

How come you guys like the under?

1. previous meetings, not a real strong indicator in this particular game, but it's a start. also home and away numbers offensively and defensively point more to the under than the over in this spot.

2. both teams shot over 55% in their last game. TOR has shot over 55% in their last 2 consecutive games and that is somewhat rare, that is a strong under indicator. On 3/13 TOR needed to shoot 43/76 for the total to reach exactly 236. the style of play of these two doesn't lend itself as much as I'd like to a low shooting percentage, but this total more than compensates.

3. Toronto was taken to OT last night by PHI. I don't think that is going to help their shooting. It will probably take away from their d as well, but not as much as their fg% (I hope). Also, Toronto has Cleveland up next. That doesn't affect the plan all that much, but I do tend to think that given the opportunity, Toronto tries to conserve energy in this game. Toronto is a paltry 5-13 ATS on zero days rest. I didn't even notice that until now as these kind of stats are often just negligible trends, but that does indicate a performance problem when not getting a day off. Glancing back at Toronto's B2B games this year there's not really very many games that approach this total. Obviously, differing playing styles from those teams needs to be accounted for, but I see a nod to this under from that perspective as well. Still worth a shot a 234 IMO.

Domestic · 04-04-10, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by ATX

1. previous meetings, not a real strong indicator in this particular game, but it's a start. also home and away numbers offensively and defensively point more to the under than the over in this spot. 2. both teams shot over 55% in their last game. TOR has shot over 55% in their last 2 consecutive games and that is somewhat rare, that is a strong under indicator. On 3/13 TOR needed to shoot 43/76 for the total to reach exactly 236. the style of play of these two doesn't lend itself as much as I'd like to a low shooting percentage, but this total more than compensates. 3. Toronto was taken to OT last night by PHI. I don't think that is going to help their shooting. It will probably take away from their d as well, but not as much as their fg% (I hope). Also, Toronto has Cleveland up next. That doesn't affect the plan all that much, but I do tend to think that given the opportunity, Toronto tries to conserve energy in this game. Toronto is a paltry 5-13 ATS on zero days rest. I didn't even notice that until now as these kind of stats are often just negligible trends, but that does indicate a performance problem when not getting a day off. Glancing back at Toronto's B2B games this year there's not really very many games that approach this total. Obviously, differing playing styles from those teams needs to be accounted for, but I see a nod to this under from that perspective as well. Still worth a shot a 234 IMO.

Good stuff, thanks sir.